It's NIT Tuesday

Because I am such a huuuuuuge fan of Penn State basketball, I'm heading up to the Garden tonight directly after work to watch my first game of the year in the NIT Semifinals.

Depending on the outcome of tonight's games, these may be my final basketball wagers of the year.

Plays
7p San Diego State +1 -101 2x
920p Notre Dame/Penn State U137.5 +124 2x
920p Notre Dame ML -172 3x to win 1.75x

The SDSU game is a legit contrarian play. The only thing anyone remembers about those two teams is that Baylor made it to the Big XII semis.

For the total, it is currently at 139.5 at Pinny with a 62/38 split on the over at Wagerline. The under appears to be slightly contrarian and undervalued. Are two points really worth over a quarter in juice?

The Notre Dame moneyline bet is me hedging my happiness. I'd be awful disappointed if I screwed up my schedule to see Penn State lose when I could have done the same thing from my couch.

Streak for the Cash isn't working. New game starts tomorrow anyway. I ended with a streak a three. Woo.

Good luck tonight.

Wednesday 3/25

Don't get old. Your knees will thank you.

Plays
9p San Diego State -3.5 -105 3x
10p Oregon State +3.5 +101 2x

One of these has to hit eventually, right? Why do I feel like I'm betting on black after 12 reds have hit in a row?

Streak for the Cash
7p Notre Dame vs. Kentucky (NIT)
9p SDSU vs. St Marys (NIT)
Current Streak: 4

I know UK was a lean this morning, but the line has moved a point since then. Obviously on SDSU later, if I can. Otherwise, I'll play the Suns.

Leans 3/25

When Notre Dame and Penn State end up in the NIT Final Four and Syracuse and Villanova head to Detroit, I'm just going to laugh. Worst. March. Ever.

Leans
7p UK +2.5 @ ND
9p SDSU -3.5 vs. St. Mary's
10p Ore St +3.5 vs. Stanford

I'm looking forward to continuing the losing streak tonight with these garbage teams. SDSU stuck out at me the most.

Streak for the Cash
230p SC Rhinedorf Altach (win or draw) vs. Kapfenberg SV (Austrian Bundesliga)
Current Streak: 2

I have no idea why typing Bundesliga causes me so much amusement in the morning.

Tuseday 3/24 - The Return of Trisomy 21

I love Penn State. It's literally my favorite place to be and where I hope to raise a family someday. I have absolutely nothing negative to say about it and am a rabid fan of all of the university's sports teams.

But that's not going to stop me from making fun of homers on Penn State's Scout Premium Message Board about tonight's PSU/UF basketball game where Penn State is an 11 point dog.

Just suprised [sic] the number is that high considering Florida has done nothing this year. Jagd, one quality OCC win and played in a terrible conference.

Penn State Top OOC games by KPom:

L vs. (50) Temple
L vs. (71) URI (in Philly)
W @ (94) GaTech
W vs. (140) Mt. St. Mary's
W vs. (168) Sacred Heart

Florida Top OOC games by KPom:

L vs. (12) Syracuse (CBE in KC)
W vs. (15) Washington (CBE in KC)
L @ (39) Fla St
W vs. (80) NC State
W vs. (127) Bradley

And Florida's only quality OOC win (in fact, only quality win the entire season) came on a neutral court against a Washington team that was 2-2 at the time,

Obviously, Washington's record at the time is more relevant than being a 4-seed in the varsity tournament.

The line was said to be down to 9 (dont quote me on that) since I pulled it off the hoops board. They obviously get 3-5 points for being at home. So that makes them a 4 point favorite on a neutral court.

The line opened at 11, is currently 10.5-11 and hasn't dropped below 10.5. Florida would be favored by more than 4 in Happy Valley. Also, sorry for quoting you on that.

Vegas lines are based off how people bet, so yes.

Clearly.

Is Florida even motivated in this game? Coming from a school that has won two football national championships and two basketball national championships in the very recent past, will anyone care about a home NIT game?

I can't tell.

Plays
Florida -11 +109 3x
Pass: Auburn

Do I really need to comment more? Sure! KPom has this game as a 9 point spread, but Cornley (as mentioned previously) and Battle (runner up BigTen POY) are both banged up, accounting for the difference.

Streak for the Cash
9p Penn State/Florida U141.5 Points
Current Streak: 1

More anti-pub chalk for me. UPDATE: Thanks for Vegas pointing out in the comments that the Auburn/Baylor game was actually a prop for most 3-pointers made. I'm not sure if it is my three year old computer or just a coding glitch by ESPN, but I had to do a little searching to find that answer. As always, I'm an idiot.

Also, I'm glad it took me a month of playing to notice there was an article in there. I read good.

Leans 3/24

I'm looking forward to fading the alma mater for the third straight game in the JV tourney.

Leans
7p Auburn -3.5 vs. Baylor
9p Florida -11 vs. PSU

HCA plus a woefully overrated Penn State squad (KPom has it at 9, but Cornley is banged up for Penn State) equals a likely play for me. Auburn, less so.

Streak for Cash
345p Carlisle United (win) vs. Hereford United (English League 1)
Current Streak: 0

Carlisle is -134 at Pinny. I don't even know what a League 1 is.

Revised Sweet 16 log5 Predictions

Leans for Monday: Vermont, Crate, Wich St.

I'll update the record tonight.

Thursday 3/19 - Evening

California is terrible. It was a pretty standard opening session, though. I'm expecting more big time plays in Round 2.

I floated all of these this morning except UCLA and Illinois, so the juice may be different than what is available now. I'm going to have to put some more effort into figuring out the optimum way to work with Matchbook's new policy.

Plays
710p Minnesota +4 +106 2x
725p Akron +13.5 +104 2x
950p UCLA -8 -106 2x
955p Illinois -5 -104 2x
7p New Mexico +5 +105 2x
7p Rhode Island +1 +106 2x

Believe it or not, New Mexico was the closest to a 3x play. If it were the regular season, it definitely would have been. I'm not as comfortable making big plays in the NIT.

Streak for Cash
UPDATE: TheFiancee isn't feeling well, so I will be around a computer
7p Notre Dame vs. New Mexico
950p UCLA larger margin of victory than Illinois
Current Streak: 2

I won't be around a computer tonight, so the only play is UCLA.

Here's to hoping for a good middle.

Friday Afternoon Leans
1215p SFA +11.5 vs. Cuse
1230p NDSU +9.5 vs. Kansas
1230p USU +4.5 vs. Marq
3p ETSU +20 vs. Pitt
3p Cornell +12.5 vs. Mizz
3p WVU -9 vs. Dayton

USU and WVU made the initial list, but after checking consensus numbers quickly, there is almost no chance I play them tomorrow. SFA, NDSU, and ETSU have 3x potential tomorrow.

Good luck the rest of the night.

Wednesday 3/18

Running a little short on time tonight. I don't have anything witty or interesting to say. You know, like normal.

Plays
8p Jacksonville +14.5 +100 2x

Is SIA not showing betting trends for the NIT?

Streak for Cash
7p Providence vs. Miami (FL) (NIT)
10p Anaheim vs. Nashville (NHL)
Current Streak: 1

I actually like the Thunder a bit more as contrarian chalk, but I want to take some Quack later.

Thursday Afternoon Leans
1220p LSU -2 vs. Butler
1230p BYU -2.5 vs. Texas A&M
1225p CS-N +20 vs. Memphis
3p Cal -1.5 vs. UMd

At first glance, that seems like a lot of chalk to eat, but looking at last year's profitable opening weekend, short chalk paid off quite well (7-2 ATS). Of course, as the entire 2008-09 gambling season has shown, past results are not well correlated with future events.

Leans 3/18

There are some horrible CBI and CIT games out there. Who watches that junk?

I took off work Thursday and Friday because I'm a complete degenerate. My plan is to do two posts a day during the tournament, one for the afternoon session and one for the evening. Those posts will also contain leans for the following session. The first of those type of posts will be up tonight.

Leans
7p Duq +8 @ VaTech
7p Provo -2.5 vs. MiaFL
8p Jville +14.5 @ Fla
8p Ill St +6.5 vs. K-State

I'm not nearly as enamored with any of these as I was about the games last night. I may pass the whole card.

Streak for Cash
230p SK Sturm Graz (win or draw) vs. FC Karnten (Austrian Bundesliga)
Current Streak: 0

Obviously, this is a straight line play.

Tuesday 3/17

The NIT kicks off tonight with a couple of decent tilts. I went back and looked at my data from last year and I didn't play a single game in the JV set. Hopefully, contrarianism still works.

Also, Matchbook's new rake policy has gone into effect. Make sure you update your if statements in Excel accordingly.

Plays
8p George Mason +5.5 -101 2x
9p UAB +6 +103 2x
10p New Mexico -7.5 -101 2x
11p Washington State +4 +101 3x

Everything is pretty straightforward here. It amazes me every year how much name recognition matters this late in the season.

Streak for Cash
7p South Carolina vs. Davidson (NIT)
11p St. Mary's vs. Washington State (NIT)
Current Streak: 1

Why is Davidson, a team that lost three games in the Southern Conference and a 3.5 point dog, receiving 70% of streakers' action?

I didn't even get the chance to play the under. Oh well. I'm hoping for a nice middle out west. I'm sure that will happen.

Leans 3/17

I don't remember playing the NIT heavily the last few years, but I think there is value in some of the lines this year. When I'm 1-7 -12x heading into the tournament, everyone can laugh at me.

Leans
7p SoCar -3.5 vs. Davidson
7p Niagara -4 vs. URI
8p Mason +6 @ PSU
9p UAB +5.5 @ ND
10p NMex -8 vs. Neb
11p Wazzu +4.5 @ Marys

With only 13 games on the card, that seems like too many leans and probably too much chalk. UAB and Wazzu are the only sure bets on there.

Streak for Cash
1030a Newry (win or draw) vs. Institute (Irish Premier League)
345p Arsenal/Hull City O3.5 (FA Cup)
Current Streak: 0

I couldn't even find this game at Pinnacle; I had to go to Sportsbook to get some lines. Assuming they know what they are talking about - and it's the Irish Premier League, why wouldn't they - SB gives Newry a 67.8% chance of winning or drawing. I feel like I should have typed that up as drawring just to get the proper English pronunciation. Also, I'm sure there will be no drinking or fighting at this match today.

I threw the other soccer over in at work. Like it really matters with my awful streak.