What is contrarianism?

In the last post, I arrogantly stated that I know more about gambling than you. In this post, I will also pompously assert that I know more about college football, pro football, or college basketball than you. Am I claiming this to stroke my own ego? A little bit. But it's mainly to prove a larger point: as much as I think I know about sports, I know nothing. Absolutely nothing. This is the hardest thing for recreational gamblers to overcome.

While being able to name the Super Bowl Champion from 1987 or how many yards LaDanian Tomlinson ran for in 2005 or how Jared Odrick mastered the 3-gap technique in the offseason may be able to impress people at the bar, it won't win you any points gambling. The bottom line is, no matter how much you know, the sportsbooks know more than you or me do.

Now that we have that cleared up, why is it important? Realize that for any reason why you think one side or another is a good bet, Vegas has already considered it. For example, I've seen people rationalize fades of West Coast NFL teams because they know that, statistically, those teams are likely to have a let down when traveling east. If you know that, don't you think Vegas does too?

The next logical question to ask is: "but I always heard that Vegas sets lines to get equal action, why does any of this matter?" And the answer is simple. Vegas DOES NOT always set lines to attract equal action on both sides. There are many times where sportsbooks will set a line to gain action on a side. For example, last year, before anyone besides Illini faithful knew who Arrelious Benn was, Vegas set the line for the Illinois-Penn State game in Champaign at PSU -3. That line drew 80% of the bets (note: not money, but it was still uneven) on Penn State. Naturally, behind the competent quarterbacking of Anthony Morelli, Penn State went on to lose the game 27-20. Had I not had my rule about not betting on Penn State, I would have loaded up the Illini as at least a 5x bet.

Now, to put all of this together, here is my gambling philosophy: contrarianism. Yes, I know Google Spell Check doesn't think it is a word. Essentially, what it boils down to is whenever you hear Joey Sixpack say "Dude, Notre Dame is a f---ing lock, brah!" go the other way. Unfortunately, it's not quite as easy as it sounds. On Thursday, we'll look at ways to identify the sides that squares are pounding.