2009 CFB Preview: South Florida

The early favorite for the Big East title has a dichotomous non-conference schedule. On one hand, they have FCS Wofford and Charleston Southern and one of the worst teams in FBS, Western Kentucky. On the other, they travel to Tallahassee and get the Hurricanes at home.



The win distributions clearly show that South Florida is more likely to have a better overall record and within conference record than WVU. I'm not really sure why Vegas has the 'Eers installed as the favorite.





With the total set at 8, though, there really isn't a whole lot of value in the over/under for USF. The 26.6% chance of a draw pretty well sucks all of the value out of the prop.

(Thanks to xlssports for the Monte Carlo simulator)