Saturday 1/31

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I know Vegas and I just had a long discussion about how to use Pomeroy numbers. I agreed with him that >1 point was too stringent of a baseline. However, Tech is predicted to lose by 12 and I think that is enough to push the game to a pass, particularly with the screwy line movement.

Yes, I am tracking my passes. I'm really just emphasizing which games you should be betting on. My passes this week have been like Squeeky's NCAAF passes in 2007, which really makes this post look like a good idea.

Earlies (12p-159p)
12p West Virginia +6 -106 3x
145p Iowa State +9.5 -113 2x
Passes: Georgia Tech, Washington State, Indiana State

Middays (2p-359p)
Passes: Georgetown, Tulane

Appetizers (4p-559p)
4p Indiana +7 -103 2x
4p Kansas State +10 -107 3x
4p Towson +3.5 -105 2x
Passes: None

Dessert (6p-759p)
6p BYU -16 -112 2x
7p Old Dominion -1.5 -108 2x

7p Georgia +7.5 -103 2x
7p Detroit +4 -106 3x
7p Florida Intl +2 +101 2x
730p Oregon +4 -106 2x
Pass: Marshall

I didn't understand why everyone was chirping about BYU. They are certainly anti-public, but not eye-poppingly so. Then I headed over to KenPom and saw that BYU is predicted to win by 22, BYU is the 275th luckiest team in the country (meaning they are likely underrated by the public) and Wyoming is the 7th luckiest. Ok, then.

Nightcaps (8p-12a)
8p Ill-Chicago +2 +102 2x
10p Fresno State +6 -112 3x
- Gay
Passes: Depaul, Colorado State

Good luck tonight.

4 comments:

moneyline said...

Clinch has missed 7 of Tech's games. I am not saying that he is good, or even worth an extra point let alone 5, but you might to keep this stuff in mind if you are going to continue to weigh the predicted scores when making your plays.

am19psu said...

Good point. I hadn't realized that about Clinch. I was initially confused by the Portland/SMC line for the same reason this morning.

am19psu said...

I should probably point out that one of the reasons I am leaning heavily on Pomeroy is because I am watching far less basketball this year than I did previously. Having a job which requires attendance at 630a really cuts down on how late I can stay up at night.

Vegas Watch said...

The other thing about BYU is how patently absurd the line is at first glance when just looking at their records.