Review of Week 9

Cincinnati +2.5 vs. USF (2)

Boring game, but at least a little kid got to hit on Erin Andrews after getting run over.

Wisconsin +5.5 @ Michigan State (3)

If I was Barry Alvarez, I would have called down and fired Bret Bielema immediately with twelve seconds left in the game.

UConn +3.5 vs. West Virginia (2)

I have no idea what Randy Edsall said at halftime, but it must have been inspiring.

Baylor +21 vs. Missouri (3)

Missouri is not who we thought they were. The Big XII Championship Game is going to be a repeat of 2005.

Utah State +6 vs. Hawaii (2)

I'm not even sure how the Aggies ended up anti-public here. Hawaii is terrible.

Arkansas State +23.5 @ Alabama (4)

Fade #1 against Alabama: Fail. Fade #2 against Alabama with LSU: Pending.

Louisiana Tech +4.5 vs. Fresno State (2)

I guess the public has figured out that Fresno isn't very good.

Temple +7 @ Navy (5)

I am quite glad that NCAA rules don't let teams go for the extra point when it is pointless in overtime. By the way, Al, you are allowed to take a knee when running out the clock.

Clemson +3 @ Boston College (2)

Clemson looked like they were going to try to give the game away. I am fortunate to come away with a victory here.

Iowa State +30 @ Oklahoma State (2)

I forgot the Pokes were the one team in the Big XII that plays defense.

UL Monroe +10 vs. Troy (2)

Continually updating Yahoo Gamecast at 9pm on a Saturday night is not a way to make friends.

New Mexico +7 vs. Utah (2)

With TCU coming up, this was a classic let down spot for the Utes.

Tennessee +5.5 @ South Carolina (2)

Tenny has played the elite of the SEC so far. Now they are on the back end of their schedule. Is it possible they are a bit better than that 3-5 record suggests?

-Me, last Tuesday.

Um, no.

St. Louis +3 vs. Arizona (2)

I went to grab some lunch around 2:30p on Sunday. When I left, it was 7-0 Rams. By the time I got home, it was 17-7 Buzzsaw and they never looked back.

Seattle +6.5 vs. Philadelphia (3)

Seattle scored a 90 yard touchdown on their first play from scrimmage. They racked up 143 the rest of the way.

Oakland +2.5 vs. Atlanta (2)

Which is still better than the 77 yards Oakland put up the entire game. Also amusing: Oakland TOP - 14:45.

Miami +3 @ Denver (2)

Miami should be in the ACC as schizophrenic as they are.

Saturday 11/1

There is really only 5 weeks of college football left. On one hand, that is depressing. On the other, at least it will keep me from wasting money.

Earlies (12p-3:29p)

Arkansas State +23.5 -105 (4)
Wisconsin +5.5 -103 (3)
Baylor +21 +100 (3)
LaTech +5 -108 (2)
UConn +3.5 -103 (2)
Utah State +6 -108 (2)

Passes: NW, CMU, Army

Afternooners (3:30p-6:59p)

Temple +7 +116 (5)
Iowa State +30 -104 (2)
Clemson +3 -102 (2)

Passes: Duke, Iowa, Idaho

Nightcaps (7p-11:59p)

UL Monroe +10 -106 (2)
New Mexico +7.5 -110 (2)
Tennessee +5.5 +107 (2)

Passes: Nebraska, Ariz St

Back tomorrow with the NFL. Good luck tonight.

Leans - Week 9, Part 2

Strong Leans

Temple +6.5
Ark St +22
Clem +4
Wisky +4.5
Tenny +6
Baylor +20

MIA +3
OAK +3
NYG -9.5

Moderate Leans

Duke +8
Ariz St +15
NW +7
Iowa +2.5
CMU +2
ULM +10
LaTech +5
Utah St +6.5
UCF +3.5 (Sun.)

SEA +7
STL +3

Thursday 10/31

This is another one of those weekday auto-plays. South Florida is slightly overrated due to being the preseason Big East favorite and Cincinnati seems to perennially fly under the radar.

Cincinnati +2.5 -103 (2)

I could have had this at 3 on Tuesday. Hopefully, it doesn't come down to a field goal at the end.

Leans - Week 9

There a lot of strange lines out there this week. These are my least favorite weeks as a gambler, when there are a lot of shitty road dogs that I am almost going to be forced to take. Just look at the strong leans list and try not to vomit.

Strong Leans

Cincy +3 vs. USF (Thu.)
This makes sense. USF is still riding preseason Big East favorite public momentum here.

Temple +7 @ Navy
Navy won by a blow out last week. Again, this makes some sense.

Ark St +22.5 @ Bama
This one is so ugly, I can't wait to play it. It opened at 24.

Clemson +4.5 @ BC
Back on the Dabo train? I really don't want to do this.

Wisky +4.5 @ MSU
Vegas obviously has no respect for Sparty and thinks Wisky is better than their loss to scUM would suggest.

NW +6.5 @ Minny
I called this without even knowing who Minny was playing this week.

Iowa +2.5 @ Illinois
I'm going to get Zooked here.

LaTech +4.5 vs. Fresno
Apparently, people haven't caught on that Fresno isn't nearly as good as they were advertised heading into the year.

MIA +3 @ DEN
Here we go again backing the Dolphins.

OAK +3 vs. ATL
Atlanta has appeared to be schizophrenic depending on whether they are home or away. Not as nauseous as initially thought.

NYG -9.5 vs. DAL
That line is waaaaaay too high for a team as well-regarded as the Cowboys.

Moderate Leans

Duke +7.5 @ Wake
Why is Wake public on Wagerline? These teams have identical records and Wake is reeling. This game doesn't pass the sniff test. I am guessing this ends up off my list on Saturday.

Az State +14.5 @ Oregon St
Ugly.

Tenny +6 @ S Carolina
Tenny has played the elite of the SEC so far. Now they are on the back end of their schedule. Is it possible they are a bit better than that 3-5 record suggests?

Baylor +20 vs. Mizzou
I'm getting tired of riding the Baylor train.

UL-Monroe +10 vs. Troy
Troy is always the most public Sun Belt team because they play high profile teams tough. But, it's not like their league record is outstanding or anything.

GB +5.5 @ TEN
The books are clearly not impressed by the last undefeated team in the league.

SEA +7 vs. PHI
West coast team going to the Eastern Time Zone alert!!

MIN -4.5 vs. HOU
The Texans have been playing well recently against shitty competition. I guess the public noticed.

Weak Leans

Nebraska +22 @ OU
Iowa St +30.5 @ Okie St
I'm intrigued by these two games because defense is hard to come by in the Big 12. Could the Huskers or Clones score enough to cover? For that reason, they seem a little bait-ish to me.

CMU +2.5 @ Indy
Indy coming off a big win against NW playing an underachieving Chip squad.

Idaho +16.5 vs. SJSU
Falls under teams I don't know much about (even after watching SJSU get whacked by Boise Friday night).

UConn +4 vs. WVU
I have a tough time believing WVU is going to be that public in this game.

Utah St +7 vs. Hawaii
Again, is Hawaii really going to be that public in this spot?

STL +3 vs. ARZ
Purely based on Wagerline numbers. I don't like it.

CIN +9 vs. JAX
Did you see what Houston did to the Bengals? Obviously, Jax will cover by 2 touchdowns.

Tuesday 10/28

Passing the Thundering Herd. I can't tell if I would play this on a Saturday or not. Probably not, because I know nothing of either team and I've been trying to avoid those games on Saturdays.

This strategy was profitable last football season, but it seems like these weekday contrarian plays have been hitting at a higher frequency this year. Unfortunately, I don't have the data to prove it and given my record, I don't feel like jeopardizing more units on teams I know nothing about. Good luck if you take Marshall.