Review of Week 5

Let's get this out of the way:

Minnesota +3 +103 3x (MB)

Wow, a ridiculous game that I came out on the right side. Who knew?
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This season has been a complete abortion. The Houston/Indianapolis game yesterday was just a microcosm of what the whole football season has been like. I am getting awful close to taking a week or two off, but I know the second I do, it will turn around and I'll miss out on it. At least I didn't have my money in the stock market, which looks to be the only thing doing worse than me.

I am copying these stats from BigBookie on theRX forum. If you've been following along and understanding what I've been writing, it should tell you how absolutely square this season has been.

Road Favorites are 14-6 ATS
Faves of 1-3 points are 19-7 ATS
DD Dogs are 5-1 ATS
Every MNF game has gone Over

Let's take a look at how things could have turned out better:

Iowa State +11 vs. Kansas - 3x

Things started out well for the Cyclones, but like anything else, they made me sweat it out. I had visions of a Kansas pick 6 going through my head with about 4 minutes to go.

Stanford +6.5 @ Notre Dame - 2x

This game wasn't as close as the final looked. ND dominated the game. Stanfurd did just enough to make me waste 15 minutes watching the game closely.

Kent State +3.5 vs. Akron - 2x

I can't stand watching overtime games. Thankfully, neither team is that good on offense and Kent State's kicker can make field goals. [It should be noted that Purdue's worthless kicker cost most contrarians a solid win thanks to going 0-2 on chip shot figgies and 0-1 on PATs]

Iowa +6.5 @ Michigan State - 3x

Backdoor covering at its finest. Ferentz is a terrible coach and should be fired. Things were going pretty well for me so far. Then the afternoon games happened.

Kansas State +7 vs. Texas Tech - 4x, Kansas State ML +225 - 1x

Kansas State has a terrible, terrible defense. I still maintain Texas Tech is a fraud, and I think Vegas agrees with me. They'll have at least three losses before bowl season. The Raiders are clearly not a Top 7 team, regardless of this outcome.

Michigan -2.5 vs. Illinois - 2x

Zooked! I've said it before, I'll say it again, I hope this whole state gets SARS.

Virginia +13 vs. Maryland - 2x

If I told you the score of this game would be 31-0, did you think you would see green above? Me neither.

Nebraska +10 vs. Missouri - 4x

Missouri is really good. Like, might win the MNC good.

Northern Illinois +16.5 @ Tennessee - 2x

I'm not sure who Tennessee's replacement for David Cutcliffe is, but he might want to get the resume handy.

Houston +3 vs. Indianapolis - 5x

Slide, Sage, slide. I don't even want to talk about this game.

Miami +6 vs. San Diego - 4x

How long before every team in the NFL is running the WildHog? Miami is going to be overvalued now after knocking off last year's AFC Championship combatants. In fact, you might as well put me down for Houston -3 5x next week.

Detroit +3 vs. Chicago - 3x

See above about this state.

Tampa Bay +3.5 vs. Buffalo - 2x

Another backdoor cover. Not everything ends poorly. Just 75% of them.

San Francisco +3 vs. New England - 4x

It was the right play. I'm not remotely close to bitter about this.

And so there was the gambling week. Pretty awful stuff. The thing that pisses me off the most is that the 4x and 5x plays are just going horribly. I'm questioning if flat betting may be better, but I know the sides I am hammering are the correct plays. They just haven't worked out yet.

I think it's pretty safe to say that if next week goes as poorly as this one did, I'll be sitting out for a few weeks.

Saturday 9/4 - A Quick Look

Anger consumes me. This should have been a much better day... again. I hope everyone has been fading the hell out of my 4x plays.

Be back tomorrow with more losers.

Saturday 9/4

Plexing today, so wagers will be updated throughout the day. Let's get started with this abortion:

Early games

Iowa State +11 -106 3x (MB)
Stanford +6.5 -105 2x (MB)
Kent State +3.5 -110 2x (5D)
Iowa +6.5 -103 3x (MB)

Passes: Arkansas, Baylor

Afternoon Games

Kansas State +7 -110 4x (5D)
Kansas State ML +225 1x (to win 2.25x) (5D)
Michigan -2.5 +101 2x (MB)

Passes: None

This is what happens when you bet on a piece of shit university and a team that plays no defense. Profits!

Late Games

Virginia +13 -105 2x (MB)
Nebraska +10 +106 4x (MB)
No Illinois +16 +109 3x (MB)

Passes: Toledo, Colorado, Hawaii

The NFL card tomorrow looks like it will break my bankroll. I might be playing >70% of the games. Good luck.

Friday 9/3

Passing Marshall. Too many touts are on the Herd.

No opinion on BYU/Utah St, though RMMB consensus is on the Aggies. Not sure where this restraint has come from this week. I'll probably blow my wad on tomorrow's crappy card.

Leans - Week 5, Part 2

Looks like it is the Big XII's turn to have its way with my bankroll this week. I will be playing all the strong leans for at least a 2x. We'll see how things play out in the morning for the moderate leans.

Strong Leans

K-State
Iowa St
No Ill
Iowa

HOU
DET
TB
SF
MIN

Moderate Leans

Marshall (Fri.)
Virginia
Stanford
Michigan
Nebraska
Colorado
Arkansas
Toledo
Kent St
Baylor

BAL
MIA
ATL

Leans - Week 5

Passing Florida Atlantic tonight. I actually have a pretty strong lean here, but Moneyline and Jonny essentially talked me out of it. Back with leans in an hour or so.

And after checking the boards, thank you ML and Jonny for talking me out of it. Tout services are crawling with FAU plays.

For those of you not paying attention, this is the first week of football every night, even if tonight it is Sun Belt and tomorrow is WAC. Only 15 weeks of football left, so enjoy it. Onward...

Strong Leans

UVa +14
K-State +7.5
Iowa St +13.5
No Ill +15.5
Arky +24.5
Neb +11

HOU +3
DET +3.5
TB +3
SF +3

Moderate Leans

Stanfurd +7.5
scUM -2.5
Colo +14
Toledo +7.5
Kent St +3.5
Iower +8

BAL +3
ARZ -1
ATL +7

Weak Leans

Marshall +8.5 (Fri.)
NC State +8
Ind +7.5
UConn +6.5
Vandy +4.5
Baylor +27.5
Wisky +2.5
UL Monroe +2

MIA +6.5
DAL -17.5 (I want to lay that many points against my favorite team)
MIN +3

Be back tomorrow with something. Maybe.