Super Sunday 2/1

I guess people are realizing Duke is good again.

2p South Florida +2.5 +103 2x
Pass: Missouri State

Onto the Super Bowl. I hate to say it, but I like the Steelers in this game. All of the hype for Fitzgerald and Warner has actually pushed the non-betting general public to think the Cards are going to win straight up. At most other places, I'm seeing between 55-60% of the action coming in on Chicago St. Louis Phoenix Arizona.

620p Pittsburgh -6.5 -104 3x

It wouldn't be the Super Bowl without props either. Matchbook doesn't have a great prop market, but I think I found some lines with value. When I'm out 8 units at the end of the day, everyone can laugh at me.

James O39.5 Rushing Yards +110 1.82x to win 2x
Each Team Scores >14 - No +142 1.41x to win 2x
Fitzgerald U82.5 Receiving Yards +170 1.18x to win 2x - That price is a bit ridiculous
Warner U235 Passing Yards +174 1.15x to win 2x

For the record, +175 equals a break even probability of 36%. Fitzgerald was less than 82.5 yards 9/16 or 56% of regular season games. If you include playoffs, it was still 9/19 or 47% of games. I'm getting good value there.

Warner on the other hand, not so much. There were only 3/16 regular season games where he was less than 235 and one he had exactly 235, so that works out to a probability of 22%. Not good value. I wish I had thought to do these calculations before I placed the bets.

The other two props don't really have a good way of determining the probability. James was non-existent down the stretch for the Cards, but has been getting the bulk of the carries in the post-season. For the team totals prop, I don't think you can really look at it other than to see how many games the Steelers held their opponent under 14 this year. The Steelers did that half the time. So, there might be value in +142, which equals a break even probability of 42%.

Good luck with whatever you choose to play tonight.

Leans 2/1

I was expecting the chalk to be a bit more contrarian tomorrow. Knowing something about PSU, I expect to on Sparty tomorrow anyway.

Mizz St +10 @ Crate (or Cr8t, which is terrible)
USF +3 @ Johns
Duke -22.5 vs. UVa
Nova -12 vs. Cincy
Sparty -12.5 vs. PSU

I'm so pissed after reading what happened to Fresblow. Assholes.

I hate being on the same side as Simmons. I'm really hoping I can find more reasons to pass this tomorrow.

Pittsburgh -6.5

Do you have to consider tomorrow's game a home game for the Hypercycloids?

Saturday 1/31

I know Vegas and I just had a long discussion about how to use Pomeroy numbers. I agreed with him that >1 point was too stringent of a baseline. However, Tech is predicted to lose by 12 and I think that is enough to push the game to a pass, particularly with the screwy line movement.

Yes, I am tracking my passes. I'm really just emphasizing which games you should be betting on. My passes this week have been like Squeeky's NCAAF passes in 2007, which really makes this post look like a good idea.

Earlies (12p-159p)
12p West Virginia +6 -106 3x
145p Iowa State +9.5 -113 2x
Passes: Georgia Tech, Washington State, Indiana State

Middays (2p-359p)
Passes: Georgetown, Tulane

Appetizers (4p-559p)
4p Indiana +7 -103 2x
4p Kansas State +10 -107 3x
4p Towson +3.5 -105 2x
Passes: None

Dessert (6p-759p)
6p BYU -16 -112 2x
7p Old Dominion -1.5 -108 2x
7p Georgia +7.5 -103 2x
7p Detroit +4 -106 3x
7p Florida Intl +2 +101 2x
730p Oregon +4 -106 2x
Pass: Marshall

I didn't understand why everyone was chirping about BYU. They are certainly anti-public, but not eye-poppingly so. Then I headed over to KenPom and saw that BYU is predicted to win by 22, BYU is the 275th luckiest team in the country (meaning they are likely underrated by the public) and Wyoming is the 7th luckiest. Ok, then.

Nightcaps (8p-12a)
8p Ill-Chicago +2 +102 2x
10p Fresno State +6 -112 3x - Gay
Passes: Depaul, Colorado State

Good luck tonight.

Friday 1/30

I actually seriously considered Valpo. Their consensus numbers aren't shabby at all. In the end, I decided I could find better spots than this to extend myself in the middle of a losing streak. I also contemplated Dartmouth, briefly.

I Hate Aubrey Coleman

I didn't even bet on Houston. However, there is no denying since that game, contrarians have taken a huge hit. Last week, through Saturday, I was riding a +25x streak. Since Sunday, I'm back down 21x.

I don't honestly believe that Aubrey Coleman is the reason for the downturn. As I mentioned a few times last week, I got the good side of variance. Now I'm seeing the ugly. I'm probably no better than a 52-54% gambler, so the return to the mean is inevitable. Still, it really affects my psyche when there is a significant point in the gambling season that coincides with a huge downturn in net profit.

There are a couple of unappealing Ivy League games tonight, a Metro Atlantic game, and a chance to fade Butler, but 17.5 on a garbage squad with a name like Valpo is unlikely to anti-public. I imagine I'll be passing everything tonight.

I can't wait to drop 20x on Saturday.

Thursday 1/29

An interesting card tonight. I'm really not sure what to make of it. All of the really good plays are from non-BCS conferences. I have a hard time pulling the trigger on a 3x play on the Chips or Bows when I don't really know a whole lot about either team. There was no getting around it with the Owls, though. Everything just lined up there.

7p Iowa +6 +109 2x
7p Florida Atl +2.5 -104 3x
7p Central Mich +4 -108 2x
8p Hawaii +5.5 -107 2x
9p Alabama +4.5 -105 2x
10p Idaho -4.5 +100 2x
11p Gonzaga -9 -109 3x

Good luck tonight.

Leans 1/29

If you have any interest in using the Pomeroy numbers in your gambling strategy, you should read the comments section from last night's post. Vegas and I flesh out some relevant points.

I don't have time this morning to make a comprehensive leans list. That said, the following games intrigue me:

7p VT -1 vs. Clem
7p Iowa +5.5 vs. Sparty
9p Bama+5.5 @ Ark
10p Idaho -4 vs. Boise
1030p UCLA -9 vs. Cal
11p Gonzaga -8 vs. SMC

Wednesday 1/28

I've been doing some thinking about proper wagering recently. I used to think I was a volume player and that anywhere I thought I had the slightest of edges I should play. In other words, I had a difficult time figuring out which plays would hit and which wouldn't (and yet, I had a 1-5 sliding scale for my plays... intelligent). Lately, if you haven't noticed, my cards have been about 60-70% of other contrarians out there (well, except Jonny, for obvious reasons).

Some reasons that a game might get trimmed: not anti-public across all sites, more than a point of difference between Pomeroy and the line (like UTEP tonight), or significant forward line movement. I may overlook one of these reasons if the other two are strong (like Fake Miami tonight), but overall, I think this is a better wagering strategy. Either that, or if I really have no skill at choosing the better sides, I'll be decreasing my variance. Obviously, I'll be playing less games, but I feel confident I'll still have more than enough action.

Hopefully, I'm not too far behind the curve and I'm not posting the obvious here.

For tonight:

7p West Virginia -17 -107 2x
7p Villanova +3 +102 2x
7p Miami (OH) -16 -103 3x
730p Nebraska +4 +103 3x
8p Loyola-Chicago +4.5 +104 2x
8p Wichita State +5.5 +107 2x
9p Kansas State +3 -105 2x

Passes are pretty much everything on the leans list below. UTEP, Provo, Charlotte, and SDSU were the hardest cuts.

Good luck tonight.

Leans 1/28

Stronger Leans
7p Fake Miami -17.5 vs. NoIll
7p Chat +10 vs. Dav
7p Nova +3.5 vs. Pitt
730p Neb +4.5 vs. Kan
8p Wich St +5.5 @ Brad
8p UTEP +5.5 @ Hou
9p K-St +4 vs. Mizz
10p SDSU -12.5 vs. TCU

Weaker Leans
7p Ga St +5.5 @ Drex
7p WVU -16 vs. Johns
7p Prov -2 vs. Cuse
8p Ill-Chi +7 @ UW-GB
8p Loy-Chi +5.5@ UW-Mil
830p NW -13.5 vs. Ind
9p Dep +13 vs. UConn

These are probably going to change.

Tuesday 1/27

I have very little confidence in this card. Pomeroy is not on my side for the ACC games and there appears to be late forward line movement in both. I should mark them down as a loss already.

I don't hate Baylor nearly as much as everyone else does. I can't find the link from RMMB, but it was an epic meltdown over there. I had to have passed that game, since everyone still talks about it and I have no recollection of it. Anyway...

7p NC State +1.5 +107 2x
730p Maryland -5 -101 2x
9p Baylor -1.5 -101 3x

Good luck tonight.

Leans 1/27

Ever since the Houston debacle, the landscape has shifted for contrarians. Hopefully, tonight changes that.

7p NCSU +1.5 vs. Real Miami
7p Ole Miss +8.5 vs. UK
730p UMd -4 vs. BC
9p Wisky -1 vs. Pur
9p Baylor -1.5 vs. Texas
9p VCU -7 vs. NEastern
10p Utah -3.5 vs. BYU

I'm sure this will all change by this evening.

Monday 1/26

Oklahoma ended up getting matched. So, that leaves me with somewhere between a .06x and .065x loss for the night. Oh well. Here is the total wager.

9p Oklahoma State +2.5 +106 3x
9p Oklahoma -2.5 -106 3x

I know that the Pokes are the right side here tonight, but after all this screwing around, I just don't feel like playing the game. I guess I am costing myself +0.4x of EV or something along those lines. I'll sleep fine tonight.

As I suspected, Notre Dame isn't really public.

Good luck if you play the Cowboys.

Leans 1/26

If you were watching the site last night around 10p or so, you saw that I had put in

9p Oklahoma State +2.5 +106 3x

The lesson is: if you don't know what you're doing, don't do it. I have no idea how lines will react, but suddenly, I thought I knew something and got down on the Pokes. About fifteen minutes later, I checked Pinnacle and saw the line jumped to three. I immediately tried to sell off my OSU stake. I'm still waiting for someone to snatch it up on Matchbook. Hopefully it happens while I'm at work.

In the mean time, Oklahoma State has become almost unplayable with the line currently set at 3.5. I'm reasonably sure that I don't want to wager on a team that saw that much forward line movement, Pomeroy be damned.

The only other lean for tonight is Marquette, which seems unlikely, since the Eagles will probably be a top ten team when the rankings come out later today and Notre Dame is finally getting exposed.