Record Update - 7 June 2009

Hooray, positive variance! A +19x week is an unusually lucky week. It'd be nice to string another week like this together soon.



More precisely, hooray, Pirates and Rockies! Those teams were a little north of 16x between the two of them this week.



Don't worry, I'm sure I'll be back to my losing ways next week.

Sunday 6/7

More phone checking on the road today.

Plays
135p MIL/ATL o9.5 +116 2x
135p NYM/WAS o10 +114 2x
205p Cleveland +115 2x
215p Colorado +124 2x

Streak for the Cash
12p North Carolina vs. East Carolina
7p Florida vs. Southern Miss
Current Streak: 4

I ran the numbers for the French (excuse me, Freedom) Final, but it was only 59/41 in favor of o3.5 sets, so I passed. The Heels are a disgusting -380/+315 favorite. The rest of the day is going to be all Super Regional action, with the Gay-tors and Sun Devils as the other looks.

Saturday 6/6 - PM

These picks are The Right Stuff.

Plays
705p Texas +197 2x
715p Colorado +125 2x

Colorado was close to being a triple again.

Streak for the Cash
410p Dodgers vs. Philadelphia
Current Streak: 3

I struggled with picking sides tonight. There was a possibility of Mine That Bird, Astros, Dbacks, but I opted against it because I don't have a clue which side is right for Mine That Bird and there is a decent chance that the Astros' game wouldn't end in time. If I knew for sure that the Astros would be done in less than three hours, I would have probably gone with the other option. Instead, I'll be on the Wings at 8p.

Saturday 6/6 - AM

More traveling today...

Plays
105p Kansas City +168 2x

Leans
705p TEX (Holland) +185 @ BOS (Lester)
710p CIN (Maloney) +124 vs. CHC (Dempster)
715p COL (Cook) +117 @ STL (Wellemeyer)

Streak for the Cash
12p North Carolina vs. East Carolina
Current Streak: 2

Were either of the 9a options good plays?

Friday 6/5

This weekend is going to be real busy. I've got to make a quick trip to the parents' tonight. Then, if you take a look at what concerts are going to be around Philadelphia tomorrow night, you'll see how much TheFiancee owes me. Anyway, not a lot of time to screw around.

Plays
705p Texas +129 2x
815p Colorado +168 3x

It was everything I could do to pass Washington. I just don't want to deal with that team, even at a ridiculous number.

Streak for the Cash
7p LSU vs. Rice
Current Streak: 0

I'll be on Fullerton later. Hopefully, college baseball games take less than 3.5 hours.

Also, flip Fernando Gonzalez. That douchebag was up 4-1 in the fifth set before losing 5 straight games. Tennis is stupid.

Leans 6/5

Oversleeping sucks.

Leans
WAS, PIT, COL, TB, TEX, CLE, MIN

Streak for the Cash
Gonzalez, then FSU, then UVA (if I can). Make sure you play FSU, they are the biggest favorite on the board this morning.
Current Streak: 1

Thursday 6/4 - PM

I really need to start downloading podcasts to my phone. I just spent the last 45 minutes watching Little People, Big World and Jon and Kate Plus Eight at the gym. I'm rooting for the terrorists now.

Plays
810p Colorado +156 2x
815p Cincinnati +181 2x

I was about to drop the triple hammer on the CHC/ATL over, especially after checking Wagerline.



But then I got really confused when I checked SIA and Sportsbook, which are both full of squares.




I don't fully understand this. The number looks like it is screaming for under action with Zambrano and Jurrjens on the hill. Whatever. I'm in a deep enough hole I can pass this and sleep well tonight.

Streak for the Cash
7p Atlanta vs. Chicago
Current Streak: 1

Unless somebody can find some MLL lines, this is the only worthwhile play tonight.

Thursday 6/4 - AM

Plays
1205p Pittsburgh +106 2x
205p Oakland +154 2x
405p Kansas City +155 2x

Thought about the Tribe as well.

Leans
710p ATL (Jurrjens) -127 vs. CHC (Zambrano)
805p COL (Hammel) +150 @ HOU (Rodriguez)
815p CIN (Harang) +172 @ STL (Carpenter)

The Reds are the most likely of those three. It won't matter because they are all going to get shutout.

Streak for the Cash
930a S. Stoser/S. Kuznetsova 2 Sets
1241p T. Woods (win or draw) over Els/Johnson
Current Streak: 1

If I did the math correctly, straight sets has a 65.7% JA adjusted shot of hitting. I used Pinny's set odds to come up with it. Later, I'll take Tiger w/d vs. Els/Johnson. Tiger is -140 at The Greek to begin with and The Streakmaster is giving ties to Tiger.

Wednesday 6/3

Stupid Dutch.

Plays
705p Kansas City +140 2x
810p Oakland +128 2x
815p Cincinnati +118 2x
1010p Arizona +187 2x
1010p Baltimore +120 2x

Arguments could be made for Oakland and Arizona to be triples.

Leans
1235p PIT (Ohlendorf) +100 vs. NYM (Pelfrey)
1235p TOR (Tallet) --105 vs. LAA (Lackey)
105p DET (Willis) +119 vs. BOS (Wakefield)
205p OAK (Anderson) +149 @ CHW (Buehrle)

Streak for the Cash
1010p Yes - Ichiro extends Streak
Current Streak: 1

Ichiro will be the backup play every night from here until it loses unless I find something else interesting along the way. See here for more explanation.

Leans 6/3

I went to bed last night happy because I was 2-0 on the night after showing a profit on Monday. Never be happy as a gambler, because then things like this happen:


I suppose that's just the way baseball is going to be.

Leans
705p PIT (Ohlendorf) +106 @ NYM (Pelfrey)
705p TEX (Feldman) +161 @ NYY (Pettitte)
705p KC (Bannister) +134 @ TB (Niemann)
710p ATL (Lowe) -130 vs. CHC (Lilly)
810p OAK (Outman) +120 @ CHW (Richard)
815p CIN (Cueto) +122 @ STL (Lohse)
1005p SD (Young) -112 vs. PHL (Cueto)
1010p ARZ (Garland) +180 @ LAD (Billingsley)
1010p BAL (Bergsen) +113 @ SEA (Vargas)

Regardless of last night's post, Oakland stood out to me this morning.

Streak for the Cash
8a S. Kuznetsova over S. Williams
Current Streak: 0

The Ruskie is a very small dog to Serena, but you have to imagine Serena's line is inflated. I went with this instead of the Federer under, which is marginally better, because I want to play something this afternoon (which will be NED w/d) and don't want to get burned like I did yesterday.

Tuesday 6/2

Thank you, Andy Murray, for not only losing, but doing so in enough time that I couldn't play the soccer prop this afternoon. Even though I would have lost the afternoon prop, I like scoreboard watching.

Plays
705p Pittsburgh +141 2x
705p LAA/TOR o8 +112 2x
810p Cleveland +163 2x
1005p PHL/SD u7.5 -116 2x
1010p Arizona +113 2x

I'm passing Washington, even though the consensus data is there. It's probably -EV and definitely square, but I can't handle that flipping team at the moment and sometimes sanity is more important than value.

Streak for the Cash
8p Florida vs. Washington
Current Streak: 0

None of the 7p games interest me, so I'm going with biggest chalk.

Leans 6/2

Don't be fooled, today's card isn't nearly as good as yesterday's.

Leans
705p PIT (Duke) +150 vs. NYM (Santana)
705p WAS (Stammen) +141 vs. SF (Lincecum)
705p DET (Porcello) -137 vs. BOS (Matsuzaka)
805p COL (Jimenez) -130 @ HOU (Paulino)
810p CLE (Huff) +153 @ MIN (Slowey)
1005p SD (Peavy) -170 vs. PHL (Bastardo)
1010p ARZ (Haren) +108 @ LAD (Wolf)
1010p BAL (Hernandez) +136 @ SEA (Bedard)

Streak for the Cash
915a A. Murray over F. Gonzalez (French Open)
Current Streak: 0

I might as well go with Turkey LMV in the soccer prop later, with my streak at no better than W1.

Monday 6/1

I'd been forgetting about reverse line movement for a while. I remembered it today and used it to help pare the card down.

Plays
705p Pittsburgh +100 3x
805p Colorado +124 2x
810p OAK/CHW o9 +109 2x
1010p Arizona +155 3x

The Buccos and Rizo would have been 3x plays anyway. It's been some time since I've seen Wagerline numbers like that.

Streak for the Cash
8p Florida vs. Washington
Current Streak: 0

Woo, WCWS. It's been responsible for the last four Streak victories.

Where the Value Lies - Week 9

Surprise, surprise, the Natinals are the most underrated team again this week. Sooner or later, they are going to start playing 43% ball. Wikipedia says so. I'm considering doing everyone a favor and putting the Nats on the DNP list. At least that way everyone else can benefit when they immediately start winning.

These are deviations from third-order record through Saturday May 30th. Current deviations can be found here.

Underrated
Nationals -7.6
Indians -5.3
Rays -3.6
Rockies -3.2
Astros -2.3

Overrated
Rangers +3.9
Brewers +3.8
Phillies +3.4
Dodgers +3.0
Mariners +2.6

Using this method of evaluating teams, nothing sticks out as obvious plays early next week (other than the usual suspects). However, for the weekend, Rays/Yankees, Tribe/Sox, Twins/M's, Nats/Mets, and Rox/Cards all stand out as potential plays.

Leans 6/1

Thank God the Nationals have the day off.

Leans
705p PIT (Snell) +102 vs. NYM (Hernandez)
705p CLE (Sowers) +147 vs. NYY (Chamberlain)
805p COL (Cook) +131 @ HOU (Oswalt)
810p OAK (Cahill) +136 @ CHW (Colon)
815p CIN (Volquez) +110 @ STL (Wellemeyer)
1005p SD (Correia) +107 vs. PHL (Blanton)
1010p AZ (Buckner) +169 @ LAD (Kuroda)

Or basically the entire card. Hopefully, this gets knocked down a bit by this evening.

Streak for the Cash
Pass
Current Streak: 6

There is no point in playing either afternoon coin flip at W6. I'll probably be on Florida tonight.