Review of Week 6

I am quite obviously a poor estimator of the strongest games.

Virginia +6 vs. East Carolina - 2x

Is Virginia getting its act together or were East Carolina's first two wins complete flukes? I'll go with the latter.

Mississippi State +1 vs. Vanderbilt - 3x

This was quite obviously a let down game for Vandy. I really should have bet this one for more.

Texas A&M vs. Kansas State - 2x

Kansas State still has an awful defense. It's just that aTm is teh awfulest.

Minnesota +11.5 @ Illinois - 2x

Guess which BigTen team other than the Buckeyes is 6-1? I'm disappointed the Gophers are off this week, because this would be a perfect time to fade them.

Tennessee +12.5 @ Georgia - 2x

Miraculously saved by a hook. Georgia is barely a Top 10 team at this point.

North Carolina -7.5 vs. Notre Dame - 2x

I wonder if this had been different if Tate doesn't get hurt on the first return. Either way, at least I don't have to hear about how Notre Dame is unranked this week.

Southern Mississippi +10 vs. Boise State - 5x

Total Yards - Broncos 350 Golden Eagles 278
Turnovers - Broncos 2 Golden Eagles 2
Fourth Down Conversions - Broncos 0-0 Golden Eagles 0-4
Amount am19psu wagered upon - Broncos 0x Golden Eagles 5x

Florida -6.5 vs. LSU - 2x

LSU was not the 3rd best team in the country before this game.

Western Kentucky +16.5 vs. Ball State - 2x

I'm sorry, Ball State, I just get scared sometimes. You know I love you, baby. Don't be mad.

New Mexico +23.5 vs. BYU - 2x

No idea what happened here. At least I covered.

Oakland +7 @ New Orleans - 5x

Seriously, I am 1 out of 5 on 5x bets for the season. Even if I suck and only hit 50% of 5x bets (which is not what my track record shows in previous years), there's still only an 18.75% chance of me sucking this bad. Fuck you small sample size, variance, and binomial distribution. I hope the three of you get anal herpes.

Atlanta +2.5 vs. Chicago - 2x

Watching the out of town scoreboard at the Meadowlands was liking waiting for my cancer biopsy results.

Houston -3 vs. Miami - 2x

Malignant.

Seattle -1 vs. Green Bay - 2x

Stage 5.

San Francisco +4.5 vs. Philadelphia - 3x

Metastasized. This game would ordinarily be in contention for bad beat of the year, but Christ, we've endured so many already.

San Diego -5.5 vs. New England - 2x

Nightcap that won after I went to bed. Didn't help my mood any.

The week will proceed mostly normally from here. TCU is looking pretty likely on Thursday.

Sunday 10/12

I'm feeling a bit uncomfortable putting these in so early, but I'm headed to the Meadowlands, so I don't have much choice.

Oakland +7 -109 5x (MB)
Atlanta +2.5 +108 2x (MB)
Houston -3 +107 2x (MB)
Seattle -2.5 +113 2x (MB)
San Francisco +4.5 -103 3x (MB)

Good luck today. I might get home in time to chase with the Chargers.

San Diego -5.5 -111 2x (MB)

I'm officially taking next week off. I'll write about it Wednesday.

Leans - Week 6, Part 2

This college card is complete garbage. Over at RMMB, people are having a difficult time even putting together seven selections for their picks contest. I am having a hard time seeing a reason to play more than my strong leans on the college side. Pros is an entirely different story.

Strong leans (in order)

So Miss +10.5
aTm +3
Miss St +2.5
W Ky +16.5
Minny +12.5

OAK +7.5
SEA -1
HOU -3
SF +4.5
ATL +3

Moderate Leans (in order)

Fake Miami +11
N Mex +23.5
UVa +5.5
NW +1
Akron +1
Tenny +12.5
Okla St +14.5

ARZ +5
TB -1
SD -6
CIN +6

I really don't care what the Wagerline numbers say, those Texan and Seahawk numbers are set up to attract Mia and GB action. I would guess that I'll play 7 games on Saturday and 7-8 games on Sunday. And then I'll squeal like a pig on Monday.

EDIT: Just looked at Moneyline's leans for the week. Since we are so far off, it should give you an idea how shitty the card is this week.

Leans - Week 6

College card looks less than mediocre this week. The pro side is going enlarge my sphincter again.

Strong Leans

Minny +12 @ Ill
Miss St +2.5 vs. Vandy
TAMU +3 vs. K-State
Okla St +14 @ Mizzou
So Miss +11.5 vs. Boise
W Ky +16.5 vs. Ball St

ATL +3 vs. CHI
HOU -3 vs. MIA
SF +4.5 vs. PHI
SEA -1 vs. GB

Moderate Leans

UVa +5.5 vs. ECU
NW +1 vs. Sparty
Tenny +12 @ UGa
Akron +1 vs. BGSU
N Mex +23.5 @ BYU

OAK +9 @ NO
CIN +6 @ NYJ
SD -6 vs. NE
ARZ +5 vs. DAL

Weak Leans

Ind +5.5 vs. Iowa
Texas +7 vs. OU
Wyo +24 vs. Utah
Colo St +15.5 vs. TCU
Fake Miami +11 @ No Ill
Stan +6.5 vs. Zona
Kent St +2.5 vs. Ohio
Rut +7.5 @ Cincy
Neb +21 @ TTU
UCF +17 @ Miami
Fla -6 vs. LSU
SMU +24.5 vs. Tulsa
Tulane +4.5 @ UTEP
SDSU +11 vs. AFA

TB -1 vs. CAR
STL +13.5 @ WAS
DEN -3.5 vs. JAX
CLE +9 vs. NYG