Super Sunday 2/1

I guess people are realizing Duke is good again.

2p South Florida +2.5 +103 2x
Pass: Missouri State

Onto the Super Bowl. I hate to say it, but I like the Steelers in this game. All of the hype for Fitzgerald and Warner has actually pushed the non-betting general public to think the Cards are going to win straight up. At most other places, I'm seeing between 55-60% of the action coming in on Chicago St. Louis Phoenix Arizona.

620p Pittsburgh -6.5 -104 3x

It wouldn't be the Super Bowl without props either. Matchbook doesn't have a great prop market, but I think I found some lines with value. When I'm out 8 units at the end of the day, everyone can laugh at me.

James O39.5 Rushing Yards +110 1.82x to win 2x
Each Team Scores >14 - No +142 1.41x to win 2x
Fitzgerald U82.5 Receiving Yards +170 1.18x to win 2x - That price is a bit ridiculous
Warner U235 Passing Yards +174 1.15x to win 2x

For the record, +175 equals a break even probability of 36%. Fitzgerald was less than 82.5 yards 9/16 or 56% of regular season games. If you include playoffs, it was still 9/19 or 47% of games. I'm getting good value there.

Warner on the other hand, not so much. There were only 3/16 regular season games where he was less than 235 and one he had exactly 235, so that works out to a probability of 22%. Not good value. I wish I had thought to do these calculations before I placed the bets.

The other two props don't really have a good way of determining the probability. James was non-existent down the stretch for the Cards, but has been getting the bulk of the carries in the post-season. For the team totals prop, I don't think you can really look at it other than to see how many games the Steelers held their opponent under 14 this year. The Steelers did that half the time. So, there might be value in +142, which equals a break even probability of 42%.

Good luck with whatever you choose to play tonight.