Take these thoughts with a grain of salt, because I've never been through an entire baseball schedule. By the end of this week, we'll be just about halfway through baseball season. At some point, these third order record assessments will become less valuable. For example, the Nationals have been sitting right around -10 wins vs. their expected record for about 2.5 weeks. That means, recently, they've been playing at the level of their expected record (~43%). The market should react to their increased level of play.
I would assume that going forward, looking at something like monthly changes would be better at identifying teams that currently underrated in the market. Unfortunately, I didn't think about this until recently, so I haven't been saving the data. So, starting at the end of July, I'll start looking both at season-long third order differences and change in third order record over four weeks.
I don't know if it will illuminate anything more, because I'm not sure these posts have been particularly informing to begin with, but it's not like there is anything else for me to blog about this summer.
These third order differences are through games of Sunday, June 28th.
Underrated
1. Nationals -9.9
2. Rays -7.2
3. Indians -6.2
4. Diamondbacks -4.9
5. Mets -2.8
Overrated
1. Giants +6.6
2. Brewers +5.0
3. Tigers +4.5
4. Rangers +3.7
5. Reds +3.5
5. Dodgers +3.5
I think I'm more interested in fading the overrated teams than playing the underrated teams. The underperformance of their third order records just hasn't translated into plays on the Rays or Mets.
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4 comments:
"The underperformance of their third order records just hasn't translated into plays on the Rays or Mets."
I think a better question is whether the underperformance of the Rays/Mets leads to them being profitable in the future, not necessarily whether they have or haven't been plays based on our process.
I think a better question is whether the underperformance of the Rays/Mets leads to them being profitable in the future, not necessarily whether they have or haven't been plays based on our process.
I agree. I'm not dismissing them out of hand. I've just been surprised how long they've been at the bottom of the D3 list and how few plays we (I) have had on them.
Why does your site look like trash for me right now? Does my Firefox suck?
Why does your site look like trash for me right now? Does my Firefox suck?
What, no Redtube tab open? I'm sure Squisito thanks you for the advertising, though.
In all seriousness, I'm not sure. It's been shitty all day. I assume it has something to do with Blogger. If it doesn't fix itself tomorrow, and I have nothing to do, I might change the theme.
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