Review of Week 1

Before we get started:

Green Bay -2.5 -106 2x

Another absolutely terrible weekend on the college side. I should really know better than playing such a large card this early in the season. Not like I won't do it next year and bitch when I lose another 10 units. At least the books learned their lesson and didn't set a bunch of trap lines again for this coming week. Oh wait... Anyway.

San Jose State +27 @ Nebraska 2x

This game was a helluva lot closer than it should have been. Pelini wanted to run it up at the end.

Temple +6 vs. Connecticut 3x

What a shitshow. I thought I was screwed when the game went to overtime. Fortunately, Temple made their FG.

East Carolina +7 vs. West Virginia 2x

West Virginia didn't bend me over. I am shocked.

Cincinnati +22.5 @ Oklahoma 3x
Central Michigan +24 @ Georgia 2x

I had both of these circled as big plays early in the week. Late action made me reduce the size of the bet. Obviously, I should have just passed as these were never in question.

New Mexico ML @ Texas A&M 1x

This was absolutely the correct play. I have no regrets.

Duke +7 vs. Northwestern 1x

I didn't see a down of this game. At least I won. Woo?

Nevada +10 vs. Texas Tech 3x
Houston +15 @ Oklahoma State 4x
Louisiana Tech +22 @ Kansas 5x

These are grouped together because they were absolutely the right play. Nevada gave the game away, Houston was in it until the end, and Taylor Bennett, current LaTech and former GaTech QB, remains a flaming asshole. These are the types of plays that will make squares go bankrupt in Week 6.

UTEP +26 @ Texas 2x

This was probably forced. There wasn't a ton of Texas action.

UL Monroe +14.5 @ Arkansas

Arkansas is terrible this year. Too bad the secret is out now.

Baltimore +1.5 vs. Cincinnati 1x

The Ravens are vastly underrated. They are going to give the Stillers a run for their money in the AFC North.

Miami +3 vs. New York 1x
Tampa Bay +3 @ New Orleans 1x

These were such a teases. Fortunately, I remembered Chad Pennington still has a noodle arm and Jeff Garcia is still gay before I got my hopes up.

Houston +6.5 @ Pittsburgh 1x
St Louis +8.5 @ Philadelphia 1x
Cleveland +6 vs. Dallas 2x

These were all over before they stepped on the field. It's part of playing Week 1.

Atlanta +3 vs. Detroit 3x

Thank you, Michael Turner, for salvaging a shitty afternoon.

Chicago +10 @ Indianapolis 2x

Just because Neckbeard is the quarterback, it doesn't mean Chicago doesn't have a good defense. Also, Neckbeard looked serviceable against the banged up Colt secondary. It should be interesting to see how the public values the Bears from here on out.

Leans will be up tomorrow and it looks like there are going to be a lot of them, again.

Saturday 9/6

Update: Today sucked again. I'll wait to see what the other people on RMMB came up with, but I would have to imagine they, along with Vegas, took it on the chin. I am definitely going to be scaling back the NFL plays tomorrow, which will probably go undefeated because I am playing tentative now.

I am unhappy with some of the late action I am seeing this morning. It's probably still going to be an above average card, but it won't be the spectacular one I was envisioning as late as last night. As I mentioned yesterday, the picks today will come in shifts. I'll just be updating this post throughout the day.

Earlies

Temple +6.5 -107 3x
Dr. Bob is my guess as to why this looks a bit public this morning.

San Jose State +27 -102 2x
I really didn't see much action on this game either way today, but everyone was backing Nebraska earlier in the week.

Tweeners

Cincinnati +22.5 -103 3x
Didn't you see the way OU dominated the Mocs last week? How can I be on the Bearcats?

Central Michigan +24 -103 2x
This was nearly a non-play. This was one of the games that I talked about on Tuesday as possibly being a 5xer. A lot of late action is going on the Chips, but I am sticking with my original feeling on the line.

East Carolina +7 -105 2x
The Pirates still aren't getting any respect, even after upsetting VoTech last week. WVU scares me, because I've faded them so much over the last 2 years only to get my ass burnt. Hopefully, Bill Stewart isn't Rich Rodriguez.

New Mexico ML +110 1x
Almost no action on the boards for this game, but this is based on principle. WAC teams should be getting a lot more than 2.5 against a traditional Big XII power.

Nightcaps

Duke +6 -107 1x
This was another one of those games that I had labeled higher before today. Too much Duke action to make it very large.

Louisiana-Monroe +14 -109 1x
See remarks about New Mexico and substitute in Sun Belt and SEC.

Louisiana Tech +22 -105 5x
Something about these shitty Louisiana schools has me excited tonight. Also, everyone on the boards is on Kansas, which is shouldn't be surprising considering how well they played last year. I guess everyone forgot that they lost their two best players to the NFL Draft.

Houston +15 -105 4x
"Dood! Did you see how much Homo State ran it up on Wazzu last week! They are a lock this week, bro!!!1!11!!!"

Nevada +10.5 -105 3x
I thought Texas Tech was supposed to be a potential Top 10 team this year? Then why are they only laying 10.5 to a WAC school?

UTEP +26 -102 2x
Texas is another of those schools that is high on tradition but low (for them) on talent.

That's it for tonight. I'll be back tomorrow around noon with the NFL plays. Good luck.

Leans, Part 2 - Week 1

I see two 5x plays tomorrow and more than a few bets greater than 2x. Should be interesting. I can't wait to cripple my bankroll in the second week of betting. On the NFL side, not much has changed. I can't believe Vegas is willing to take this many chances this early in the season, but I'm going to take the chances with them.

Also, tomorrow, I'll be posting the picks in waves. You almost have to with a card as big as I'm expecting tomorrow. Expect the first shot around 11:30a, then the next round at 3p, and the last few around 6p before I head into the city for a bachelor party.

Strong Leans

12p Temple +7 vs. Connecticut
1230p San Jose State +26.5 @ Nebraska
330p Cincinnati +21.5 @ Oklahoma
7p Houston +16.5 @ Oklahoma State
7p Louisiana Tech +20.5 @ Kansas
9p Nevada +10 vs. Texas Tech

Baltimore +1 vs. Cincinnati
Atlanta +3 vs. Detroit
Cleveland +6.5 vs. Dallas
Green Bay -1 vs. Minnesota

Moderate Leans

12p Marshall +21 @ Wisconsin
330p Central Michigan +23 @ Georgia
430p East Carolina +7.5 vs. West Virginia (I'm surprised WVU is public)
5p New Mexico +2.5 vs. Texas A&M
630p Washington State +13.5 vs. California
7p Louisiana-Monroe +12.5 @ Arkansas
7p Duke +6.5 vs. Northwestern
10p Toledo +22 @ Arizona
1015p UTEP +23 vs. Texas

Miami +3 vs. New York Jets (Simmons probably ruined this for me)
Houston +6.5 @ Pittsburgh
Tennessee +3 vs. Jacksonville (The shooting probably ruined this for me)
St. Louis +7 @ Philadelphia

I came up with these independent of MoneyLine, but the fact that our lean lists are so similar is either encouraging or discouraging depending on how you look at it. Fire off questions in the comments. Good luck.

Trisomy 21 - Week 1

Vegas has put up a ridiculously square card on both the college and pro sides. Let's see what the geniuses at Covers think about them.

I love guys that don't watch games but know how to adjust a team's defense anyway:

I am with you on the South Carolina lean against Vandy. I live in Nashville and I read that Vandy's QB (Nickson) rushed for almost 80% of their rushing yards against Miami (OH) last week. S.C. has got to shadow him with a linebacker and let the front 5 work the box and let the speed of the secondary take care of the rest.

Blackshirt clearly knows his trends:

PLAY AGAINST any college favorite in Game Two of the season who won 7 or more games last year if they lost Game One SU as a favorite.

That’s because teams in this role are 23-42 ATS since 1980, including 7-23 ATS when facing an opponent that is also off a loss. Better yet, by poking around and dressing them up as double-digit favorites in these ‘shakedown’ games, they slip to 3-16 ATS.

Last year one team met our criteria when Florida State laid 32 points at home against UAB just five days after stubbing their toe at Clemson as 3.5 road chalk in their lid lifter. The Seminoles went through the motions in a 34-24 win over the Blazers, not enough to overcome the huge impost.

MIAMI (OHIO) FITS THIS SITUATION PLAYING AGAINST THE WOLVERINES----FYI

The extra moneybags let you know this is good:

Pats-16.5

i'll agree with most that this will not be the same team as last year, but I think their offense will be just as dominant, and their Defense is well coached enough and disciplined to keep the lowly Cheifs in check....Plus being the first game of the year, and being at home coming off the biggest dissapointment of a game in Boston history....add in the fact they are playing one of the top 5 projected worst teams in the NFL, I think the worse case of a point spread loss for the Pats in this one is a meaningless backdoor with a minute left...which we have all been through....but I really don't think so in this one, the Pats will be up by at least 14-17 by halftime and will pound them hard from bell to bell in their first game after an 0-4 pre-season.

We all remember the Pats first 8 games last season, they beat the daylights out of everyone, then vegas started adjusting the lines to ridicolous numbers, hense the Pats ended up with a losing ATS mark by seasons end....pound the Pats here IMO they win very comfortably in the window of a 38-13 type of final.

GLTA

If it's on Wikipedia, it must be true:

After doing some research, I found an interesting angle to the NFL

Kickoff Game on Thursday:

Since 2004, the NFL implemented a Thursday Night Game in which the Super Bowl Champion from the previous year play the first game at home. The HOME TEAM has not only won but covered in this special edition slugfest, except for year one. I've listed the Super Bowl Champs with the lines and scores for the first game. Currently, the line is 3 1/2, so I will buy it down to three and not get burnt by the hook. Good luck to all and enjoy the game.

2003-2004 Super Bowl XXXVIII NE 32 Carolina 29

2004 - NE (-3) 27 Indy 24

2004-2005 Super Bowl XXXIX NE 24 Philly 21

2005 - NE (-7 1/2) 30 Oakland 20

2005-2006 Super Bowl XXXX Pittsburgh 21 Seattle 10

2006 - Pittsburgh (-1) 28 Miami 17

2006-2007 Super Bowl XXXXI Indy 29 Chicago 17

2007 - Indy (-5 1/2) 41 NO 10

2007- 2008 Super Bowl XXXXII NY Giants 17 NE 14

2008 - NY Giants (-3 1/2)????

Further information can be found by looking on Wikipedia,

under National Football League Kickoff Game.

And finally, it wouldn't be an edition of Trisomy 21 without quoting possibly the dumbest bettor I've ever seen, DoubleUp4Life. I chose this particular post, but you should read the whole thread. I would bet that you could turn a profit just fading this joker:

Yeah ... That ESPN 6:15 to 7:30 PM EST.

Slot always scares me ... the Dog does very well there..

That's it for this week. No posting tomorrow since I have a fantasy draft to attend in the evening. I'll be back Friday with the updated leans. Obviously, no play on the college or pro game tomorrow night. Good luck.

Leans - Week 1

I don't know who the hell Vegas is trying to kid with these lines. It would not surprise me to roll my bankroll over just this weekend. I see one college play that will definitely be 5x and at least 3 others have the opportunity to go that high. On top of that, there are eight games currently on my lean list for the NFL, which is about twice as many as usual. Hopefully, this blog doesn't shut down after only a month of posting.

Strong Leans

Central Michigan +23 @ Georgia
Cincinnati +21 @ Oklahoma
Duke +6.5 vs. Northwestern
Nevada +10 vs. Texas Tech
Temple +7 vs. Connecticut
Mississippi +7.5 @ Wake Forest
NOTE: Oregon State would be here, but no way I am betting against PSU.

Baltimore +1 vs. Cincinnati
Atlanta +3 vs. Detroit
Cleveland +5.5 vs. Dallas
Green Bay -3 vs. Minnesota

Moderate Leans

Louisiana-Monroe +12.5 @ Arkansas
Marshall +21 @ Wisconsin
Houston +16 @ Oklahoma State
Louisiana Tech +20.5 @ Kansas
Washington State +13.5 vs. California
New Mexico +2.5 vs. Texas A&M
Toledo +22 @ Arizona

Miami +3 vs. New York Jets
Houston +6.5 @ Pittsburgh
Tennessee +3 vs. Jacksonville
St. Louis +7 @ Philadelphia

Weak Leans

Eastern Michigan +21 @ Michigan State
Florida International +27 @ Iowa
Tulane +30 @ Alabama
Southern Mississippi +17.5 @ Auburn
Miami University +14.5 @ Michigan
Minnesota +6 @ Bowling Green
North Texas +21.5 vs. Tulsa