Review of Week 16

I actually have nothing to bitch about this week. I wish I had seen the Lions had the flu before I put my wager in, but the line didn't react to it, so if anything, it probably made them more attractive.

VCU +13 @ Oklahoma 1x
Pittsburgh -7 @ Florida State 1x
Providence +5 @ Boston College 1x

What did happen was that I backdoored two and a half games in two days. I fully expect that karma will bite me in the ass and I will lose my next ten basketball wagers. VCU was down 18 with under two to play, Pitt needed a 8-0 run to close out the game to cover, and I'd love to know what happened in the Providence game, but Yahoo went on the fritz. I know I was confused when Matchbook graded it a tie on Saturday.

I'll be on TCU tomorrow, most likely for a triple. As VW pointed out, Santa Clara and Wisky will be must plays on the buckets side.

Sunday 12/21

I had another decent day yesterday. Maybe I remembered how to wager intelligently? I'll go with Option B: Variance.

Early Games

Detroit +7 -103 2x
Cleveland -3 +116 2x
New England -7.5 2x

Passes: Tennessee, New England

Detroit was nearly upgraded to a 3x play. I still might drop another 1x on it.

For Cleveland, -3 +116 is slightly better than -2.5 -108. Plus, I'm a juice whore.

I changed my mind on New England and bought it back. The more I look into it, the less I like it. Really the only metric that makes them appealing is Wagerline. Every other consensus number I can find is bad.

Tennessee didn't make the cut for line movement reasons.

Late Games

NFL
Washington +5 -102 2x
Oakland +7 +104 2x

NCAAB
Pittsburgh -7 +104 1x

Nightcap

NCAAF
Southern Miss +4.5 -101 2x

Going by straight numbers, this is a better play than either Colo St or Rizo was yesterday. For some reason, I feel much less confident in the Eagles.

Good luck today.

Thursday 12/18

I felt like Matchbook was running low on funds, so I put in a few losers for this evening.

Jacksonville +6 -113 2x

This line is actually better than the +5.5 -108 that was also available.

Mississippi State +5 +100 1x

The only things I know about this team is that Hanblow's little brother transferred and that their coach doesn't like the towelheads. I'm sure Cincy will win by 30.

Leans - NFL Week 16 and Bowls

Passing the entire NCAAB slate. I didn't get a whole lot of time to look at anything again and there are no games that jump right out at me. There is no need to force anything before conference season starts up.

I haven't seen a whole lot of other respectable gambler's leans yet, but I am a bit surprised that there is this much chalk on my current card. I checked my plays from the last two years and I only played three and two favorites respectively. This isn't troubling because as I've talked about recently, I think there is some upside to anti-pub chalk (even though Moneyline has some reservations).

Bowl Leans will be updated next Tuesday, NFL Leans Friday.

Strong Leans

Arizona -3 vs. BYU (12/20)
Colo St +3 vs. Fresno (12/20)
TCU -2.5 vs. Boise (12/23)
Oregon +3 vs. Okla St (12/30)
Nevada -1.5 vs. Maryland (12/30)
Mich St +7.5 vs. Georgia (1/1)
Cincy -2 vs. VT (1/1)
Ole Miss +4.5 vs. Texas Tech (1/2)

DET +7 vs. NO
SEA +5 vs. NYJ
OAK +7 vs. HOU

Moderate Leans

Wisky +5 vs. FSU (12/27)
NW +12 vs. Mizzou (12/29)
Buffalo +4.5 vs. UConn (1/3)
tOSU +9 vs. Texas (1/5)

JAX +6 vs. IND (Thu.)
NE -9 vs. ARZ
WAS +5 vs. PHL

Weak Leans

So Miss +4.5 vs. Troy (12/21)
Hawaii -1 vs. ND (12/24)
FAU +7 vs. CMU (12/26)
NCSU +8.5 vs. Rutgers (12/29)
Minny +10 vs. Kansas (12/31)
Oregon St -3 vs. Pitt (12/31)
Kentucky +2.5 vs. ECU (1/2)

MIN -3.5 vs. ARZ