Record Update - 8 Mar 2009

Betting on sports is stupid. I would love to see the sports books' bottom lines this year. Either I am better off flipping a coin or they are having a rough year, as well.



Conference tournament week has historically been a good week for contrarians. Hopefully, that continues this year.

Saturday 3/7

I'm not terribly enamored with this card from a gambling perspective. However, if you are interested in bubble teams and seeding, this entire weekend is going to be great.

Earlies (12p-159p)
None

Middays (2p-359p)
2p Texas A&M +1.5 +110 2x
330p Virginia +1.5 +103 3x
Passes: Iowa, Wyo

The consensus numbers aren't really there on aTm, but my gut is telling me this is the right play, with Mizzou coming off the big OU win and likely to move into the Top 10.

Appetizers (4p-559p)
4p Auburn -2 -104 3x

I guess I didn't want to play Arizona State that badly. Since I can't read digital clocks, I missed the tip at 2p (not 6p as I had posted earlier).

Dessert (6p-759p)
7p Richmond +6 -103 2x

Nightcaps (8p-12a)
9p West Virginia -2.5 +107 3x

That'll be it for me tonight. Good luck.


I've decided to keep track of my Streak For Cash, because it's fun and it's my blog. When else am I going to "gamble" on EPL soccer?

Streak For Cash
1215p Manchester United vs. Fullham (FA Cup)
4p Auburn vs. LSU (NCAAB)
9p West Virginia vs. Louisville (NCAAB)
10a Sat Atalanta/AC Milan U2.5 Goals (Italian Serie A)
Current Streak: 0

The hell if I know anything about Italian soccer, but U2.5 is -108 and I'm at 0, so I might as well throw something out there.

Leans 3/6

I actually don't have single lean for tonight, even with some smaller conference tourneys in play.

It took me five months to finally sign up for Streak for Cash. It's mildly interesting, so lacking anything else, I'll throw some leans up for it. I'm not sure if this will be a regular feature or not. These are in order:

10p Anaheim Ducks vs. Dallas Stars (ANA is a -160 fave at Pinny)
7p Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat (TOR is +1 but is a full 9 GB of MIA)
718a MAJ (ESP) lower Front 9 at Honda vs. Rose (GBR) (ML's plays this week were centered on MAJ)

Last night, I won with Penn State, so my streak now stands at 1. I'm actually going to do this, because it will give me something to look at today at work.

718a MAJ (ESP) lower Front 9 at Honda vs. Rose (GBR)

Streak for Cash is obviously just for fun, unless you truly think you are going to get 27 in a row. My betting style won't be straight contrarianism. Because ESPN isn't a book, chances are you are going to find value in some plays that you wouldn't find at a book. It'll be more like value betting. We'll see how well I do.

Thursday 3/5

I came really close to playing the late Arch Madness game. Instead, just a couple of passes for tonight.

Passes: Mizz St, X

Had the line not moved from 2.5 this morning to 4 currently, I would have played the Bears. Good luck if you play anything on this garbage card.

The only possible look for tomorrow is St. John's, but I doubt there is much value there after beating GTown on Tuesday.

Leans 3/5

Uh, wow. This card is not good tonight.

7p SoCar -2.5 vs. Tenny
9p X -9.5 vs. Dayton
930p Mizz St +2.5 @ Wich St

These plays are quite the stretch. Even the Arch Madness game is a likely pass. And yes, I wrote that sentence just to include Arch Madness.

Wednesday 3/4

I'm going to hopefully get to the time series stuff tonight. TheFiancee is off enlightening the minds of America's Youth, so I should have time.

730p Georgia Tech +4.5 -120 2x (not a typo)
730p Pittsburgh -10 +104 3x
8p Houston +7 -108 2x
8p Mississippi State +1 -105 2x
9p Missouri -4.5 -106 3x
9p Colorado +7 -111 3x

If these all lose tonight, I will be in my biggest hole of the season. Which wouldn't surprise me too terribly much. Good luck tonight.

Leans 3/4

Losing two games by the sum of a point is indicative of this little run I've been. Awful.

No afternoon games yet, so no early morning plays.

7p WVU -21.5 vs. Dep
7p NCSU -2 vs. BC
730p GT +4.5 vs. Real Miami
730p Pitt -10 vs. Marq
8p Hou +7 vs. Mem
8p UK -17 vs. UGa
9p UTEP -1 vs. UAB
9p Mizz -4 vs. OU
9p Colo +7 vs. aTm
9p Miss St +1 vs. UF

It doesn't look playable at all, but the 630p Pur/NW game is at the end of the card.

This card seems awful chalky. Mizzou, Pitt, and Miss St are the strongest leans.

Tuesday 3/3

Let's get the administrative business out of the way. Since there will likely be games during conference tourney week that tip prior to 6pm, the morning posts could possibly contain some plays. That's it. There might be some plays in the morning posts. So, uh, woo, I guess. Come baseball season, they will be a lot more common.

7p South Florida +2.5 +101 2x
8p Duke -12 -106 3x
9p Iowa +1.5 -107 3x
9p Maryland +1.5 +107 2x

I'm sure Greivis Vasquez will find a way to bend me over. Good luck tonight.

Leans 3/3

Hopefully, taking yesterday off switched things up. For what it's worth, both of yesterday morning's leans lost.

7p Iowa +1.5 vs. tOSU
7p USF +3.5 vs. Cincy
730p Johns +6 vs. GTown
8p Duke -12 vs. FSU
9p UMd +1.5 vs. Wake
9p NMex -4.5 vs. Utah

Well, that's only 50% of the major conference matchups tonight. It should be delightfully excruciating.

Also, conference tournaments start today. Yeah, I didn't realize it either. I was going to wait until the weekend to put my thoughts together on the topic, but I'll address a slight formatting change to the site tonight.

Monday 3/2

I have no idea how or why Notre Dame is not a contrarian side, but I'll be happy to watch two hours of 24 and not sweat a wager on this asshole:

Leans 3/2

Glad to see the books aren't afraid of setting ridiculous lines after a rough week.

7p ND -3.5 vs. Nova
9p Baylor +8 @ Texas

Baylor/Texas is currently OTB, but it opened at 8 last night. Not sure why it is off now.