2009 CFB Preview: USC

USC is the best choice after Florida to go undefeated this year, since they don't have to play Oklahoma/Texas. They are going to be favored by a lot in most of their games, but their hardest are on the road, in Columbus, Berkeley, Eugene, and South Bend.



Still, I can't imagine any other team besides the Gators being at least a touchdown favorite in every game, which USC would be in the best case scenario.*





You could get the Trojans at 8-1 at the Boyd's books in Vegas when I was out there. If you are high on USC, that's a solid price. Somewhat surprisingly, unless you think USC is slightly underrated, there is value in the under at 5Dimes, but it's probably not a large enough edge to tie up your money for 4 months.

* - Obviously, USC is not going to be an eight point favorite in Columbus even in the best case scenario because it's too early in the season

2009 CFB Preview: California

The Golden Bears are going to be a one man wrecking crew, so long as Tedford doesn't screw things up. Jahvid Best was the most explosive back in college football last year and there's no reason to think he won't continue that this year.



At least the Bears get USC at home. They have the best shot of anyone to knock off the Trojans this year (more on this tomorrow). Cal is also fortunate to catch Maryland and Minnesota in their descents back to their historical places in college football. When Cal scheduled them, Fridge looked competent and Glen Mason had turned Minnesota from a 3-8 Big Ten also ran into a 7-4 Big Ten also ran.





If you are high on Cal this year, then the 55-1 you could get at the Venetian when I was out there isn't so bad. The median odds put them at 90-1 to go undefeated in the regular season while the best case scenario puts the odds at 31-1. Yet another integer win total means no value there.

2009 CFB Preview: Oregon

Some people are forecasting Oregon to have a shot at second place in the Pac10 this year, which makes some sense the way they played down the stretch last year and a returning Jeremiah Masoli. The coaching change from Mike Belotti hasn't received a lot of mainstream press, but most seem to think that it won't be that big of a deal.



Like Rutgers in the Big East, the hardest games, USC, Cal, and Oregon State, all come in Eugene, which certainly helps. On the other hand, those three teams are a lot better than Pitt, WVU, and USF.





Having to go to Boise the first Thursday and a tough Pac10 leaves the Ducks with little room for error. Even in the best case scenario, they only get through the Pac10 unscathed 2.9% of the time and less than 1% of the time they go fully undefeated, mostly due to the trip to the Smurf Turf. With an integer win total, it's not really worth talking about whether there is value in their number.

Tomorrow, for Jonny, it's California.

2009 CFB Preview: Stanford

Stanford has a tough non-conference schedule, traveling to Wake and getting the 10-win Fighting Irish at home. Otherwise, they are a mediocre Pac 10 team, that the books aren't respecting quite yet.



Trying to get a handle on Wake and Stanford is tough, because there aren't a lot of common opponents to work with. I eventually came up with -2 assuming that Stanford was close to NC State. That, I think, is as good of an assumption as going Stanford +1 > Oregon State -6 > Cincy +3 > USF +7 > Miami (FL) -10.5 > Wake Forest, which comes close anyway.





I don't have a win total for Stanford, but 150-1 is a terrible value for them to win the national title. Things should get more interesting tomorrow when I look at Oregon (and UCLA).

2009 CFB Preview: Oregon State

Oregon State is going to be an average team is a conference that is going to be pretty good, but overshadowed by USC's dominance again. Unfortunately for the Beavers, they have to go to the Coliseum and Berkeley, which stacks the deck against them



Otherwise, the Beavers will be favored in every game save the Civil War, but not by much, leading to a non-descript average of 7 wins.





As has been the case for every team except West Virginia, there really isn't a whole lot of value here. The median probabilities show a 60% chance of going under 7.5 wins, which has value at -120, but the best case lines only give the under a 33% chance. It's clear that 100-to-1 has no value, though.

2009 CFB Preview: Pac 10

No real surprise here, USC is expected to be the class of the Pac 10. USC's implied probability of winning the conference is borderline absurd, but I guess that's what happens when you win the conference five years in a row. That said, with -250 and -300 out there, value likely lies somewhere else.



There is some question how good USC actually is, though. The Nugget places them as an 8.5 favorite at Cal, while Sportsbook only has the line set at 5. I split the difference and and went with USC being 10 points better on a neutral field. The hardest team to place in this ranking was Stanford. I only had the Cal line to go off of, so their spread standing is not precise.



At first blush, nothing really stands out on the team over/unders. We'll be revisiting these over the weekend once I start putting together individual team previews.



That's it for tonight. Tomorrow I'll take a look at the ACC and the Big Ten, saving the "best" two conferences for last.