That's More Like It

Sunday's results:

Plays: 0-5 -12x
Passes: 2-0-1

Sunday 1/25

I wish poker and blackjack went as well last night as the sports picks this week. Variance making up for the good night in Vegas, I suppose. Onto today:

130p Vanderbilt -1 -112 2x
2p Marshall +7 +101 2x
2p Toledo +5 -111 2x
345p Ohio State +3 -110 2x
4p West Virginia -1 -112 3x

I'd like to thank Matchbook again for setting great markets. Those juice prices are outstanding.

Ohio State isn't terribly contrarian, but the line is off from Pomeroy by 4 points. This is roughly the time of year when Pomeroy has a large enough sample to start being meaningful. Four points is meaningful enough for me.

Passes, in order: Hall, GW, Indiana.

Good luck today.

Saturday 1/24

Another Saturday, another afternoon reluctantly laying points with Duke. The half point move with Auburn didn't scare me off due to the excellent consensus numbers and the Pomeroy prediction.

Earlies (12p-159p)

12p Duke -16 +106 2x
1p Auburn +5 -103 3x

Passes: USF, Mizzou

A trip to Atlantic City just sort of came together. Putting in the rest of the days' plays in now. Good luck.

4p LaSalle +4 -104 2x
4p La Tech +9 -108 2x
4p Virginia -1 +109 2x
4p Eastern Michigan +3 -101 3x
6p Iowa +6.5 -119 2x
7p Rutgers +5 +109 2x

The Iowa line pisses me off, but I'm not liquid anywhere except Matchbook. Thanks, football season.

Passes
3p CMU +5.5 @ NoIll
4p W+M +7.5 @ Drexel
4p Baylor @ OU
6p Ore +13.5 @ Cal
6p CSU +7 @ Wyo
7p Ind St +11 @ Brad
8p FIU +2 @ ULM
815p ULaf +1.5 vs. USA
9p SDSU +7 @ BYU

Friday 1/23

No reason to force anything tonight while I'm riding a winning streak. Biggest pass was Youngstown, but they weren't even that anti-public. I'll be back with the usual Saturday Crap Shoot tomorrow. Good luck if you decide to play anything.

For what it's worth, I figured that Brown would be a play tonight because they just lost to Yale last weekend in Providence by 8. Clearly, the books weren't fooling anybody with that number.

Thursday 1/22

After whining about WVU, Wazzu, and UDub this morning and getting called out for it, two of the three ended up on my card anyway. In fact, WVU (if the value hasn't been sucked out by the move) and Wazzu were the only slam dunks on the card, as far as I could tell. Who is surprised?

7p West Virginia +5 +100 3x
7p Purdue -1 -102 2x
730p Geo. Washington +5.5 -107 2x
730p Detroit +5.5 -105 2x
9p Washington State +5.5 -108 3x
9p San Diego +3.5 +103 2x

Good luck tonight.

Leans 1/22

For once, it seems, the variance monster was nice to me. I ended up yesterday 6-2-1 +9.5x or so. Looking ahead to tonight, it's become clear that the books have a different opinion of West Virginia and the two Washington schools than anyone else in the country. Those three schools are getting close to the DNP list until their lines get back in order of how good they actually are.

Strong Leans
7p WVU +5.5 @ G'town
730 GW +5 vs. Dayton
9p Wazzu +5 vs. UCLA
9p USD +4 vs. St Mary

Moderate Leans
7p UW-GB +9.5 @ Butler
7p Pur +1 @ Minny
730p Det +5 vs. UIC
10p SJSU +5 vs. Ut St
11p UW -6.5 vs. USC

Weak Leans
9p NMSU pk @ Boise
9p Zags -26.5 @ Pep
1030p Cal -19 vs. Ore St

As always, I'm sure this will all change by tonight.

Wednesday 1/21

How the hell did this happen? I guarantee less than half these leans will be played (Ed. Note: Barely.), but this is my first run through the card (i.e. only really looked at Wagerline numbers). (630p Update) Here they are:

630p Northwestern +12 -105 3x
7p Old Dominion -20 -103 2x
7p St. Bonaventure +11 +102 2x
7p Richmond +3 -105 2x
730p Miami(FL) -6 +100 2x
8p Tulane +6 +101 2x
830p Iowa +3 -101 3x
9p Nebraska +13 +100 3x
9p Kansas State -3.5 -101 3x

No school has tormented over the last calendar year like K-State. I'm sure that won't continue tonight.

Leans
7p Duq +7 @ Joes
7p S Car -1.5 vs. Fla
7p Ind St +5 vs. So Ill
7p Rutg +10.5 vs. 'Ville
8p UTEP +6 @ UAB
8p Mizz St -1 vs. Drake
9p Mizz +1 @ Okie St
9p Aub +12 @ UK
9p Mem -26.5 vs. Rice
9p UNC -13 vs. Clem
10p BYU -8.5 vs. UNLV

Line movement was the reason why UNC, Indiana State, Rutgers, and Missouri missed the card (I'm aware Miami was in the same boat, but Pomeroy ended up being the deciding factor there). I hate the Valley, so Mizz St caught the axe. The other leans didn't turn out to be particularly anti-public, so they were easy to get a rid of with a card like tonight's.

Good luck with whatever you play, which could be a lot.

Tuesday 1/20

The problem with posting leans at 5:51a is twofold: a) Small sample size from the consensus sites and b) I'm not fully awake, causing me to do retarded things like mis-label dates. Either way, the leans weren't bad and I got my Crate.

8p Colorado +10.5 +102 2x
8p Eastern Michigan +4.5 +107 2x

Biggest passes were Akron and Duke, in that order.

Good luck tonight

Leans 1/20

How often these type of posts go up will be directly proportional to my ability to snooze my alarm twice, rather than the normal four times. From strongest to weakest:

8p E Mich +4.5 @ No Ill
7p E'ville +1.5 vs. Creighton (How does one abbreviate Creighton?)
7p Ill -7.5 vs. tOSU
7p Akron +4 @ Ohio
8p Duke -19 vs. NCSU
8p Colo +10.5 @ TTU

I'm sure this will all change by the time I get home.

Monday 1/19

I hate everybody that had off work today.

7p Pittsburgh -9.5 +106 2x

If I liked gambling, I would also play the Kansas/aTm under.

Also, instead of doing the weekly reviews, which don't make nearly as much sense in basketball as they do in football, I'll grade each wager at the end of the night/first thing in the morning by changing the color of the wager in the post. If there is anything super to write about, I'll try to bang it out before any of the rest of you degenerates wake up.

Good luck tonight.