Like I said, chicken garbage. If you recall, I looked at college football line movement a few weeks ago. When looking at the graph below, remember that it is tabulated using only my Tuesday leans from the year. Again, though, I think this is the relevant sample that, at least, I should be looking at. At first glance, the hypothesis that reverse (negative) line movement is good for the contrarian gambler looks decent. When interpreting the results, you should compare what my overall record was (terrible) compared to the winning percentage of lines with reverse movement (marginal).
Unlike college football, in the NFL, the magnitude of the reverse movement doesn't appear to be all that significant.
Also, in the NFL, there are far less lines that move throughout the week than there are in college football, which shouldn't be much of a surprise since teams are much more evenly matched and more about each team is known.
As always, feel free to tell me what a retard I am in the comments.
2 comments:
great stuff again. the contrarian game with >1pt reverse line move continues to look nice. obviously not as powerful as NCAAF but it makes sense why.
What are your parameters for your records? Just strictly line movements?? The major factor in the reverse line movement theory is that 70% (for example) or more of the money is on one side as the line goes the other way.
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