More Line Movement Stats

Jonny came up with a good idea for another stat to look at. He wanted to know what effect crossing a key number (3 or 7) had on the records. In this case, I started running into sample size issues. I didn't even bother running the stats for favorites because I play so few of them that results would be worthless. Results are posted below:

Nomenclature:

"7 Dog +" means the line moved from 6.5 or less to 7 or above.
"7 Dog -" means the line moved from 7.5 or more to 7 or below.
"3 Dog +" means the line moved from 2.5 or less to 3 or above
"3 Dog -" means the line moved from 3.5 or more to 3 or below.



I find it very interesting that even with the small sample size, it appears line movement around key numbers is a bad thing for contrarians, at least this season. Again, take this post with the usual caveats of where the sample came from, particularly in this case.

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Yes, I am bored tonight. I put together some other relevant stats. First, a frequency distribution of line movement.



I am not at all surprised that this approaches a normal distribution (other nerds know this is due to the law of large numbers and the central limit theorem), but is left skewed, since I am trying to be on the sharp side of games. Note that this is just leans, so I am obviously preferentially picking out the sharp sides on Tuesdays. Which is some decent affirmation that record aside, I know what I am doing.

The other graph shows the record for all line movements. This is basically just expanding on Wednesday's post, but I thought somebody might be interested in it.



Not much really surprising here except for positive and negative line movements of one point. I don't have a good subjective reason for it, so I am just going to chalk it up to small sample size and variance.

If there are any other analyses that seem interesting and won't take an obscene amount of time, throw them in the comments and I'll see what I can do.