Record Update - 21 June 2009

After Ashy Tuesday, I recovered nicely for the rest of the week, showing a decent profit after going 12-8 the rest of the week. I'm still in the red for the year, though.



Baltimore and Washington (?!) were the biggest helpers this week, responsible for all of the total profit.

Sunday 6/21

There is potential for a frequently updated post tomorrow. It depends on how exactly my plans shake out with my old roommate, but it will involve horse racing if it occurs, so 98% of the people that read this blog probably won't care.

Plays
135p Atlanta +118 2x
135p Baltimore +161 2x
410p Arizona +157 2x

Another meh card today. Atlanta got steamed as I was putting these in, too.

Golf
Following the Saw on these. These are flat bet, just like baseball sides.
Ricky Barnes +315 2x
Lucas Glover +266 2x

Alternatively, you could at it like Barnes/Glover -106 2x. Whatever.

Streak for the Cash
2p Italy (win or draw) vs. Brazil
930p Los Angeles vs. Sacramento
Current Streak: 0

Not a lot of great options for the Streak card today, either.

Passing Everything

Today's card doesn't look particularly appealing and I'm going to be out all day. Good luck if you play anything.

Friday 6/19

Did I miss something somewhere?

Soren Kjeldsen: Steady Soren is one of several who share his name that never get enough recognition over here for there play. Kjeldsen is arguably the best of the group. Kjeldsen has played very well this season in Europe with a win in Andalucia and a top-3 finish at Wentworth. Kjeldsen also posted a top-10 at Doral. Kjeldsen is not the type of player who immediately sticks out as a contender at Bethpage, but I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see him contend.

Because this doesn't make any sense to me:



Plays
705p Baltimore +134 2x
705p Washington -104 2x
710p Atlanta +145 2x
810p Houston +142 2x

I know it's commonplace, but Washington's line is absurd.

Leans
105p CLE (Ohka) +152 @ CHC (Lilly)
410p TB (Shields) +113 @ NYM (Santana)
410p KC (Bannister) +157 vs. STL (Carpenter) - this is down the card, for whatever reason
705p BAL (Bergesen) +155 @ PHL (Happ)
710p FLA (Johnson) -104 vs. NYY (Burnett)

Started late...

Streak for the Cash
730p Arizona State vs. Texas Uh, whoops.
Current Streak: 0

Let's see, Texas already beat Rizo St, yet the Sun Devils are a -135/+125 favorite. Hopefully this game will end quickly and I can play Outman late.

Leans 6/19

Miraculously, after Black Tuesday, I'm somehow positive for the week. Of course, I'll lose 10x this weekend, so it won't matter.

Leans
705p BAL (Hill) +133 @ PHL (Bastardo)
710p FLA (West) +133 @ NYY (Pettitte)
710p ATL (Kawakami) +133 @ BOS (Dice-K)
810p HOU (Oswalt) +133 @ MIN (Slowey)

That's flipping weird.

Streak for the Cash
10a Sweden (win or draw) vs. Italy
220p Cleveland vs. Cubs
Current Streak: 0

I'm not sure which is better, this or Tiger o69.5, but the odds on the soccer game are about -165.

None of the other afternoon props look particularly good. If I am at W3, I'll probably pass everything.

Thursday 6/18 - PM

I don't often make mistakes as obvious as I did this morning. Both Colorado and Pittsburgh didn't really turn out to be all that contrarian.

Plays
705p Baltimore -117 3x
1010p Oakland +137 2x

Livan Hernandez is not a 5-1 pitcher.

Streak for the Cash
810p Arizona vs. Kansas City
Current Streak: 2

I'm such a pussy. I should have taken Baltimore.

Thursday 6/18 - AM

The College World Series has been the death of my winning percentage in Streak. I'm 3-6-1 in College Baseball, by far my worst sport with more than two games played.

Plays
105p Washington +282 2x
110p Pittsburgh +143 2x
310p Colorado +103 2x

Leans
705p BAL (Berken) -110 vs. NYM (Hernandez)
710p FLA (Nolasco) +202 @ BOS (Lester)
805p HOU (Backe) +152 @ TEX (Padilla)
815p DET (Porcello) -104 @ STL (Pineiro)
1010p OAK (Mazzaro) +134 @ LAD (Wolf)

Streak for the Cash
806a T. Woods over P. Harrington/A. Cabrera
2p Cubs vs. White Sox
Current Streak: 1

The golf prop is -180/+150 at 5Dimes. Hopefully, this is over by 2p and I can hop on the North Siders, but I haven't been lucky this week with getting my plays in from work.

Wednesday 6/17

Running late again. I couldn't differentiate between a lot of these at the back end, so I just ended up playing them all. When my bankroll is nil tomorrow, that will look like a good decision.

Plays
705p Baltimore -148 2x
705p Cleveland -129 2x
710p Florida +162 2x
805p Houston +134 2x
810p Arizona +155 2x
810p Pittsburgh +183 2x
840p Colorado -112 2x
1010p Oakland +151 2x

I can't wait to wake up and find 1-7 tomorrow.

Streak for the Cash
7p Virginia vs. Arkansas
Current Streak: 0

These baseball lines have been killing my streaks lately. I'm sure Vegas has been really excited about the outcomes as well.

Leans 6/17

And just like that, back down 17x on the season. What a joke.

Leans
705p WAS (Lannan) +190 vs. NYY (Wang)
705p BAL (Uehara) -151 vs. NYM (Redding)
705p CLE (Huff) -120 vs. MIL (Suppan)
710p FLA (Miller) +162 @ BOS (Penny)
805p HOU (Ortiz) +140 @ TEX (Harrison)
810p ARZ (Scherzer) +157 @ KC (Greinke)
810p PIT (Snell) +170 @ MIN (Liriano)
840p COL (Cook) -115 vs. TB (Price)
1010p OAK (Cahill) +131 @ LAD (Kuroda)

Streak for the Cash
1230p Uzbekistan (win or draw) vs. Bahrain
Current Streak: 0

It'll be close, but hopefully, I can get on the over in the New Zealand/South Africa game.

Tuesday 6/16

Today has been really busy.

Plays
705p Washington +345 2x
705p Baltimore -126 2x
840p Colorado -110 2x
1010p Oakland +139 2x

Biggest pass was Florida. I'm also somewhat surprised the Tribe didn't end up on the card.

Streak for the Cash
7p Arizona State vs. Texas
Current Streak: 0

Geez, I'm half tempted to bet on the Sun Devils. Passing everything late.

Leans 6/16

There seems to be a lot of borderline plays tonight. This card could end up with with six games or zero.

Leans
705p WAS (Martis) +310 @ NYY (Sabathia)
705p BAL (Guthrie) -116 vs. NYM (Pelfrey)
705p TOR (Romero) +185 @ PHL (Hamels)
705p CLE (Sowers) +127 vs. MIL (Gallerdo)
710p FLA (Volstad) +154 @ BOS (Wakefield)
810p PIT (Maholm) +128 @ MIN (Perkins)
1010p OAK (Braden) +140 @ LAD (Kershaw)

It's weird to have almost as many AL teams as NL teams on this list, but the O's and Tribe are definitely legit.

Streak for the Cash
11a A. Mauresmo vs. V. Zvonareva
2p Serbia (win or draw) vs. Italy
Current Streak: 2

There is at least a chance of getting three marginal plays in this afternoon. If the tennis match ends quickly, the under will be the play in the Belarus/Sweden kiddie soccer tilt (55% or so), followed by Serbia w/d (56% or so) in the afternoon. If the tennis match takes longer, it comes down to the unposted total in the baseball game and Serbia. Hopefully someone will alert me to the price on the total before 2p.

Leans 6/15

Only two games on the card today and neither one is particularly interesting.

Leans
705p CLE (Pavano) -117 vs. MIL (Bush)

The numbers aren't there at the moment, but that just seems like it should be an anti-public play.

Streak for the Cash
8a S. Darcis vs. M. Gicquel
11a F. Santaro vs. R. Kendrick
2p CS-Fullerton vs. Virginia
Current Streak: 0

I'm only playing the first tennis match because I'm at zero and it's there. I'll be on Santoro over Kendrick and Fullerton over Virginia later. If, for whatever reason, the 2nd tennis match doesn't finish until after 2, but before 2:30, Italy isn't a terrible option, but far worse than Fullerton.

Where the Value Lies - Week 11

Note: I'm running this tonight instead of tomorrow afternoon because of the Injuns' game. I'll put up the record update tomorrow afternoon.

It's one week closer to college football season and the Nationals continue to dramatically underperform their third order record, becoming the first team this season to reach double digits. Shocking.

As always, these come from the third order record deviations after Saturday June 13.

Underrated
1. Nationals -10.2
2. Rays -6.1
3. Indians -4.2
4. Diamondbacks -3.2
5. Mets -2.9

Overrated
1. Giants +5.9
2. Brewers +3.8
3. Rangers +3.8
4. Phillies +3.6
5. Dodgers +3.3

I'm almost definitely overthinking this, but I'm surprised that we haven't been on the Rays more often. I know they just got done with the Nats, but I wonder if we'll see some more of them as they head out to play the red hot Rockies.

Unfortunately, it doesn't look there will be much fading of the Giants this week. They play the Angels and Rangers in their interleague matchups. Other potential early week looks include Tribe/Brewers, A's/Dodgers, and Jays/Phils.