Review of Week 3

I really don't want to get into each individual game from this past week. I am incredibly frustrated. In college football, my record isn't terrible, but it's the little plays that are coming through and the big ones are failing miserably. Hopefully, my fortune turns around this week. It is some consolation that all of the smart gamblers I know are also starting off crappy, so it's not just me, it's just been a square season so far.

I mentioned on Saturday that I would explain why Toledo was a 5x play. I jumped on it because the line stayed at 6.5 for far too long. A lot of times when that happens, the public is jumping all over the favorite and sharps are playing the dog because they think it will be a lot closer than 7 points. I needed OT to get there, but fortunately Toledo ended up covering.

Saturday 9/20

I'm still working out exactly how much I want to wager on these games, but I am at least pretty sure who I am going to play. I'll list it below in order of strongest to weakest leans.

Plays

Early Games

Wyoming +27.5 -102 2x
Arkansas +9 -104 3x
Central Michigan +10 -105 1x
NC State +7.5 -108 2x
UL Monroe +6 -104 3x

Late Games
Update 5:00p EDT: I should probably point out before the afternoon goes any further that these were always big plays in mind. This morning, I had 4x, 4x, 3x, and 2x for each game respectively. Just so no one thinks I'm chasing later when I end up with big plays at night following an abortion of an afternoon.

Update 5:55p EDT: Man this card sucks. I might lose my shirt tonight. I'll explain why Toledo is a 5x play in Monday's post.

Update 7:30p EDT: Smart people are on Auburn. I've enhanced my position accordingly.

Ole Miss -7 -110 4x
Auburn +2 -101 3x
Toledo +6.5 -105 5x
Arizona State +7 -113 2x

Adding: Auburn +2.5 -108 2x, for a total of 5x


Passes

FAU +7 @ Minny
Tennessee +6.5 vs. Florida
Army +10 vs. Akron
Pitt -1.5 vs. Iowa
Texas A&M +4.5 vs. Miami (FL)
Florida Int'l +28 vs. USF

Friday 9/19

Passing Baylor/UConn tonight. My opinion would be to play Baylor. Tomorrow's plays should be up fairly early. I'll try to get a post up with some updated leans tonight, but that depends on whether I have to attend to theFiancee after a poker tourney. Good luck.

Thursday 9/19

Small one for the night.

Colorado +3 -108 1x

Leans list has stayed the same except Ole Miss is now on the Strong Leans list. Good luck tonight.

Trisomy 21 - Week 3

It's almost game time. I am liking my side:

SEEMS EVERYONE IS ON KSTATE TONIGHT??? WE ALL LOVE THIS PICK SO MUCH I HAVENT SEEN THIS FORUM SO SURE OF A PICK IN AWHILE SO BEST OF LUCK TO US ALL GREAT DOING BUSINESS WITH EVERYONE

Try to follow along with the logic on this one. I count at least 5 different contradictions:

Kansas St -3.5 @ Louisville: Unless this is a VASTLY different Louisville team than the one I saw no-show to in-state rival UK the other day this game is going to be a bloodbath. KSU has a rebuilt team frankensteined from some JuCo transfers. They appear to be working out very nicely. KSU has pounded every inferior team they've met. Louisville is surely another inferior team.

WVA -3 @ COL: While WVA isn't a bad team they're no super team. They were pretty lame against ECU. While they might be better prepared for this one I seriously doubt the altitude will help them any. Wha't more, anyone who thinks the lost of the start RB-Slayton hasn't hurt them hasn't been paying attention. Devine is fast but he's a waif between the tackles. If he doesn't get outside he gets nothing done. Will COL be able to slow WVA? Maybe. They're not all that coordinated defensively but they've got an edge @ QB and the WVA defense should be GASSED and bordering on useless by the 2h.

Baylor @ UConn -14: "We won a game against a Pac-10 opponent!!! We are the champions..." Yeah, that's right, Waco wackos. Now let's try against a team that can run the ball and play defense. Good luck with that.

Ohio @ Northwestern: Ohio has put up valiant struggles in their new spread offense...no wins, just valiant spread covering struggles. NU has NOT. They've won a couple of games but their defensive prowess has been subpar to say the least. Despite the new Defensive Coordinator they've continued to BLOW. The question is whether they will be able to run the football and get the GASSED defense some rest here and there. I think the easy win against Cuse got the coaches heads stuck in their asses. It's not always going to be that easy. Ohio also plays the spread offense (as of this year) and they've been making plays. I think putting a gassed defense against a reasonably successful offense is a recipe for another scrape it out and hope to get lucky win by a single score. I'll be shocked if this game is much different from the Duke sloth fest.

FAU @ Minnesota -6.5: Gophers have greatly improved and should win this game. That said, all their games have been close (the BGSU game was close until the Falcons quit in the 4Q). FAU is again being touted as the cream of their sad little crop and they may be but there's no reason to think they'll win here. This is a bit of a grudge match for the Gophers and don't think they'll be letting off the gas. They've got some momentum and FAU is going to be battered after their dance with MSU last week. I got tired and sore just from watching that one. That said, U of M doesn't have nearly the O-line nor D-line that the Spartans have. FAU should put some points on the board against this highly suspect Gopher D. Enought to cover? There's a pretty fair chance of that.

Six teams parlays you can take straight to the bank, homey:

1FRESNO ST. 2GEORGIA 3LSU 4ARMY 5BUFFALO 6TULSA EASY MONEY WEEK 4 30-6 AGAINST THE SPREAD

I love it when Covers' posters say games are too easy:

BYU - 29 against Wyoming?????

Wyoming is TERRIBLE!!! they beat OHIO by 1 point, and squeeked by North Dakota State by 3pts.

NORTH DAKOTA STATE!!!!!

BYU pasted UCLA and they are playing in Provo. This should be covered by half time.

BYU -29 = $$$$$

Big 12

Miami -4 at Texas A&M

Miami is too quick and McGee may be out with a shoulder injury.

This seems too easy.

Miami -4

Guess who's back? Read the thread for the fades, but this was too awesome to pass up:

I am a Father , a Husband

I Man Up for my record.

I hope I can be as much of a degenerate while channeling my inner Mike Gundy. Good luck this week everyone.

Wednesday 9/17

I have some things to take care of tonight, so Trisomy 21 won't be up until later. For now:

Louisville +5 -110 3x

Good luck.

Leans - Week 3

The books are giving me the week off, I guess. I don't see nearly as many plays as the last two weeks. The important thing is to not force anything. Expect a big play or two, but total exposure to be much less.

Strong Leans

Louisville +3.5 vs. Kansas State (Wed.)
Arizona State +7 vs. Georgia
Toledo +7 vs. Fresno State
Arkansas +9.5 vs. Alabama

Kansas City +5 @ Atlanta
Green Bay +3 vs. Dallas

Moderate Leans

Colorado +3 vs. West Virginia (Thu.)
Auburn +3 vs. LSU
Troy +21 @ Ohio State
NC State +7.5 vs. ECU
Tennessee +6 vs. Florida

Houston +5 @ Tennessee
Pittsburgh +3 @ Philadelphia

Weak Leans

UCF +10.5 @ BC
Pitt -1.5 vs. Iowa
Texas A&M +4.5 vs. Miami (FL)
Central Michigan +10.5 @ Purdue
Florida Int +28 vs. USF
Wyoming +28 @ BYU

Detroit +4 @ San Fran