Leans - Week 9

There a lot of strange lines out there this week. These are my least favorite weeks as a gambler, when there are a lot of shitty road dogs that I am almost going to be forced to take. Just look at the strong leans list and try not to vomit.

Strong Leans

Cincy +3 vs. USF (Thu.)
This makes sense. USF is still riding preseason Big East favorite public momentum here.

Temple +7 @ Navy
Navy won by a blow out last week. Again, this makes some sense.

Ark St +22.5 @ Bama
This one is so ugly, I can't wait to play it. It opened at 24.

Clemson +4.5 @ BC
Back on the Dabo train? I really don't want to do this.

Wisky +4.5 @ MSU
Vegas obviously has no respect for Sparty and thinks Wisky is better than their loss to scUM would suggest.

NW +6.5 @ Minny
I called this without even knowing who Minny was playing this week.

Iowa +2.5 @ Illinois
I'm going to get Zooked here.

LaTech +4.5 vs. Fresno
Apparently, people haven't caught on that Fresno isn't nearly as good as they were advertised heading into the year.

MIA +3 @ DEN
Here we go again backing the Dolphins.

OAK +3 vs. ATL
Atlanta has appeared to be schizophrenic depending on whether they are home or away. Not as nauseous as initially thought.

NYG -9.5 vs. DAL
That line is waaaaaay too high for a team as well-regarded as the Cowboys.

Moderate Leans

Duke +7.5 @ Wake
Why is Wake public on Wagerline? These teams have identical records and Wake is reeling. This game doesn't pass the sniff test. I am guessing this ends up off my list on Saturday.

Az State +14.5 @ Oregon St
Ugly.

Tenny +6 @ S Carolina
Tenny has played the elite of the SEC so far. Now they are on the back end of their schedule. Is it possible they are a bit better than that 3-5 record suggests?

Baylor +20 vs. Mizzou
I'm getting tired of riding the Baylor train.

UL-Monroe +10 vs. Troy
Troy is always the most public Sun Belt team because they play high profile teams tough. But, it's not like their league record is outstanding or anything.

GB +5.5 @ TEN
The books are clearly not impressed by the last undefeated team in the league.

SEA +7 vs. PHI
West coast team going to the Eastern Time Zone alert!!

MIN -4.5 vs. HOU
The Texans have been playing well recently against shitty competition. I guess the public noticed.

Weak Leans

Nebraska +22 @ OU
Iowa St +30.5 @ Okie St
I'm intrigued by these two games because defense is hard to come by in the Big 12. Could the Huskers or Clones score enough to cover? For that reason, they seem a little bait-ish to me.

CMU +2.5 @ Indy
Indy coming off a big win against NW playing an underachieving Chip squad.

Idaho +16.5 vs. SJSU
Falls under teams I don't know much about (even after watching SJSU get whacked by Boise Friday night).

UConn +4 vs. WVU
I have a tough time believing WVU is going to be that public in this game.

Utah St +7 vs. Hawaii
Again, is Hawaii really going to be that public in this spot?

STL +3 vs. ARZ
Purely based on Wagerline numbers. I don't like it.

CIN +9 vs. JAX
Did you see what Houston did to the Bengals? Obviously, Jax will cover by 2 touchdowns.