Leans 6/30

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Geez, solid night for everyone last night.

Leans
705p CLE (Lee) -190 vs. CHW (Richard)
705p BAL (Hill) +116 vs. BOS (Smoltz)
710p ARZ (Haren) -136@ CIN (Arroyo)
710p ATL (Lowe) -126 vs. PHL (Blanton)
1010p OAK (Morrow) +107 vs. DET (Galarraga)

I'm really not a fan of potentially laying that much chalk.

Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 7

Anyone have any idea how much juice a game is worth in tennis O/Us? I'm really tempted to play the Williams/Azarenka over. Sportingbet.com has the O/U set at 22 (-120/-120). Using Pinny's 21.5 (-119/+103) line as a guide, does that mean that each half game is worth roughly 2.5%, with some obvious adjustments as you get farther away from the true line? At best, that makes o19.5 somewhere around 62-65% to win, which seems to be a borderline play at 7. Since it's 530a and I don't have a lot of confidence in my math, I think this is a pass.

Start w/d isn't a terrible option in the afternoon, either, if your streak is under 5 or so.

1 comments:

Kunk said...

I am glad to have SIA splits back in my life now that interleague is over. That said, I don't think you're going to have to worry about laying -190. Cliff was pretty popular at SIA.

Texas and the Nubinals will likely make the card, as well.