2009 CFB Preview: ACC

As I had suspected, things got a bit harder once more teams got added into the mix. Like the Big East, the ACC is wide open this year. Unlike the Big East, there are some legitimately good teams in this conference.

Here is where things got a little hairy. It seems like within this conference, home field is worth a little bit more, somewhere around 4.5 or 5 points.

Take a look at these three lines:

Georgia Tech -4.5 vs. Clemson
Clemson -4.5 vs. Florida State
Florida State -4.5 vs. Georgia Tech

And here is another set:

Miami -4 vs. Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech -6 vs. Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech -4.5 vs. Miami

Those six lines were from the Golden Nugget. I got thrown for a little bit of a loop when Sportsbook set the GT/VT line at -2. It required a little fudging around with the numbers, but here are the spreads I came up with after adjusting for home field (again, worth 4.5-5 points).

There is some fuzziness to that order amongst the Top 5 and I could see arguments made for VT to be a little better. Regardless, after going through this exercise, I feel a lot better about my Georgia Tech future. If there is value in the ACC, it's with them.

Also, the win expectancies confirm GT as well. Even with Georgia, at Vandy, and at Miss State on the non-conference, GT still posts the second highest win expectancy.

Interestingly, Virginia Tech, who has Bama, Nebraska, and the revenge date with ECU on the non-conference, tops the list. After going through the spreads, it appears there is some value in the Hokie under.


adam said...

5.69 wins; fuck me. Maybe Ralph will get fired if Maryland doesn't make it to a bowl game this year.