Record Update - 19 April 2009

I love it when I say things like this to jinx myself:

I haven't lost a lot of money this weekend, so far...

Was anything other than 0-3 going to happen after I made that comment?



Not the best of weeks, though going 1-7 on the Nats and Rox really didn't help things. Those two teams are just flat garbage. Garbage that I will continue to bet on until the books start setting lines that are reasonable.

For anyone that is curious, I am 2-3 +2x on hockey wagers for the year. Woo.

I don't have any early leans. The only early game is the Patriots' Day contest at Fenway, and I doubt the 2/1 line will generate much public action. Of course, you know I'll be on the Nats +137 tomorrow night. Awesome.

Sunday 4/19

Look, I get enough to traffic to get spammed now. How cute.

I haven't lost a lot of money this weekend, so far, but the results have been maddening. Washington's collapse yesterday is just par for the course for their season. I don't think I'll get those seven points for the over in Vegas' pool.



For effect, here is the Nats' win probability from yesterday.

Plays
105p Oakland +110 2x
135p Washington +140 2x - Un-flipping-believable again
410p Colorado +116 2x

I think I am just going to bet on Washington every day until they go on a three game winning streak. I bypassed a few Wagerline teams to get to Colorado. A combination of large lines and liking Ubaldo got me to the Rox.

I'll put leans up tonight in my record update post.

Streak for the Cash
906a McIlroy over Durant (Verizon Heritage - Front 9)
110p Mets vs. Milwaukee
535p Iguodala more points, assists and rebounds than Turkoglu
1035p Paul more points than Anthony
Current Streak: 1

Ideally, the rest of the day will look like this: Giants, Blues, Paul. If the NYM/MIL game runs long, I'll probably end up with Iguodala and the Cubs. There isn't a whole lot of edge in the "ideal" games, but I'm obviously putting value on the added volume, which I think is correct at a low streak.

Paul is pretty clearly a coin flip (they both averaged 22.8 ppg this year). I don't know enough about the NBA to say whose defense is better so I am just picking somebody.

Good luck today.

Saturday 4/18

Last night was the type of night that makes me want to to quit gambling. I'm leaving the park around 10pm and my teams are 2-0-1 in the late innings. I ended up 1-2, both losses by a run. By the time I was getting ready to go to bed, the Rockies were up 3-0 in the 6th. The Dodgers won by a single run on a 4-run 7th inning. Naturally, I am going to wager on a lot of those same teams today.

Earlies (12p-6p)
1235p Pittsburgh -105 2x
105p Washington +148 2x - Just un-flipping-believable
110p Milwaukee +166 2x
340p Cleveland +119 2x
340p Colorado +161 2x

Atlanta got steamed right before I played the Pirates. The line dropped from -112 to -105. I'm sure that kind of line movement is a good sign.

Passing all of the late games. Good luck if you play anything.

NHL
105p Rangers +186 2x
605p Columbus +248 2x
805p Montreal +224 2x

I'm feeling frisky today, so I'm going to play some hockey sides. I'm not really doing any analysis, just following Tocchet and Gamblor over at RMMB. I'm flat betting these just like baseball sides.

Streak for the Cash
810p San Antonio vs. Dallas
1045p Portland vs. Houston
Current Streak: 0

They should put props out on things like:

Given earlier results, do you think am19psu's Streak will continue?
Yes +250
No -275

Friday 4/17 - PM

Headed to The Bank, so I don't have much time to do anything.

Plays
705p Washington +120 2x
705p Oakland +121 2x
710p Milwaukee +123 2x
1010p Colorado +144 2x
Pass: KC

I like Meche, but SIA numbers made me back off.

Not even going to look at Streak tonight, since I'll be at the game. Go Casey.

Good luck tonight.

Friday 4/17 - AM

I'm going to pass the two early games. Nothing really excites me there. I'll probably regret Cleveland this afternoon.

Leans
705p WAS (Lannan) +116 vs. FLA (Nolasco)
705p PIT (Maholm) +103 vs. ATL (Jurrjens)
705p OAK (Outman) +115 @ TOR (Purcey)
705p BAL (Guthrie) +136 @ BOS (Penny)
710p MIL (Bush) +110 @ NYM (Hernandez)
805p KC (Meche) -106 @ TEX (Harrison)
1010p COL (De La Rosa) +135 @ LAD (Wolf)

Sadly, I can't see any way that the Brewers, Rox, A's, and Nats aren't on my card. The other three will have to be re-evaluated tonight.

Streak for the Cash
110p Casey lower score than D. Johnson
Current Streak: 8

The morning matchup is a coinflip, and I have no idea on the Yankees prop. But the afternoon golf matchup is pretty nice. The Saw keeps a running ranking of the world's golfers. In it, you'll see Casey ranked 13th and Johnson no where to be found. The Saw estimates a line on this prop would be something like -175 or -200, so I'll bite and try to run the streak to eight.

Good luck today.

Thursday 4/16 - PM

I can't really complain about anything yet today. Let's see if Furyk can collapse and completely ruin these two bets like Percival did yesterday.

Plaus
705p Washington +124 2x
1005p San Francisco +163 2x

These Washington lines are getting out of hand. Obviously, the books still believe in them, so I guess I will, too, just like I did with West Virginia and UCLA.

Leans
105p CLE (Reyes) +194 @ NYY (Chamberlain)

I haven't quite figured out how to deal with these large lines yet. If the books wanted to play it safe, at -210/+190, they would be aiming for 67/33 splits to just win off the juice over time. I'm not sure what represents "public" or a "trap number" at spreads like that.

Streak for the Cash
Current Streak: 7

I'm not sold on anything in Streak, yet. At a lower streak, I would probably play Toronto followed by the hockey under. I still might try under 5.5, but I want to see how, if at all, the line moves.

Good luck tonight.

Thursday 4/16 - AM

I should have just canceled the late night bets after the Rays put in Troy Percival to blow it yesterday. There was zero chance of anything else coming in.

Plays
105p Cleveland +177 2x

When Cliff Lee leaves with a shoulder problem in the 3rd inning, I am not going to be happy.

Leans
705p WAS (Martis) +125 vs. PHL (Blanton)
1005p SF (Zito) +135 @ LAD (Stults)

Here are two things I don't want to back: Washington and Barry Zito. That should make for an optimistic evening.

Streak for the Cash
820a Johnson/Immelman over Villegas (PGA Verizon Heritage - Front 9)
100p Furyk over Baddeley (PGA Verizon Heritage)
Current Streak: 7

Using numbers from Bodog, I've got Johnson/Immelman at 61.4% JA to win this prop. In the afternoon, The Saw would have Furyk at -150, which is good enough for me*.

Good luck today.

*-Depending on others' posts this morning, I may audible off Furyk on to the soccer under.

Wednesday 4/15 - PM

Happy I passed everything in Streak this afternoon. I still don't know about the tennis side; with Safin at -155, was it highly probable he wouldn't win convincingly in straight sets? I have no idea. The soccer side was garbage from the start.

Plays
705p San Diego +174 2x
1005p San Francisco +148 2x

I would have been on the Nats, but it's already been postponed. I'm surprised that the Padres are as anti-public as they are against Perez. It's not like that guy is a Cy Young candidate. Also, Cain, apparently, is a bit underrated, which is nice.

Leans
1210p FLA (Sanchez) +124 @ ATL (Kawakami)
105p CLE (Lee) +175 @ NYY (Sabathia)

I may not be around tomorrow morning to post plays because Blogger has a scheduled outage at 5a EDT. I'll still post the picks over at RMMB if for some strange reason you are trailing me.

Streak for the Cash
1030p Portland vs. Denver
Current Streak: 5

The two best plays are late at night. The Canucks/Blues under is -179, if the half point calculator is to be believed for hockey totals. However, Portland is an amazing -285 on the moneyline at Pinnacle. That's almost as good as last night's lottery pick. I don't really see a reason to take a coin flip early with Portland such a good selection later. Hopefully Streak puts together a better card tomorrow.

Wednesday 4/15 - AM

Plays
205p Colorado +206 2x
335p Oakland +100 2x
408p Tampa Bay -103 2x

I really couldn't decide who to pass and who to play, so I opted for all three. I'm sure that will look like a good decision around 7p tonight.

Leans
705p WAS (Martis) +121 vs. PHL (Blanton)
710p SD (Correia) +166 @ NYM (Perez)
805p CIN (Owings) +123 @ MIL (Looper)
1010p SF (Cain) +136 @ LAD (Kershaw)
1010p SEA (Washburn) +105 vs. LAA (Weaver)

I doubt I'll play that many games tonight, but Washington and San Diego seem like sure things.

Streak for the Cash
Current Streak: 4

This is not me getting tight at 4. I just don't see a good play with an edge out there this afternoon. Plus, I need to give The TMLJ time to catch back up.

Tuesday 4/14 - PM

This was my best afternoon in a while. I didn't lose a baseball pick and went 2-0 in Streak. Woo.

Plays
1005p Oakland +129 2x
Passes: Seattle, Tampa Bay

Seattle seems to be a popular play in the contrarian community tonight. The consensus numbers aren't really there and Silva isn't a very good pitcher (neither is Loux), so I'll just pass and regret it later.

Leans
220p COL (Marquis) +194 @ CHC (Harden)
335p OAK (Anderson) -105 vs. BOS (Wakefield)
405p TB (Sonnastine) -104 vs. NYY (Pettitte)

Not a whole lot of surprises on that list. I've been a bit confounded at how little respect the Rays continue to get (against the Sawx and Yanks, of course), but whatever, I'll take it.

Streak for the Cash
8p NYI, COL, or ATL wins 1st overall pick in NHL Draft
1005p Jack Cust more total bases than David Ortiz
Current Streak: 4

The Islanders, Avalanche, or Thrashers have a 49.9% chance of winning the lottery. However, the prop is for winning the first overall pick. Because of the archaic rules of the lottery, these three teams actually have 73% chance of getting the 1st overall pick. This is the new record holder for "Best. Streak. Pick. Ever."

Until VW or ML (or anyone else, for that matter) tell me I'm wrong, I'm leaning Cust for the nightcap.

Tuesday 4/14 - AM

Well, that was fun while it lasted. A special thank you goes out to MoneyLine for actively jinxing me yesterday. I probably won't sniff double digits again in the game. I'd gladly trade that for a few winning days in baseball, though.

Plays
None. I like Detroit, but the Tigers aren't even really close to being a play.

Leans
705p TB (Garza) -121 vs. NYY (Burnett)
1005p OAK (Eveland) +135 vs. BOS (Matsuzaka)

I looked through the projections of the two opposing pitchers. Other than Dice-K's walk rate being a little higher, are there a lot of differences between the two? It seems like if one is going to be a fade (Dice-K), then shouldn't the other, given their respective teams? Or has Burnett not been lucky enough yet, like Dice-K was last year?

Streak for the Cash
930a M. Safin more aces than L. Hewitt
245p Bayern Munich (win or draw) vs. Barcelona (UEFA Champions League)
Current Streak: 2

Look! A tennis prop I know nothing about. It's good to be back to zero.

Bayern Munich is an overwhelming favorite to win or draw this afternoon (JA 63%). I would play that game if I was back at 13.

In hindsight, I probably should have played Milwaukee last night once it became known that Orlando was sitting their stars. The line jumped to -7, but the Mets game had already started by the time I saw it. Oh well.

Monday 4/13

Washington is a flipping joke. As is Peter King:

If Evan Longoria and Matt Garza are not in the top three vote-getters for MVP and Cy Young this year, I’ll be stunned. Longoria hits good pitches 400 feet. Garza has the Red Sox totally figured out.

Yup, Matt Garza. Flipping idiot.

Plays
1005p Oakland +147 2x

This ought to make it 0-3 on the day. I should have known that first week was beginner's luck.

Leans
105p DET (Porcello) +112 vs. CHW (Danks)

I doubt the Tigers will be all that public, but Porcello > Danks.

Streak for the Cash
710p New York Mets vs. San Diego
Current Streak: 0

This will be pointless by the 3rd inning after Pelfrey gives up 7 runs to the offensive juggernaut that is the San Diego Padres.

Monday 4/13 - AM

Plays
220p Colorado +125 2x
305p Washington +107 2x

I mean, really, who are they trying to kid with the Nats line?

Leans
1005p OAK (Braden) +133 vs. BOS (Lester)

Nothing else really jumps out me, either thinly slicing or by Wagerline. The Fathers might seem like a play at first glance, but the large spread on the line spooked me off of that game.

Streak for the Cash
Current Streak: 12

It is slightly tempting to double down on the Nats. I assume either they or the Tigers will be a play for anyone under 6 or 7 today. Slight lean to Ipswich in the early soccer game, as well.

I'm passing until the Mets tonight. They are the public side, but they opened at -173 and have moved to -201. That works out to a JA probability of 65.6% and I doubt public money pushed the line up twenty-eight cents.

Good luck today.