Record Update - 14 June 2009

As I suspected, it didn't take long for the losing ways to return. On Wednesday (I think), I was 2-1 and only 0.3x away from being positive for the year. I promptly went 2-8 the rest of the week and the result is this:



Nobody was particularly at fault. Cleveland pushed farther into the black, but was balanced by continued losing with the Padres. Otherwise, not a whole lot of changes this week. That happens when you only play thirteen games.

Sunday 6/14

I woke up too early this morning.

Plays
335p San Diego +179 2x
405p Oakland +133 2x
805p Cleveland -104 2x

Streak for the Cash
10a Iraq/S. Africa u2.5 goals
305p Colorado vs. Seattle
8p Orlando vs. Los Angeles
Current Streak: 0

I guess Hammel in the afternoon? I don't know. The Streakmaster did a good job today.

Saturday 6/13

I didn't bet much on hockey this year, but I have to imagine the Pens winning last night was good for the maple syrup drinking part of Contrarianville.

Plays
410p Cleveland +101 2x
605p Washington +149 2x
905p San Diego +196 2x

Yes, I'm dipping my toe back into the Natinals' pool. I'm still planning on picking my spots a lot more carefully with that team than I had been before my little falling out with them.

Streak for the Cash
2p CS-Fullerton vs. Arkansas
8p San Antonio vs. New York
Current Streak: 1

I'll probably be on Franklin at 5p followed by the Silver Stars (?!) at 8p.

Friday 6/12

Professional and personal reasons have left me drained. It's not been necessarily bad, just tiring and hectic. Case in point: just finished an almost two hour nap. What is this? College?

Plays
705p Pittsburgh +126 2x
705p Cleveland -113 2x

I almost played Florida, but it's not like the books are begging you to take them. Combine that with the line movement, and it turned into a pass.

Leans
After dinner...

Streak for the Cash
705p Yankees vs. Mets
Current Streak: 2

Angels later, if the Subway Series is over in time.

Thursday 6/11 - AM

This card blows.

Plays
205p CHC/HOU o9.5 +101 2x
340p SF/ARZ o9.5 +115 2x

Leans
705p CLE (Sowers) +122 vs. KC (Greinke)

Not that I want to be in the fading Greinke business, but it seems like every fifth day he comes up here, and I always end up passing him.

Streak for the Cash
130p Livorno
7p Angels
Current Streak: 0

I want to wait to see what The Saw says about the golf props. If I don't hear anything, all I'll play this afternoon is Livorno (win only).

Wednesday 6/10

Well, that was neat. Thanks, Comcast for only leaving me 36 hours without internet. It's not like I need it for anything.

Plays
705p Baltimore +103 2x
805p Colorado +128 2x

Streak for the Cash
705p Philadelphia vs. New York
Current Streak: 3

Also, thanks ESPN for not grading my Orlando wager until this afternoon. I didn't want to play Sri Lanka anyway.

Monday 6/8 - PM

I'm passing everything tonight. Biggest pass was Sonnastine.

Streak for the Cash
730p Los Angeles vs. Detroit
Current Streak: 0

Jesus Christ, my life has sunk to a new low. I'm only playing the WNBA because that will allow me to get two games in tonight. If you are at a high streak, hook 'em. Fathers for me late.

Where the Value Lies - Week 10

The Nationals, after going 2-5 this week, continue to be the squad that cannot turn their expected runs into wins. No surprise there. What was surprising to me was that the Rays, after going 4-1 this week, still remain underrated (unlucky?), though that is due mostly to their performance in one run games.

As always, these are the third order record deviations through Saturday.

Overrated
1. Brewers +4.4
2. Giants +4.0
3. Dodgers +3.9
4. Rangers +3.9
5. Phillies +3.1

Underrated
1. Nationals -8.8
2. Indians -5.5
3. Rays -4.8
4. Rockies -3.7
5. Twins -1.7
5. Diamondbacks -1.7

I realize I just got done betting on Texas over the weekend, but they and the Dodgers strike me as the most obvious fade opportunities from the overrated list.

I suspect that the Rays will end up being played more regularly. Obviously, being in the World Series last year kept their play rate down early in the season, but I imagine fourth place and a game over .500 will make them playable, especially against the top three in the AL East.

That opportunity will present itself today, when the Rays take on the Yankees in the Bronx in the series finale. Elsewhere, the Rockies/Brewers, Dbacks/Giants, and Padres/Dodgers series look to have decent potential early in the week. For the weekend matchups, it'll be interleague play, so I imagine there might be some value in the NL as a whole. Specifically, Twins/Cubs, Tribe/Cards, Rockies/M's, and A's/Giants might be good places to start (of course, I picked two AL teams).

Monday 6/8 - AM

I guess I should have looked at the schedule yesterday. After the last few weeks of only night games on Mondays, I wasn't expecting to have to make any decisions this morning.

Plays
215p Colorado +115 2x

Eventually, the Rockies are going to start to suck again. I'm looking forward to giving back all of last week's profits with them.

Leans
705p TB (Sonnastine) +148 @ NYY (Pettitte)
710p PIT (Duke) +132 @ ATL (Kawakami)
1005p ARZ (Garland) +160 @ SD (Peavy)

It looks like our run with Outman might be over. It was fun while it lasted.

Streak for the Cash
1230p Australia vs. Sri Lanka
Current Streak: 0

Stupid Florida. I'm not entirely sure what happened other than Southern Miss scored three in the bottom of the eighth. And they didn't even have the decency to be done by 10p. In any case, Australia is a -170/+140 favorite today in the cricket match.