Leans NFL Week 8/CFB Week 9

,
I'd like to just put a zero up for this post. At least the NFL looks relatively painless this week.

Definite Plays
8p USF +3 vs. WVU (Fri.)
12p Cuse +14.5 vs. Cincy
12p NCSU +9.5 @ FSU
1p SoMiss +6.5 @ Hou
330p Wake +7.5 vs. Miami
330p Ariz St +6.5 vs. Cal
330p Ill +7 vs. UM
730p Vandy +11.5 vs. GT

  • All of these college plays may be too aggressive. I'm obviously going to investigate further throughout the week.
  • I'll be glad to have Greg Paulus and Juice Williams back in my life Saturday. I missed you guys.
  • I like fading overrated Florida teams. Unfortunately, that only applies to two of the three this week.
  • If Wagerline's numbers are to be believed, the SoMiss/Hou is going to take in an absurd amount of action for a C-USA game.


Borderline Contrarian Plays
1220p Auburn +3.5 vs. Ole Miss
1230p Baylor +13.5 vs. Neb
130p Colo +3.5 vs. Mizzou
330p Fla -15 vs. UGa

1p BUF +3.5 vs. HOU
415p GB -3 vs. MIN
415p CAR +10 @ ARZ

  • I initially thought that the Auburn/Ole Miss game would be a pass, but I forgot that Ole Miss has a pro style, SEC quarterback.
  • Did the public miss Nebraska losing to Texas Tech and Iowa State the last two weeks?
  • I actually like Florida as a side this week, which means I should pass.
  • None of that NFL garbage looks appealing, though I'm sure some of it will spill over to make my Sunday miserable.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
330p CMU +5 @ BC
8p Minny +3.5 vs. Sparty

  • Not that anyone has noticed, but the Chips are a pretty good football team this year.
  • I was surprised to see the Minny line still posted after Decker's injury announcement today. I can't wait to back a completely neutered Gopher team.

3 comments:

rexfordbuzzsaw said...

I think the MNF Under 54 is at least a "Borderline Contrarian Play."

am19psu said...

I'm admittedly not skillful at thinly slicing totals, but that seems pretty high for an NFL total, MNF history notwithstanding.

rexfordbuzzsaw said...

Total is high, but New Orleans is averaging almost 40 points a game by themselves, scored 46 last week and Atlanta let up 37 last week. Then there is the whole MNF history.