Tuesday 2/3

Seth Davis is an idiot. There, I had to get that off my chest. I swear he is attempting to write like the Peter King of college basketball, which isn't a good thing. And yes, Seth, you are the only one still on the bandwagon of the team ranked 48th by KP and 72nd in the RPI.

Earlier today, Jonny sent me a link to RPI Forecast. Not only do they have the current RPI standings, but they predict how the RPI will look at the end of the season using Sagarin's ratings for prediction. I've seen people try to use Sagarin's ratings as a gambling tool before in football, but never hoops. For the relevant games I'm looking at tonight, I'll compare the Sagarin results to the KenPom predictions.

I have no idea what this means currently, but I figure it will be something to look at the rest of the year.

Tonight's card has me perplexed, again. In order of contrarianess, the biggest leans would be SDSU, AFA, Depaul, tOSU. However, the SDSU line movement has been screwy all day. In addition, as shown above, the KP numbers are way off in the AFA and Depaul games. If this was football, and I didn't have KP numbers to lean on, my card would be a pretty simple AFA, Depaul, tOSU, but that obviously didn't work all that well this year, either. I think it's pretty obvious that I have myself completely mind-twisted and should stop thinking so much about this stuff.

7p Ohio State +1.5 +108 2x
8p Air Force +11.5 +104 2x
9p Depaul +11.5 +101 2x
1030p San Diego State +5 +108 2x

But, hey, at least I got positive juice on all of these losers.

Good luck tonight.


Sham said...

You don't think Notre Dame is a top-20 team? I'm not feelin' that.