The Busting of the BCS

It certainly appears that this is the week that Vegas had circled as the week the BCS goes to complete hell. All three major conference, undefeated teams are going to be incredibly public this week and the bookmakers don't seem to be in any hurry to adjust the lines. I would wager a few units that straight up at least one of these teams go down, and would probably take +300 odds that at least two do. Let's take a closer look at the games.

#9 Oklahoma State (8-1) @ #2 Texas Tech (9-0)

Football reasoning: Simple. The Cowboys are the only team in the Big XII conference to play some semblance of defense. The Pokes are the only team to keep Texas under 30 (though most likely a statistically insignificant 28). They have the highest rated team defense in the Big XII at Number 39 nationally.

Also, and this may be square logic, but isn't it possible that Texas Tech put together its first complete game against a big name opponent on its biggest ever stage? Here are some other scores this season from the Red Raiders: 35-19 over Nevada, 37-31 (OT) against Nebraska, 43-25 over Texas A&M. Wins, yes, but not the kind that impress the oddsmakers.

Contrarianism: As such, the Red Raiders opened up as only three point favorites, which seems a bit odd since they just beat the near-unanimous #1 team on the same field by six.

#1 Alabama (9-0) @ #16 LSU (6-2)

Football reasoning: Let's be honest, LSU has looked like hell it's last three games, getting half a hundred hung on them by the Gators in the Swamp and at home against Georgia then following those up by letting Tulane hang around for a while before pulling away. [EDIT: I spent an hour looking up facts about all of these teams and I miss the game time? Pretty clear why there is so much red to the right. Thanks, anon.]

Also, what has Alabama actually done this year? Yes, they went between the hedges and thumped Georgia for a half. What did that score end up? 41-30. Not quite the blowout everyone makes it out to be. Other than that, the Tide have played an absolute garbage schedule, not unlike Texas Tech and Penn State. And in that garbage schedule, the Tide have only managed to end up 61st nationally in total offense.

Contrarianism: LSU opened as a three point dog and that is where the line sits currently. Alabama is not getting hammered, but certainly is the more public side. The same logic from above applies: shouldn't the #1 team in the country be giving a bit more than three points to the #16 team?

#3 Penn State (9-0) @ Iowa (5-4)

Football reasoning: It could be argued that Penn State is the most complete team in the country, ranking 11th in total offense and 6th in total defense. But, like the pretenders above them, who have they played? Obviously, there was the night game at tOSU, which appears to have excited no one outside of Pennsylvania. Also, Penn State wiped the floor with the team that is currently sitting atop the Pac Ten standings. Everything else on the Penn State schedule is worthless.

Iowa, however, is an interesting team. While only sitting with a 2-3 conference record, their four losses are by a combined 12 points. Shonn Greene is 3rd in the nation in rushing and Ricky Stanzi is a decent passer by Big Ten standards.

Contrarianism: But, realistically, I would be predicting a huge Penn State victory on Saturday if the line opened at something remotely honest. Instead, Vegas decides to open the line at 7 and has only moved it to 7.5, practically begging you to bet on the Nittany Lions. This game is very reminiscent, at least from a betting perspective, of last year's Penn State-Illinois game, where Penn State got upset 27-20 in Champaign. Finally, I'll leave you with a quote from the blogfather (who also happens to be an Iowa alum), Moneyline:

Iowa is going to fuck Penn St in their stupid asses.

Well said, sir.