2009 CFB Preview: Big XII

Jonny and I were talking about Texas when the win expectancy calculations were being worked out a few weeks ago. The numbers seemed to show that Texas might actually have some value, despite being the fourth team on the board. The Big XII numbers bear that out.

Note that Oklahoma is the favorite to win the Big XII strictly by futures odds. Otherwise, there are no real surprises with Oklahoma State as the third most likely and Kansas and Nebraska battling it out for the North title.

Once getting to the spreads though, Texas is considered a few points better. The schedules are also working against OU, who has to travel to Nebraska and Kansas, while Texas misses the Huskers and gets the Jayhawks in Austin. Nebraska also likely has some futures value, though probably not as much as Texas.

The win expectancies aren't particularly surprising. Texas should have a better win expectation than OU. The rest of the conference falls in line accordingly. A few weeks ago, I'd hinted that I thought Texas would be better than OU and the numbers show it. Oklahoma has to replace a lot on both lines and most squares are only going to be looking at the skill position players they bring back. Bradford has barely been touched the last two years, which has been a huge part of their success. The Sooners are (currently) on my short list of early season fades.