Record Update - 5 July 2009

This week didn't feature any particularly rough days, but there wasn't a good day to be had either, except Saturday.



No teams even really stood out as being particularly bad or good. It was a boring, losing week.

Sunday 7/5

I wish I was still asleep. My 22 year old self is heckling me for getting up at 9am every weekend.

Plays
135p Washington +132 2x
335p Baltimore +163 2x
405p San Diego +150 2x

Streak for the Cash
930p Los Angeles vs. Phoenix
Current Streak: 6

Tiger to win is -165/+145 at 5Dimes. I think that is fair, but hopefully The Saw or ML will confirm. If it is, I'm passing until the Sparks (that's Los Angeles' WNBA team - I looked it up, too) late.

Saturday 7/4

This card isn't as exciting as I thought it would be.

Plays
105p TOR/NYY o9 +103 2x
410p San Diego +129 2x
810p Arizona +175 2x
905p Baltimore +138 2x

Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 6

There aren't any good options for a streak of W3, let alone W6. Needs more WNBA.

Friday 7/3

Looks like another stressful weekend upcoming.

Plays
610p Pittsburgh +153 2x
635p Washington +116 2x
710p Cincinnati +111 2x
710p Seattle +113 2x
810p Arizona +126 2x
1005p San Diego +134 2x
1005p Baltimore +138 2x

Streak for the Cash
8p San Antonio vs. Chicago
Current Streak: 6

I played the Cubs this afternoon, so the streak is pending.

Real Salt Lake is -160 to win. That would be right on the borderline for a play at 10p at W6, if the WNBA game is over. Obviously, when the Cubs or Silver Stars lose, it's a must play.

Thursday 7/2 - PM

Well, at least SftC went well this afternoon.

Plays
810p Kansas City +131 2x
1010p Baltimore +148 2x

It doesn't appear that the betting public was all that impressed with Happ's last start.

Streak for the Cash
730p New York vs. Detroit
Current Streak: 3

Thursday 7/2 - AM

I guess I missed it when he started a game earlier this year for the Royals, but I had no idea Bruce Chen was still in baseball.

Plays
1235p ARZ/CIN o8.5 -102 2x
Pass: Pirates

This seems marginal. It's based solely off consensus numbers. I think the Maholm play might be better, but it's too early in the morning to trust instincts.

Leans
710p ATL (Vazquez) -138 vs. PHL (Happ)
1005p BAL (Guthrie) +149 @ LAA (Lackey)

Streak for the Cash
8a Dementieva/Williams o18.5 games
1120a Venus Williams wins by 2-0
245p FC Zestaponi (win or draw)
Current Streak: 3

Venus is a surprising -160 to win 2-0 in the second tennis match. FC Zestaponi w/d is about 61% later in the afternoon, too, so it seems like a straightforward plan today.

Wednesday 7/1 - PM

Just one for tonight. I'm not in the mood to think very hard.

Plays
705p Cleveland -116 2x

Streak for the Cash
10p Calgary vs. Montreal
Current Streak: 0

Man, I can't wait for football season.

Wednesday 7/1 - AM

I got caught off guard and didn't expect there to be afternoon games today. Whoops.

Plays
135p Baltimore +137 2x
335p Oakland +118 2x

Leans
710p ARZ (Garland) +147 @ CIN (Cueto)
710p ATL (Jurrjens) -104 vs. PHL (Hamels)
705p CLE (Sowers) -118 vs. CHW (Contreras)

Seattle and Colorado have flashy Wagerline numbers, but neither of them particularly excite me this morning.

Streak for the Cash
10a Hewitt/Roddick 3 or 5 sets
Current Streak: 1

I've got the set prop around 62% to win. Start w/d in the afternoon.

Did the Streakmaster screw up yesterday? The Norwegian soccer game was definitely available when I posted, but obviously was taken down by the afternoon, replaced by an internation friendly the WSOP HORSE winner. Not that it matters.

Tuesday 6/30

Thanks to VW for catching me being a groggy idiot this morning.

Plays
705p Baltimore +115 2x
710p Washington +136 2x
710p Atlanta -118 2x
1010p Oakland +102 2x

Streak for the Cash
7p Atlanta vs. Minnesota
Current Streak: 0

I told you I'd be blowing my streak on a WNBA game.

Leans 6/30

Geez, solid night for everyone last night.

Leans
705p CLE (Lee) -190 vs. CHW (Richard)
705p BAL (Hill) +116 vs. BOS (Smoltz)
710p ARZ (Haren) -136@ CIN (Arroyo)
710p ATL (Lowe) -126 vs. PHL (Blanton)
1010p OAK (Morrow) +107 vs. DET (Galarraga)

I'm really not a fan of potentially laying that much chalk.

Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 7

Anyone have any idea how much juice a game is worth in tennis O/Us? I'm really tempted to play the Williams/Azarenka over. Sportingbet.com has the O/U set at 22 (-120/-120). Using Pinny's 21.5 (-119/+103) line as a guide, does that mean that each half game is worth roughly 2.5%, with some obvious adjustments as you get farther away from the true line? At best, that makes o19.5 somewhere around 62-65% to win, which seems to be a borderline play at 7. Since it's 530a and I don't have a lot of confidence in my math, I think this is a pass.

Start w/d isn't a terrible option in the afternoon, either, if your streak is under 5 or so.

Where the Value Lies - Week 13

Take these thoughts with a grain of salt, because I've never been through an entire baseball schedule. By the end of this week, we'll be just about halfway through baseball season. At some point, these third order record assessments will become less valuable. For example, the Nationals have been sitting right around -10 wins vs. their expected record for about 2.5 weeks. That means, recently, they've been playing at the level of their expected record (~43%). The market should react to their increased level of play.

I would assume that going forward, looking at something like monthly changes would be better at identifying teams that currently underrated in the market. Unfortunately, I didn't think about this until recently, so I haven't been saving the data. So, starting at the end of July, I'll start looking both at season-long third order differences and change in third order record over four weeks.

I don't know if it will illuminate anything more, because I'm not sure these posts have been particularly informing to begin with, but it's not like there is anything else for me to blog about this summer.

These third order differences are through games of Sunday, June 28th.

Underrated
1. Nationals -9.9
2. Rays -7.2
3. Indians -6.2
4. Diamondbacks -4.9
5. Mets -2.8

Overrated
1. Giants +6.6
2. Brewers +5.0
3. Tigers +4.5
4. Rangers +3.7
5. Reds +3.5
5. Dodgers +3.5

I think I'm more interested in fading the overrated teams than playing the underrated teams. The underperformance of their third order records just hasn't translated into plays on the Rays or Mets.

Monday 6/29

Plays
705p Cleveland +100 2x
705p Baltimore +152 2x
1005p Oakland +102 2x
Pass: Colorado

On the surface, the Rockies seemed like a play to me, especially with Ubaldo on the mound, but I can't wrap my head around a team that's won 19 of 22 being all that contrarian, even if they are playing the best team in the National League.

Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 7

All of the baseball options are garbage. Needs more WNBA.

Leans 6/29

I completely forgot to write the "Where the Value Lies" and "Record Update" posts last night. I'm sure that is a huge disappointment to everyone. In any case, I updated the record on the sidebar and will write those up tonight after work.

Leans
705p PIT (Duke) +100 vs. CHC (Harden)
705p CLE (Pavano) -101 vs. CHW (Floyd)
705p BAL (Berken) +147 vs. BOS (Lester)
1005p OAK (Anderson) +114 vs. DET (Porcello)
1010p COL (Jimenez) +107 @ LAD (Wolf)

Colorado can still be contrarian when they play the Dodgers, right?

Streak for the Cash
Passing
Current Streak: 7

I don't think you can argue against Karlovic, Safina, or Roddick if you are at a lower streak. You'd probably want to go with Karlovic then Roddick, due to time and some contrarian considerations. At W7, I'm going to tighten up a little bit more than usual. Which only means that I'll lose on a -250 WNBA game instead of a -150 Wimbledon matchup.