Where the Value Lies - Week 10

The Nationals, after going 2-5 this week, continue to be the squad that cannot turn their expected runs into wins. No surprise there. What was surprising to me was that the Rays, after going 4-1 this week, still remain underrated (unlucky?), though that is due mostly to their performance in one run games.

As always, these are the third order record deviations through Saturday.

Overrated
1. Brewers +4.4
2. Giants +4.0
3. Dodgers +3.9
4. Rangers +3.9
5. Phillies +3.1

Underrated
1. Nationals -8.8
2. Indians -5.5
3. Rays -4.8
4. Rockies -3.7
5. Twins -1.7
5. Diamondbacks -1.7

I realize I just got done betting on Texas over the weekend, but they and the Dodgers strike me as the most obvious fade opportunities from the overrated list.

I suspect that the Rays will end up being played more regularly. Obviously, being in the World Series last year kept their play rate down early in the season, but I imagine fourth place and a game over .500 will make them playable, especially against the top three in the AL East.

That opportunity will present itself today, when the Rays take on the Yankees in the Bronx in the series finale. Elsewhere, the Rockies/Brewers, Dbacks/Giants, and Padres/Dodgers series look to have decent potential early in the week. For the weekend matchups, it'll be interleague play, so I imagine there might be some value in the NL as a whole. Specifically, Twins/Cubs, Tribe/Cards, Rockies/M's, and A's/Giants might be good places to start (of course, I picked two AL teams).