Showing posts with label nfl week 15. Show all posts
Showing posts with label nfl week 15. Show all posts

Review of Week 15

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I had a good week. That makes two in a row. In the words of the immortal Lou Brown, win another week and "we've got ourselves a winning streak." No need to go through all the games because there was only one nausea-inducer this week.

Baltimore -3 vs. Pittsburgh 2x

There is some question as to the rules interpretation here from Holmes' TD catch. The play was initially ruled a completion and down at the one. Then, Walt Coleman overturned the call. I've seen some people claim that a little known rule should apply that (From 951 on RMMB):

Should a receiver make a legal catch of the ball with both feet in bounds in the end zone, a touchdown shall be awarded even if no part of the ball was deemed to break the plane of the goal line while in possession of the receiving player.



Of course, WillyDuer found conflicting evidence:

Your hard copy is as recent as anything I can find online. NFL.com is useless, which is kind of surprising. The AP game recap cites page 776, which discusses the ball's location and not the receiver's feet. Perhaps there's still an exception that means that feet = touchdown, even though it's inconsistent with everything else.


Which is fine. I can accept that there may have been some gray area in the rulebook. What is absolutely not true is this (from Peter King's MMQB):

I called NFL vice president of officiating Mike Pereira, who'd spoken with Coleman and the replay assistant following the game. Now, I have to tell you that in my jobs at NBC and Sports Illustrated I have occasion to speak with Pereira nearly every weekend about a play or two from the games, either to clarify something for the Football Night in America show or for my column. Pereira calls them the way he sees them. My experience is that Pereira does not whitewash a bad call. And last night, I asked him point blank if he thought there was indisputable visual evidence that the ball broke the plane of the goal line. "Yes, I do,'' he said.


Bull. Shit. Not a single person in America except Walt Coleman and Mike Pereira believes that.

Whatever, I was still up 5x for the day. Enough bitching. Let's watch Syracuse win by 30.

Sunday 12/14

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It was nice to take a few days off from thinking about gambling. Back to the grind today with NCAAB starting up tomorrow.

Early Games

Cincinnati +6.5 +106 2x
Houston +3 -110 2x
Washington 2h -3.5 +111 1x


Late Games

Minnesota +3.5 +108 2x
Carolina -7.5 +104 2x
Oakland +6.5 +105 2x
Baltimore -3 +105 2x


Listening to Phil Simms is like watching a botched abortion.

The end of the Ravens' game makes gambling less than fun.

Nightcap

Dallas -3 -104 2x

Good luck.

Leans - Week 15, Part 2

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Passing the Bears tonight, though they do fit into that home, anti-public favorite category. I'll do a similar analysis for the NFL once the season is over. Leans are in order.

Strong Leans

BAL -3
DAL -3
OAK +7
CIN +7
HOU +3

Moderate Leans


CAR -9
KC +5.5
MIN +3
JAX +1

Leans - Week 15

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I'll be doing bowl game leans next week. Just NFL Week 15 in this post.

Strong Leans


DAL -3 vs. NYG
CIN +6.5 vs. WAS
OAK +7 vs. NE

Moderate Leans

CAR -7.5 vs. DEN
BAL -1 vs. PIT
HOU +3 vs. TEN
KC +5 vs. SD
JAX +1 vs. GB


Weak Leans


BUF +7 @ NYJ
TB +3 @ ATL

With only three tiers, I wasn't sure how to express this, but the moderate leans are in order and there is a pretty significant drop off between the Texans and Chiefs in my mind.