2009 CFB Preview: North Carolina

The Tar Heels were the hardest team to handicap so far. Sportsbook has them as 2.5 point favorites at home against FSU and Miami, while the Nugget has them as dogs by the same amount. In the opposite manner, Sportsbook favors NC State by 2 the last week of the regular season, the Nugget favors UNC by 2.5.

As you can see, I basically took the mean for those games. For the rest of the games, I used the power rankings I came up with last week to set the spreads. These probabilities are the ones I feel least confident about since I started posting the previews.

Ordinarily, I would think under 8.5 -240 would have a lot of value, since the numbers say that in the best case scenario, UNC wins eight or less games 86% of the time. However, with the increased variance of the lines for North Carolina, I think there are better spots to tie up your money for five months.