Record Update - 12 July 2009

This is a few days late, but it didn't really matter because of the All-Star Break. A late week surge pushed me back into the green for the week, which was a nice way to start a four day break.



I'm experimenting with this new color scheme, since orange plays a larger role in the site's new theme. Orange indicates teams that did well last week, blue not so much. I wish a pox on Arizona, Oakland, and Washington's front offices.

Saturday 7/11

Bachelor party all day, so I need to get these in now.

Plays
705p Washington +146 2x
705p Cleveland +119 2x
710p Kansas City +162 2x
810p Arizona -115 2x
810p Atlanta +112 2x
1010p Seattle -101 3x

Streak for the Cash
730p New York vs. Atlanta
1030p Henderson vs. Bisping
12a Lesnar vs. Mir
Current Streak: 8

Assuming I am sober enough to put these in (not likely), I'll be on Henderson and Lesnar for UFC 100, too.

Friday 7/10

I'm having a miserable day. These are straight follows.

Plays
705p Cleveland +130 2x
750p TOR/BAL u10 +106 2x
735p Oakland +152 2x
805p Washington +175 2x

Not even looking at Streak.

Leans 7/10

I'm not complaining too much because I went 3-1 last night, but solid 8th inning from Arizona last night.

Leans
705p PIT (Duke) +150 @ PHL (Blanton)
705p BAL (Berken) -104 vs. TOR (Cecil)
705p CLE (Lee) +140 @ DET (Jackson)
735p OAK (Mazzaro) +152 @ TB (Niemann)
940p ARZ (Haren) -157 vs. FLA (Nolasco)
1010p SEA (Morrow) +110 vs. TEX (Feldman)

Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 6

There wasn't anything remotely close to playing.

Thursday 7/9 - PM

Still looking for feedback hyah, if you have time.

Plays
710p Kansas City +188 2x
840p ATL/COL o9 -116 2x
940p Arizona -108 2x

Who steamed Petit today? Twenty cents is quite the line swing.

Streak for the Cash
710p Kansas City +2.5 vs. Boston
Current Streak: 6

Sure. Loser.

Thursday 7/9 - AM

I can't wait for the All-Star Break.

Plays
205p Cleveland +118 2x

Leans
710p KC (Hochevar) +180 @ BOS (Penny)
840p ATL (Hanson) +115 @ COL (Cook)
940p ARZ (Petit) +109 vs. FLA (Miller)

Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 5

I'm not fooling around with any of the early stuff. I'm waiting to lose my streak on KC +2.5 tonight.

Wednesday 7/8 - PM

This was I wanted to see when I got home from work today.


Plays
705p Cincinnati +139 2x
710p Oakland +167 2x
810p Cleveland +139 2x

Looks pretty normal to me.

Streak for the Cash
Passing.
Current Streak: 5

Honduras +1.5 is the best look, but even it is less than 60%.

Wednesday 7/8 - AM

Well, what do you know. A big WNBA favorite won.

Plays
310p Washington +159 2x

I was surprised that with so many early games, this is the only one I liked.

Leans
705p CIN (Bailey) +143 @ PHL (Lopez)
710p OAK (Cahill) +160 @ BOS (Wakefield)
810p CLE (Laffey) +127 @ CHW (Contreras)

I think Oakland is the only sure look here.

Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 5

I can't find good lines for any of the afternoon options. Cavendish is obviously the favorite at the Tour, but I can't tell if he >50%, let alone higher than that for my streak. DSB says he found -225 at BetUS.

The Cubs/Braves total isn't listed at the moment, so trying to figure the correct side on the baseball prop is failing.

And Argentinian soccer odds are kind of hard to come by. I think because Rosario Central is pk and +0.5 -131 at Pinnacle, that means RC w/d is right, but unless someone confirms that, I'll pass.

Tuesday 7/7

Me, this morning:

Is the market really reacting that wildly to the 22-1 beatdown last night?

JA Happ, 2009: 5-0, 2.96 ERA

Or it could be that. One or the other. Thanks to the returning Jonny for relaying that information to me. As always when it comes to anything baseball related, I'm an idiot.

Plays
705p Cincinnati +129 2x
810p Cleveland +147 3x
840p Washington +130 3x
940p SD/ARZ o9 +102 2x
1010p Baltimore +134 2x

Streak for the Cash
1005p Sacramento vs. Chicago
Current Streak: 5

I don't even want to talk about this.

Leans 7/7

Is the market really reacting that wildly to the 22-1 beatdown last night?

The books don't want any part of Bruce Chen against Verlander. Surprising.

Leans
805p ATL (Vazquez) -104 vs. CHC (Dempster)
810p CLE (Sowers) +150 @ CHW (Buehrle)
840p WAS (Zimmermann) +138 @ COL (Hammel)
1010p BAL (Guthrie) +129 @ SEA (Bedard)

Too many road teams.

Streak for the Cash
830a Astanta vs. Any Other Team
245p St. Patrick's/Cork u2.5 goals
Current Streak: 4

Not sure how shaded that line is (LANCE!!!111!1!!), but if it's fair, it's a solid early pick. The under is definitely the play in the soccer match later.

Monday 7/6

You win, Wagerline.

Plays
705p Kansas City +127 3x
805p PIT/HOU o9 +100 2x
840p Washington +188 2x
940p SD/ARZ o10 -116 3x

That SD/ARZ total is assuming Matchbook opens a 10.5 market. I'd rather not lay -117 at o10. I need to get better at assessing baseball line movement, because that was at o10 ev this morning.

UPDATE: I changed my mind on the 10 vs. 10.5. I figured it would end up at -102 once MB opened the 10.5 market. o10 -116 is slightly better mathematically.

Streak for the Cash
705p Philadelphia vs. Cincinnati
Current Streak: 2

Where the Value Lies - Week 14

The Royals and Tigers are new additions to this week's lists. The Nats, Dbacks, and Tribe are all going to be good options for the forseeable future. I feel like going forward, fading the Tigers and Rangers should be advisable, as well, just based on what I read on the internet.

These numbers are for games through Saturday. July 4th.

Overrated
1. Tigers +5.2
2. Giants +5.1
3. Astros +4.7
4. Brewers +4.0
5. Rangers +3.7

Underrated
1. Nationals -10.4
2. Rays -7.8
3. Indians -6.3
4. Diamondbacks -5.8
5. Royals -3.2

I'm adding a new feature this week, that will be expanded going forward. For now, I am going to add the teams that had the largest delta-D3 over the last week. As I save more data, I'll add bi-weekly and monthly deltas as well.

Best Delta-D3 LW
1. Astros +1.8
2. Marlins +1.6
3. Yankees +1.5

Worst Delta-D3 LW
1. Giants -1.5
2. Blue Jays -1.4
3. Red Sox -1.0

I'm not sure these weekly numbers are going to have much value, because the top teams and bottom teams will have likely played each other and because people's opinions won't change a whole lot over the course of a week. Going forward, I expect the bi-weekly and monthly numbers to have a lot more value from a gambling perspective.

Leans 7/6

My guesses were way off of what Wagerline is showing this morning. The only sure play is Kansas City tonight. Otherwise, I'll need to re-examine things when I get home. Oakland and Washington have large Wagerline splits, but I'm struggling to see how those lines are shaded, even though they are two of my favorite teams to play.

Streak for the Cash
1p Kalmar FF (win or draw) vs. Malmo FF
Current Streak: 1

I guess the sports books enjoy paying out 2.5-to-1 a helluva lot more than 28.5% of the time on WNBA games. What is that, like the third time we've lost on a favorite better than -250?