2009 CFB Preview: Florida State

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The ACC is the other conference with a logjam of teams at the top. Unlike the Big East, these teams are legitimately good. Any one of these teams would be second or third in any other conference in America. Florida State will show the pattern here: favored when home against the other good teams in conference, underdog on the road.



The good news for the Florida State is that they miss Virginia Tech and get Georgia Tech and Miami at home. The bad news is they have to go to the Swamp, which they lose 95% of the time.





With the win total set at 8, there is no value in Florida State. At -240 on the under, though, the books seem to agree with my numbers that the Noles are more likely to be spending New Years in Charlotte or Boise, rather than Miami.

(Thanks to xlssports for the Monte Carlo calculator)

2 comments:

Eric said...

I noticed you've got your best case/worst case lines for the Clemson game flipped. I don't know if that is just a typo in the table or something that affected your final record calculations...

am19psu said...

Yup, I messed it up. The vacation I took to work on all of this has been muddled with less than ideal working conditions.