am19psu: Any thoughts on this week's lines, other than the amount of money we are going to lose on Stanford?
Sham: That game already has big play written all over it, line is definitely set to induce a play on the Trojan-slaying Ducks. It will be interesting to see how USC responds to being dominated for the first time in ages. Respect accrued from previous seasons seems to be gone as well seeing that USC is only -10.5 against ASU.
19: I'm not really all that surprised by the USC line. It's been obvious the last three weeks that this is not the same USC team of the last 7 years. Now the bookmakers have decided to adjust accordingly.
The short line that did surprise me was Houston. We touched on it last week a little bit, but the books (and apparently sharps) have zero respect for Houston versus the rest of C-USA, even with Kinne questionable after getting concussed against SMU.
S: Line was a surprise to me as well. Touching on the Houston/USM game for a bit. I feel bad for those who got down on USM +6.5 and don't have a local who jacks up his lines, in this case 7.5 (I'm trying to get everyone to hate me).
Getting to a non-BCS team that doesn't get their lines steamed every game, The Saw's favorite team, TCU. I've gone against them once this year when they played Clemson, but this week SDSU will get a look.
19: Count me on the TCU bandwagon, too. I mean, they're clearly not the best team in the country because of their talent deficit, but if you were a fan of say, I don't know, Penn State, would you want to face them in a BCS bowl?
In terms of this week's game, I'm not sure that game will have enough of a handle for me to play it, but it's obviously worth watching, especially considering the way TCU has destroyed the competition the last few weeks.
Let's get back to the BCS conferences. Earlier this season, the books put UF -10 @ LSU. We speculated on Saturday that Bama is 3-4 points worse than UF on a neutral field. You nailed the line, so has LSU gone up in your eyes, Bama/Florida dropped or a little of both?
S: I think the way LSU shut down a dynamic Pelican attack this past Saturday, limiting them to less than 3.8 ypp raises their profile in the eyes of many. Seriously though, I think LSU has shown a little improvement but people now have concerns over Bama, specifically their QB play. Roll Tide hasn't had a dominant victory since September against Arkansas. I think it's a little overblown and presents a decent look for Bama this week. As for Florida, I think their perception has dropped as well but they're still going to be favored over anyone on a neutral field.
Big game in my neck of the woods is OU -5.5 at Nebraska. Can I get your non-biased thoughts on this?
19: If Nebraska had a competent quarterback, they could be one of the best teams in the country. I watched maybe 10 plays in the game against Baylor Saturday, but one of them was an awful, telegraphed pick six from Lee. I hope Green starts for them on Saturday.
In terms of betting, I imagine if there is going to be a public side, it will be OU. Their losses were to BYU, Tha U, and UT, versus VT, TTech, and Iowa State for Nebraska. Plus, I have to think the perception of the Big 12 North is complete garbage. Is that what you were thinking?
S: *Green started last week for Lee, either way both are sub-standard
Exactly, add to the fact that it's the Saturday night game on ABC (along with USC/ASU) and I think the public sides with Oklahoma. Speaking of high-profile primetime games, it looks as though we'll be on the other side of coaching genius Chris Ault on Sunday night.
19: The Spartans are going to be one the most anti-public sides at Wagerline this week. Hopefully, the volume is low and we can pass it. Or, I can just donk off some late night units like I did on Arizona State two weeks ago.
Which QB are you looking forward to backing least on Saturday: Juice +6.5 or Paulus +21?
S: Ugh, don't make me choose. It's looking like my least favorite Duke guard turned Cuse QB will get the nod over Juice. Although in a perfect world both lines would get steamed and I wouldn't have to play either one.
There's not too much on the weekday docket except for La Tech, maybe a total will work its way in. I'm not even sure I could fade Temple even though they are facing a wretched Fake Miami squad.
19: How dare you, sir! Rules of Contrarianville implicitly state that fading Temple is strictly prohibited. Seriously, though, I think LaTech will end up being a play and I'll end up wasting a Friday night watching that garbage.
For the other "big" matchup of the weekend, I don't see much of an angle in the tOSU/PSU game. The under will probably be public, but I doubt we'll play a Saturday afternoon total.
Looking through the rest of the BCS lines, not a whole lot jumps out at me. Is the public aware Reesing got benched last week? Will Michigan be public after losing to Juice? Is anyone respecting Duke yet? Oregon State vs. Cal?
S: There's not much in terms of BCS Conference action. I've cooled off Wake against GT and Rizo vs Wazzu but those will be revisited later in the week. I like Clemson as a chalk look against an all offense no defense F$U squad. Any parting thoughts for the week?
19: That game seemed like a pass to me. The Dabos have been on a roll since losing to Maryland a few weeks back.
Parting thought: Stanford is a large play or a max play for you? I'm leaning large right now. If the game was on Thursday night or Saturday night, it would be a max.
S: Right now it stands as a large play, I don't see it going to a max.
19: At least our cards will somewhat small for another week. That is, until you get ambitious on Sunday morning again. Good luck this week.
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