Monday 10/19

All day, I was fairly confident that I was going to be on Marmalard tonight. It seemed like a good time to fade the Broncos with a team that has underwhelmed so far. And then nothing came together. The consensus data is 55/45 on the Broncos at Wagerline and, even worse, 50/50 at SIA. Even the total looks fairly split. Looks like a solid pass. Good luck if you play anything.

Sunday 10/18

Another awful college day yesterday. Hopefully it doesn't bleed into the pro side.

Earlies
1p Tampa Bay +3 +108 3x
1p NYG/NO u47 +109 3x

Middays
415p Oakland +14 -104 5x

Nightcap
820p Chicago +3.5 +105 3x

I'll be on Oakland in the afternoon and maybe Chicago for SNF. Good luck.

Leans NFL Week 6/CFB Week 7 Revisited

This college card is dangerous. I like a lot of the borderline plays you see below. I'll be quite content to only play 2 NFL games this weekend.

Definite Plays
12p Okla +3 vs. Tex
12p Pur +13.5 vs. tOSU
1220p Vandy +7.5 vs. UGa
1230p MTSU +4.5 vs. Miss St
330p UCLA +3.5 vs. Cal
330p NC St +2.5 @ BC
330p Fla -24.5 vs. Arky
6p GT +3 vs. VT

405p OAK +14 vs. PHL
830p SD -3.5 vs. DEN (Mon.)

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Wisky -2.5 vs. Iowa
330p Neb -10.5 vs. TTech
1015p Ariz St. -6.5 vs. Wash

1p TB +3 vs. CAR
1p WAS -6.5 vs. KC
820p CHI +3.5 @ ATL

Borderline Volume Plays
3p USU +8 vs. Nevada
330p Tulane +17 vs. Houston
6p SDSU +17 vs. BYU
8p SMU +7 vs. Navy

Leans NFL Week 6/CFB Week 7

Hopefully, this week goes better than last. At first glance, the college card doesn't look too bad, while the NFL only has two obvious plays.

Definite Plays
8p Tulsa +8.5 vs. Boise (Wed.)
745p USF +3 vs. Cincy (Thu.)
8p Rutgers +3 vs. Pitt (Fri.)
12p Okla +3 vs. Tex (Neutral)
12p Pur +14 vs. tOSU
1220p Vandy +7.5 vs. UGa
330p UCLA +3.5 vs. Cal
330p UF -24.5 vs. Arky
6p GT +3 vs. VT

1p TB +3 vs. CAR
405p OAK +14 vs. PHL

• All three weeknight games seem like they would be playable on a Saturday, let alone on a high volume weeknight.
• When I first saw the OU line, I figured we be on them. What exactly has Texas done this year?
• Purdue has outgained their opponents this year, yet are 1-5, because they turn the ball over way too much. At least Ohio State doesn't beat teams with defense and special teams.
• Which loss from last week was worse: Vandy in West Point or Georgia getting Crompton'd?
• GT was going to be favored by three in their game with the Hokies in the preseason. Are the
• Florida is laying 24.5 against a team that beat a Top 25 team by 2 TDs last week. I'm not thrilled about laying that many.
• Hokies are getting too much credit for Nebraska giving a game away and beating Miami the slop?
• I might as well get used to playing the Bucs and Raiders.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Wisky -3 vs. Iowa
330p USC -10 @ ND
330p NCSU +2.5 @ BC
745p Bama -17 vs. SCar
1015p Ariz St -7 vs. Wash

1p HOU +4.5 @ CIN
1p CLE +14 @ PIT
415p BUF +10 @ NYJ
820p CHI +3 @ ATL
835p SD -4 vs. DEN (Mon.)

• Not too often you see an unranked team laying three to a borderline Top 10 team.
• I'd rather get kicked in the junk by a mule than play USC.
• NCSU just got rocked by Duke, which I think is worse than getting rocked by VT.
• Bama is a weaker version of UF.
• None of that NFL garbage excites me.

Borderline Volume Plays
1230p MTSU +4.5 vs. Miss St
330p Tulane +16.5 vs. Hou
730p Ariz -4.5 vs. Stan

• That's an awfully short line for a Sun Belt team versus an SEC team.
• Like Joe Kemp wasn't making this list, even though The Pelican has been steamed to hell since it opened.
• I don't really care about the Pac 10 game.