Trisomy 21 - Week 1

Vegas has put up a ridiculously square card on both the college and pro sides. Let's see what the geniuses at Covers think about them.

I love guys that don't watch games but know how to adjust a team's defense anyway:

I am with you on the South Carolina lean against Vandy. I live in Nashville and I read that Vandy's QB (Nickson) rushed for almost 80% of their rushing yards against Miami (OH) last week. S.C. has got to shadow him with a linebacker and let the front 5 work the box and let the speed of the secondary take care of the rest.

Blackshirt clearly knows his trends:

PLAY AGAINST any college favorite in Game Two of the season who won 7 or more games last year if they lost Game One SU as a favorite.

That’s because teams in this role are 23-42 ATS since 1980, including 7-23 ATS when facing an opponent that is also off a loss. Better yet, by poking around and dressing them up as double-digit favorites in these ‘shakedown’ games, they slip to 3-16 ATS.

Last year one team met our criteria when Florida State laid 32 points at home against UAB just five days after stubbing their toe at Clemson as 3.5 road chalk in their lid lifter. The Seminoles went through the motions in a 34-24 win over the Blazers, not enough to overcome the huge impost.

MIAMI (OHIO) FITS THIS SITUATION PLAYING AGAINST THE WOLVERINES----FYI

The extra moneybags let you know this is good:

Pats-16.5

i'll agree with most that this will not be the same team as last year, but I think their offense will be just as dominant, and their Defense is well coached enough and disciplined to keep the lowly Cheifs in check....Plus being the first game of the year, and being at home coming off the biggest dissapointment of a game in Boston history....add in the fact they are playing one of the top 5 projected worst teams in the NFL, I think the worse case of a point spread loss for the Pats in this one is a meaningless backdoor with a minute left...which we have all been through....but I really don't think so in this one, the Pats will be up by at least 14-17 by halftime and will pound them hard from bell to bell in their first game after an 0-4 pre-season.

We all remember the Pats first 8 games last season, they beat the daylights out of everyone, then vegas started adjusting the lines to ridicolous numbers, hense the Pats ended up with a losing ATS mark by seasons end....pound the Pats here IMO they win very comfortably in the window of a 38-13 type of final.

GLTA

If it's on Wikipedia, it must be true:

After doing some research, I found an interesting angle to the NFL

Kickoff Game on Thursday:

Since 2004, the NFL implemented a Thursday Night Game in which the Super Bowl Champion from the previous year play the first game at home. The HOME TEAM has not only won but covered in this special edition slugfest, except for year one. I've listed the Super Bowl Champs with the lines and scores for the first game. Currently, the line is 3 1/2, so I will buy it down to three and not get burnt by the hook. Good luck to all and enjoy the game.

2003-2004 Super Bowl XXXVIII NE 32 Carolina 29

2004 - NE (-3) 27 Indy 24

2004-2005 Super Bowl XXXIX NE 24 Philly 21

2005 - NE (-7 1/2) 30 Oakland 20

2005-2006 Super Bowl XXXX Pittsburgh 21 Seattle 10

2006 - Pittsburgh (-1) 28 Miami 17

2006-2007 Super Bowl XXXXI Indy 29 Chicago 17

2007 - Indy (-5 1/2) 41 NO 10

2007- 2008 Super Bowl XXXXII NY Giants 17 NE 14

2008 - NY Giants (-3 1/2)????

Further information can be found by looking on Wikipedia,

under National Football League Kickoff Game.

And finally, it wouldn't be an edition of Trisomy 21 without quoting possibly the dumbest bettor I've ever seen, DoubleUp4Life. I chose this particular post, but you should read the whole thread. I would bet that you could turn a profit just fading this joker:

Yeah ... That ESPN 6:15 to 7:30 PM EST.

Slot always scares me ... the Dog does very well there..

That's it for this week. No posting tomorrow since I have a fantasy draft to attend in the evening. I'll be back Friday with the updated leans. Obviously, no play on the college or pro game tomorrow night. Good luck.