Friday 3/13 - PM

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I'm satisfied with 2-1 +3x this afternoon. I've got another huge card tonight, relative to the number of games. It really shouldn't be all that surprising and I think MoneyLine had the best quote surrounding the phenomenon:

I feel like a total fucking idiot playing so many games, but really, these cards and the first 2 rounds of NCAA's probably provide more opportunity for us than any other time of year aside from maybe bowl season.
Lots of extra square action + inability of squares to evaluate teams correctly = value for contrarians.

Plays
630p Temple +4.5 -108 2x
9p Duquesne +2.5 +100 3x
9p San Diego State +2 +105 3x
9p Arizona State -1 +102 3x
930p Duke -10 -104 2x
930p West Virginia -6.5 +101 2x
Passes: Baylor, Nova, UCLA

I struggled with making WVU a 2x or 3x. I've been going conservative on coin flips, and I didn't think it was worth making an exception here.

Streak for Cash
930p West Virginia vs. Syracuse
Current Streak: 0

This is easily the most lopsided game I've seen on Streak since I got into it last week.

If my streak was at 0 and I was going to be around a computer tonight, I would play the Raptors, but that is a real weak lean. Given how strong WVU is, if you even have 1, I would pass the 7p games.

3 comments:

moneyline said...

Now all I need is a cute little quip to rationalize the 6 NBA wagers I just made.

Vegas Watch said...

"Given how strong WVU is, if you even have 1, I would pass the 7p games."

This is a bad strategy, I think. If you're going to be able to play the WVU game regardless, you're definitely better off even flipping a coin at 7pm than passing an opportunity altogether. The fact that there isn't an obvious edge for one side in Streak doesn't mean the game isn't worth playing.

am19psu said...

If you're going to be able to play the WVU game regardless, you're definitely better off even flipping a coin at 7pm than passing an opportunity altogether

You're almost certainly right at 1. I was overstating. There is obviously some threshold where a coin flip is bad to play, but 1 isn't it, as long as 27 is the goal.