I Am Confused

,
This game appeared to be the best look on the board, at least thinly sliced:

Arkansas -1.5 vs. Georgia

Wagerline: 37%/63%
SIA: 22%/78%
Carib: 35%/65%
Sportsbook: 59%/41%
5Dimes: 65%/35%

The second best lean, in my opinion, was this:

Fresno St +7 vs. Boise St

Wagerline: 31%/69%
SIA: 24%/76%
Carib: 26%/74%
Sportsbook: 9%/91%
5Dimes: 43%/57%

Is there something about 5Dimes' clientele I'm not understanding? Or am I misdiagnosing the games that should be public? The rest of the contrarian games don't seem that far off, at least once you grasp the normal spread of the percentages.

5 comments:

moneyline said...

1) Georgia has not been a super public team this year nor have they been good. Also, in my opinion that line isn't super ugly.

2) Fresno St is not San Jose St or Nevada. People are aware of them and in turn are probably not petrified to bet on them.

I'm not condemning either side; just trying to shed some light.

am19psu said...

I'm not condemning either side; just trying to shed some light.

Not a problem. I wouldn't have posted if I wasn't looking for constructive criticism.

There's probably a reason I liked those games the most, and it probably has to do with my lingering inner square.

am19psu said...

Fresno St is not San Jose St or Nevada

Interesting you chose Nevada there, since I would have figured Nevada > Fresno in the public's eye.

moneyline said...

"Interesting you chose Nevada there, since I would have figured Nevada > Fresno in the public's eye."

I guess that could be true at this point. It certainly wasn't last year; the meeting between those two is where the term "personal max" was coined.

Sham said...
This comment has been removed by the author.