Saturday 2/14

,
Here is a prime example of a game that probably would have been an automatic play last weekend. Baylor is attracting 71.83% of the action at Wagerline as a 5.5 point favorite against aTm. With my current line of thinking, the game never interested me. Is that 5.5 point line really set as a "trap line?" Baylor is 15-9 (3-7) and aTm is 17-7 (3-6). Are the teams really that different? Is the public perception truly that one sided? I don't think so. That's why the game didn't even register as a pass.

Earlies (12p-159p)
12p Georgetown +4.5 -120 2x
1p Arizona +4.5 +100 2x
Passes: Hall, Arky

Middays (2p-359p)
3p Alabama +2 -103 2x
330p Georgia +10 +104 2x
330p Kansas State +1 -111 2x

Appetizers (4p-559p)
4p Pittsburgh -15.5 -104 2x
4p Iowa +5.5 +108 2x
5p Southern Miss +12.5 -102 2x
Pass: Auburn

Dessert (6p-759p)
Passes: YSU, Oregon St

Nightcaps (8p-12a)
Passes: Wisky, SDSU

I can't find anything worthwhile tonight. There is no shame in passing a crappy card. Good luck if you play anything.

9 comments:

Maggie said...

SO - lesson learned from this new strategy is that WVU is a little more awesome than you originally thought? I know you grumble all the time about betting on them. What is your all time record with Huggie Bear?

am19psu said...

I'm 6-5-1 on WVU this year. They are by far the team I've wagered on the most. They are easily the team that is most underrated by the general public, which is weird since they made the Sweet Sixteen last year and have consistently been one of the better tourney teams in recent years.

Maggie said...

I did some research. The ring Belein had was from his Elite 8 run with WVU.

Have you done any more looking into breaking it down by conference? Do you think there are some teams that are more likely to be profitable than others?

Sarah said...

What about UNC? Have you noticed how they fare with their runs in the tournament?

am19psu said...

Have you done any more looking into breaking it down by conference? Do you think there are some teams that are more likely to be profitable than others?

I think I know how "good" each team is in each of the major conferences. That's why I'm backing off some of the more exotic plays that I had been making previously.

What about UNC? Have you noticed how they fare with their runs in the tournament?

UNC is UNC. Everyone knows that they are one of the best teams in the country. The point I was making about WVU was that the difference between their public perception and their actual skill is one of the largest in the country, which is somewhat surprising given their recent tournament success.

Maggie said...

That is what I meant - who are the sleeper teams that others just write off? I think the perception of WVU is so low because of the whole coaching change and because they did lose a lot of their fantastic guys.... but they had some deeper bench that stepped up that not too many people realize.

However- how do you resist Huggie?

am19psu said...

Frankly, I'm not here to handicap teams. How and why West Virginia is underrated is of little concern to me. I didn't even play the sport in high school, so I don't think I could accurately explain it if I wanted to.* The fact that they are underrated provides an increase in EV for the bets I place (at least, I think so, else I wouldn't be placing them).

I agree, though, Huggy Bear is quite the charming individual (I spent 15 minutes looking for a link of his 2005 DUI arrest, dammit).

*- I feel I do have this ability in football, which is why you occasionally see handicapping type entries here.

am19psu said...

That is what I meant - who are the sleeper teams that others just write off?

I just realized I ignored this. The only other team that even comes close is K-State. I've played them six times and am 3-3 in their games.

I think part of the reason why these teams are so underrated is because WVU is 336th in Consistancy (by Pomeroy) and K-State is 335th.

jwsherjr said...

I think the perception of WVU is so low because they are one of the least consistent teams in the country according to KenPom. Their awful losses have been a lot more high profile then their good games. The lack of consistency doesn't change the fact that on average they are a pretty good team.