Sunday 2/22

What a garbage card. There is not a single play out there. My biggest pass was Iowa. Good luck if you play anything.

Saturday 2/21

I didn't want to post yesterday so that the ridiculously long theory post stayed at the top. Today's leans, without BracketBusters, are located hyah. You can add Davidson, SMC, ND St, and Crate to that list. In fact...

Early Games (12p-159p)
12p Miami (FL) -7 +106 3x
12p Davidson -5 +110 2x

Middays (2p-359p)
2p Cincinnati +5 +102 2x
2p Georgetown -3.5 -102 2x

Appetizers (4p-559p)
4p UTEP +9 +106 2x
Passes: Ore St, SMC

Dessert (6p-759p)
6p Texas Tech +1 +102 2x
6p Iowa State +3.5 -101 2x

Nightcaps (8p-12a)
8p Virginia Tech -3 +108 2x
8p Saint Louis +1 +106 2x
8p North Dakota State -2 +102 3x
9p Texas -1 +104 3x
Passes: Oregon, Auburn

I am trying to show some fiscal responsibility tonight. I really want to make Texas greater than a 3x play, but proper money management dictates I don't. If there were more green numbers than red over there to the right, I'd probably up it.

Good luck tonight.

Thursday 2/19

I don't recall a line moving as much as St. John's did today. It opened at 11 last night and by the time I got home from work, it was up to 14. I have absolutely no idea what that means in terms of value, so I'm just going to make it a big ol' pass.

7p Charlotte +6.5 -105 3x
9p Oregon +6 -105 2x
Passes: Johns, Indiana, Ore St

Oregon State was the last cut from the list. The SIA numbers just didn't make a lot of sense to me. I'd rather pass a game like that.

Good luck with your plays tonight.

Leans 2/19

I'm almost embarrassed by the lucky streak I've been on recently. It's going to come crashing down sooner or later. Probably tonight.

Leans
7p Mich -3.5 vs. Minny
7p Char +7.5 vs. X
7p Johns +11.5 vs. Duke
9p Indiana +9.5 vs. Wisky
9p Ore +6.5 vs. Cal
10p Ore St +4 vs. Stan

That's probably too many for this card. Charlotte is the only real must play.

Wednesday 2/18

I don't see a reason not to play all of the earlier games on my leans list this morning.

Early Games (7p-859p)
7p South Florida +5.5 +104 2x
7p West Virginia -9.5 +102 2x
8p Wisc-Milwaukee +5.5 +101 2x
8p Arkansas +4 -101 2x
8p Virginia -1 +112 2x

Late Games (9p-12a)
9p Idaho +6 +102 2x
Passes: NW, TTech

Thoughts:
-USF was the closest to getting cut. The public knows that G'Town isn't very good, but I still think most people looked at that line and went "who the hell is USF?"

-Yes, I read ML's piece today on getting 9 vs. 9.5 with the 'Eers. I have two points on that. One, while I agree that in general we are working within small margins, I am still not convinced that remains the case when there is large line movement, both anecdotally from the last few years of wagering and the empirical, quantitative evidence I found during NCAAF season. Two, -9.5 +102 is actually a better price than the -9 -110 he got.

-If the UW-Mil/Butler game weren't a Horizon League game, it would have been a three. I'm still trying to figure out exactly what the public thinks about these small conference, ranked teams and if the books care enough to offset the line.

-NW and TTech ended up not being particularly anti-public. Easy passes.

Good luck tonight.

Leans 2/18

This ought to be where my little five day run comes to an end.

Leans
7p USF +6 vs. G'town
7p WVU -8.5 vs. ND
8p UW-Mil +5 vs. Butler
8p Arky +8.5 vs. LSU
8p UVa -1.5 vs. VT
9p NW +1 vs. tOSU
9p Idaho +6.5 @ Boise
930p TTech +1 vs. Okie St

There are a few other ideas floating out there like Temple -25 or Georgia +3, but I can't see fading the 319th team in the country or playing a team coming off a highly publicized upset of Florida. UNC -20 might be interesting, too.

Tuesday 2/17

I'm watching CNBC in awe right now as Cramer et al. discuss the destruction of the capitalist financial system. I'm glad I have my money tied up in an offshore sportsbook. And I'm really only being half sarcastic.

7p Purdue -2.5 -107 2x
9p Vanderbilt +1.5 -102 2x

I'm not really excited about either of these plays. It feels like every contrarian is reluctantly putting them in.

Leans 2/17

Another lame card tonight:

7p Purdue -2.5 vs. Sparty
9p Vandy +1 vs. UK

These are both borderline plays right now. We'll see how I feel tonight.

Monday 2/16

The record is updated to the right. I can't believe I started 5-11 for the week and ended up 17-13-1. That has to be a record variance for a single week for me.

Pass: aTm

Texas hasn't been all that impressive recently and I think their star has probably lost some its luster in the eyes of the public. Good luck if you play anything tonight.

Leans 2/16

Just one possibly for tonight:

9p Texas A&M +2 vs. Texas

The UConn/Pitt game is set at a sharp 3. I'm looking forward to watching it.

I'll update the record when I get home tonight.