Tuseday 3/24 - The Return of Trisomy 21

I love Penn State. It's literally my favorite place to be and where I hope to raise a family someday. I have absolutely nothing negative to say about it and am a rabid fan of all of the university's sports teams.

But that's not going to stop me from making fun of homers on Penn State's Scout Premium Message Board about tonight's PSU/UF basketball game where Penn State is an 11 point dog.

Just suprised [sic] the number is that high considering Florida has done nothing this year. Jagd, one quality OCC win and played in a terrible conference.

Penn State Top OOC games by KPom:

L vs. (50) Temple
L vs. (71) URI (in Philly)
W @ (94) GaTech
W vs. (140) Mt. St. Mary's
W vs. (168) Sacred Heart

Florida Top OOC games by KPom:

L vs. (12) Syracuse (CBE in KC)
W vs. (15) Washington (CBE in KC)
L @ (39) Fla St
W vs. (80) NC State
W vs. (127) Bradley

And Florida's only quality OOC win (in fact, only quality win the entire season) came on a neutral court against a Washington team that was 2-2 at the time,

Obviously, Washington's record at the time is more relevant than being a 4-seed in the varsity tournament.

The line was said to be down to 9 (dont quote me on that) since I pulled it off the hoops board. They obviously get 3-5 points for being at home. So that makes them a 4 point favorite on a neutral court.

The line opened at 11, is currently 10.5-11 and hasn't dropped below 10.5. Florida would be favored by more than 4 in Happy Valley. Also, sorry for quoting you on that.

Vegas lines are based off how people bet, so yes.


Is Florida even motivated in this game? Coming from a school that has won two football national championships and two basketball national championships in the very recent past, will anyone care about a home NIT game?

I can't tell.

Florida -11 +109 3x
Pass: Auburn

Do I really need to comment more? Sure! KPom has this game as a 9 point spread, but Cornley (as mentioned previously) and Battle (runner up BigTen POY) are both banged up, accounting for the difference.

Streak for the Cash
9p Penn State/Florida U141.5 Points
Current Streak: 1

More anti-pub chalk for me. UPDATE: Thanks for Vegas pointing out in the comments that the Auburn/Baylor game was actually a prop for most 3-pointers made. I'm not sure if it is my three year old computer or just a coding glitch by ESPN, but I had to do a little searching to find that answer. As always, I'm an idiot.

Also, I'm glad it took me a month of playing to notice there was an article in there. I read good.


Vegas Watch said...

Read the details of the Baylor-Auburn SftC prop a bit more closely. Threw me off, too.

am19psu said...

Well, ESPN did a good job of hiding that from me.

Anonymous said...

Ugh. Playing the homer card would've worked nicely tonight. Even homers on the Scout message board are right sometimes, I guess...