Week 5 Mumme Poll

I'm participating in the Mumme Poll this year. This week's ballot is a dry run and doesn't actually count. I'm going to post a draft of my ballot on Sunday afternoons to make sure I didn't screw anything up. Monday night, I'll submit my final ballot before the 9p deadline.

Top Five
Florida
Alabama
Texas
Virginia Tech
Boise State

The Rest
Southern Cal
Iowa
Ohio State
LSU
Miami
TCU
Cincinnati

Note: order doesn't matter and I didn't take any time to separate the above into an ordered 1-5 and 6-12. I would imagine the biggest gripe will be leaving undefeated LSU out of the Top 5 while having Boise and VT in. My rationale is that LSU is going to be a double digit dog at home against Florida next week if Tebow plays, and I don't think that would be true for Tech or Boise.

Feel free to tell me where you think I am wrong in the comments.

Saturday 10/3

Some of these prices are different than what is currently available because I put all of these in last night.

12p Syracuse +6.5 +100 5x
12p Minnesota -2.5 -107 3x
12p Duke +16.5 +103 5x
12p Michigan State -3.5 -104 3x
1220p Kentucky +15.5 +103 3x
330p Notre Dame -12.5 +105 3x
745p Tennessee -3 +113 3x

At the least, I can see myself adding on UTEP tonight. We'll see about anything else.

9p UTEP +14.5 -110 3x

Good luck today.

Leans NFL Week 4/CFB Week 5 Revisited

Not much change this week. I'm not excited about laying this much chalk, but all of them look pretty ugly, so it's at least justifiable.

Definite Plays
12p Sparty -3.5 vs. Mich
12p Duke +16.5
12p Cuse +6.5 vs. USF
12p Minny -2.5 vs. Wisky
330p ND -11.5 vs. Wash
745p Tenny -2.5 vs. Auburn

1p CLE +5.5 vs. CIN
1p KC +9 vs. NYG
1p JAX +3 vs. TEN
820p PIT -6.5 vs. SD

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p UMd +12.5 vs. Clem
12p UVa +13 @ UNC
330p BC +3.5 vs. FSU
330p Stan -5 vs. UCLA

1p NE -1 vs. BAL
405p NO -7 vs. NYJ
405p MIA +1 vs. BUF
415p STL +9.5 vs. SF

Borderline Volume Plays
4p UNLV +5.5 @ Nevada
9p UTEP +14 vs. Houston

415p DEN +3 vs. DAL

I really don't see a way around UTEP.

Friday 10/2

Remarkably, I'm passing both the Aggies and the Cardinals. This looks like split action to me on both teams. I certainly don't think there is enough of an edge that the books are shading the line, despite the likely higher volume. Leans coming later tonight. Good luck if you play either.

Thursday 10/1

Well, last night was so easy, let's see how tonight can cockpunch me.

8p UAB +10 +100 3x

There are two reasons to pass this game: Deandre Brown and Damion Fletcher are out tonight and the line pushed down to 9 earlier today but is back up to the open of 10.5 currently. Neither of those was enough to keep me away from this game, though, at least not on a Thursday night.

Wednesday 9/30

I'm surprised this came together the way it did this afternoon.

8p Louisiana Tech -5.5 +100 3x
8p Hawaii/LaTech u55 +107 3x

The total seemed like the right play all day. The side became a play because Hawaii has become more public throughout the afternoon, the line moved toward LaTech, and because it's a weeknight. If I really believe my idea about volume, then I should be pushing what I believe to be small edges on weeknight games. Anyway, good luck tonight.

Leans NFL Week 4/CFB Week 5

I'm not really impressed with either card this week. Tebow getting hurt and LSU getting the attention of the pundits for sucking really screws up my UF -12 play for next week, too.

Definite Plays
9p USU +24 @ BYU (Fri.)
12p Cuse +6.5 vs. USF
1230p Kentucky +16.5 vs. Bama
330p Duke +16.5 vs. VT
330p Sparty -2 vs. Mich

1p JAX +3 vs. TEN
1p KC +9 vs. NYG
1p CLE +5.5 vs. CIN

• Utah State is the gratuitous game I wouldn't play if it were on a Saturday.
• Sparty starting 1-3 and facing an overrated Michigan team seems like a good contrarian spot, especially if Forcier plays.
• The other three college games are pretty much slam dunks, I would think.
• Why are the Bengals giving 5.5 points in any situation?

Borderline Contrarian Plays
745p WVU -17.5 vs. Colo (Thu.)
8p Lville +6.5 vs. Pitt (Fri.)
12p Minny -2.5 vs. Wisky
330p ND -13.5 vs. UW
7p Stan -6 vs. UCLA
730p aTm -1 vs. Arky
730p Tenny -2 vs. Aub

405p NO -7 vs. NYJ
415p DEN +3 vs. OAK
415p STL +9.5 @ SF
820p PIT -6.5 vs. SD

• Louisville is much more likely to be the weeknight Big East representative on the card.
• The rest of those games are chalk that I'm not a fan of, but could be persuaded into playing if the trends are good this week.
• Do any of those NFL games look all that ugly to you?
• I don't care what the consensus sites say, I'm not fading TB and DET this week, with WAS and CHI. Does that make any sense?

Borderline Volume Plays
12p Marsh +2.5 vs. ECU
12p NW +7 @ Pur
12p UMd +13.5 vs. Clem
12p Buff +9.5 vs. CMU
4p UNLV +3.5 @ Nev
9p UTEP +16 vs. Hou

I really don't have much insight for these games other than they looked ugly. On the other hand, I'm not really looking to mix it up in CUSA or the WAC much anymore, either.

Week 5 Line Guesses

Error down marginally this week to 3.41 points off per game. I still had a few big misses. It should have been better, but I was out all day yesterday and scrambled to put it together before the lines came out at 6:45.

• I can't believe I overvalued Colorado by a touchdown.
• Duke has had basically no lines for me to make a reasonable guess.
• I'm consistently overvaluing Northwestern and undervaluing Purdue. Sooner or later (Week 12), I'll get it right.
• I'm not sure why I thought Ohio State was 11 points better than Michigan, though I'm a bit surprised that the margin between the Big Two is down to 4.
• Vandy was a stupid miss. LSU and Ole Miss are roughly the same team and Vandy was favored by 8.5 over Mississippi State when the game was played in Nashville.
• Arkansas was favored by 13.5 in the preseason against Texas A&M. Did the Aggies get good and I somehow missed it? Because I'm pretty sure Arkansas is who we thought they were.