I woke up too early this morning.
Plays
335p San Diego +179 2x
405p Oakland +133 2x
805p Cleveland -104 2x
Streak for the Cash
10a Iraq/S. Africa u2.5 goals
305p Colorado vs. Seattle
8p Orlando vs. Los Angeles
Current Streak: 0
I guess Hammel in the afternoon? I don't know. The Streakmaster did a good job today.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
This may be a stupid thought or something extremely obvious but I figured I'd throw it out there...
When looking at the consensus #s, do you compare them at all to the expected win probability based on the line?
For example, 68% of the public were on the Braves today against the O's even though the opening line of -120 represents a 54% chance of the Braves winning.
On the other hand, you like the Padres today with 70% on the LAA. The -180 opening line represents a 65% chance of the Angels winning.
My thought is that the higher the line is, the more the consensus numbers will inevitably be skewed. So, I find teams like the Twins, Orioles and Royals to be far more enticing than the Padres.
We've been over this a few times. When I first start betting on baseball this season, I had thought the same thing.
I think the confusion comes in assuming that equal amounts are being bet on both sides of a moneyline. See here for the math.
I don't think what I wrote there is explicitly correct, either, but I think it is closer to the real answer than assuming all bets are equal.
Post a Comment