Week 8 Mumme Poll Draft

TCU and Cincy finally gave me enough reason to knock Boise out of the Top 5. At this point, I think those two teams would be favored over anyone in the next seven on a neutral field, except USC.

Top Five
Florida
Alabama
Texas
TCU
Cincinnati

Next Seven
Boise State
Iowa
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
USC
Oregon
LSU

Teams 6-11 seem pretty solid to me in some order. I thought about lifting Penn State, Oklahoma State, or Pitt ahead of LSU, but I left it as is for continuity. I'm sure I'll address it again next week.

Saturday 10/24

Today is like the salad before the steak. This college card isn't very good and hopefully keeping things small will limit my losses.

First Half (12p-6p)
12p Virginia +5 +105 5x
1220p Mississippi -6.5 -104 3x
1230p Baylor +9.5 -103 3x
330p Clemson +4.5 -105 5x

Second Half (6p-12a)
7p Michigan State -2 +100 5x
1025p Arizona State +7 +100 3x

I don't know if Michigan State would have been a 5x play if the rest of the card didn't suck. The other three possibilities all had warts and I didn't feel like playing them.

So Goddamn angry at Sparty, so I played Sparky. Flip this.

Leans NFL Week 7/CFB Week 8 Revisited

Jesus, I am going broke on Sunday.

Definite Plays
12p UVa +5.5 vs. GT
1220p Ole Miss -6.5 vs. Arky
1230p Baylor +9.5 vs. Okie St
330p Clem +4.5 @ Miami
7p Sparty -1.5 vs. Iowa

1p KC +4.5 vs. SD
1p STL +13.5 vs. IND
1p CLE +9.5 vs. GB
1p TB +14.5 vs. NE
405p OAK +6 vs. NYJ
415p MIA +6 vs. NO
415p DAL -4 vs. ATL
820p ARZ +7 @ NYG
830p WAS +7 vs. PHL (Mon.)

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Indy +4.5 @ NW

1p PIT -4 vs. MIN

Borderline Volume Plays
7p Vandy +13.5 @ SCar
730p SMU +16 @ Hou
1015p Ariz St +6.5 @ Stan

I'm going to re-evaluate these later plays tomorrow evening. I'm not sure what combination, if any will make the card.

Friday 10/23

Pretty straightforward high volume spot. The line doesn't look totally ridiculous, but at the same time, consensus data has has been heavily weighted on the Knights, Scarlet Variety, all week.

8p Knights, Black Variety +10 +111 3x

Back with leans later. Good luck.

Thursday 10/22

Jonny pretty much summed up everything here. Even though it's a high volume spot, I just don't see enough to play North Carolina. Good luck if you are on the Heels.

Wednesday 10/21

I was waiting most of the afternoon for the Matchbook markets to get liquid for the alternative lines. Of course, the price moved four cents less than 5 minutes after I finally floated this.

8p UTEP +8 +101 3x

If the line hadn't pushed up during the afternoon today, this would have been a large play. Good luck.

Leans NFL Week 7/CFB Week 8

This college card is lackluster, but the NFL card is amazing. Vegas mentioned that he thinks this is the best card of the year. I agree with him and might take it a step further in that this is the best pro card I can remember.

Definite Plays
8p Army +10 vs. Rutgers (Fri.)
12p UVa +5.5 vs. GT
2p Baylor +9.5 vs. Okie St
330p Clem +4.5 @ Miami
7p Sparty -1 vs. Iowa

1p KC +4.5 vs. SD
1p STL +13 vs. IND
1p CLE +7 vs. GB
1p TB +14.5 vs. NE
415p MIA +6 vs. NO
835p WAS +7 vs. PHL (Mon.)

• Rutgers is definitely going to get me back for playing them against Pitt last Friday.
• Who's kidding who with those Virginia and Baylor lines?
• I assume the books knew that Clemson lost to Maryland when they set that line.
• The usual garbage suspects are there on the NFL card.
• Drew Brees lit up what some consider the best defense in the NFL for almost 50 points last week and they're laying less than a touchdown against Miami. Neat.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p UConn +7.5 @ WVU
7p Ole Miss -6.5 vs. Arky

1p PIT -4 vs. MIN
415p DAL -4 vs. ATL
820p ARZ +7 @ NYG

• I really can't find a whole lot to like about this college card. Neither of those college plays are terribly ugly.
• I'm not a huge fan of NFL chalk, but Dallas especially looks like a solid look against one loss Atlanta.

Borderline Volume Plays
730p SMU +16.5 @ Hou

• Are there any other small conference games that I should be watching?

Interestingly, even though their splits are large at Wagerline right now, there isn't a whole lot of action on Arizona State or Vandy right now. I'll look at those two further later in the week.

CFB Week 8 Line Guess Results

I've been out with the flu all week, so no commentary. I sucked again, but Sham is getting really good.

CFB Week 8 Line Guesses

I spent like 15 minutes on the guesses this week. I have a feeling the results will bear that out.