2009 CFB Preview: Texas

The Longhorns are the other obvious national title contender out of the Big XII. They have nobody on their non-conference schedule, unlike Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.



Texas really has a two game season. Beat Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and they are in all likelihood going to Pasadena. I suppose the one thing they could be worried about is a situation similar to last year, where OU and the Pokes go 7-1 along with Texas. OU will probably be higher in the BCS standing because of BYU and Miami.





The Horns have a decent median probability of going undefeated, but 6-1 isn't representing value. There is no value in their win total of ten either.

2009 CFB Preview: Oklahoma

In my opinion, Oklahoma is the second best team in the Big XII. The books are on board as well, with Texas looking like a one point favorite at the Cotton Bowl in October.



The Sooners have a decent non-conference on paper, with BYU, Tulsa, and Miami, but they will be heavy favorites in every game. I'm hoping to actually be on the Sooners against Tulsa. Otherwise, the Sooners' regular season comes down to the Cotton Bowl, most likely.





As you would normally expect with one of the best teams in the country, there is no value here, unless you are really high on the Sooners. The best Vegas line was 7-1 while I was out there. There is nothing there for the total of ten, either.

2009 CFB Preview: Oklahoma State

The Cowboys are going to be loaded this year on offense. Their biggest obstacle is going to be heading to Norman in the last game of the year. I would not be surprised if that game featured two undefeated teams, like 2006 tOSU vs. Michigan... and Oklahoma would be a touchdown favorite.




Otherwise, Oklahoma State will be a slight dog against Texas and favored in every other game. In Week 1, the Pokes get to face Georgia, which I had hoped would be a contrarian spot, but it seems like the cat is out of the bag.





I think Oklahoma State takes the record for biggest dropoff between 10-2 and 12-0, primarily due the game against the Sooners. For their chances of winning the MNC, 50-1 isn't going to cut it, unless a fortune teller on the boardwalk tells you Sam Bradford is going to tear his ACL. Over nine wins is close to having value with the median lines. If you think the Pokes will play above their Vegas median, it definitely has value.

2009 CFB Preview: Nebraska

I didn't run the numbers for Kansas, but judging by the lines, Nebraska is the Vegas favorite for being the Big XII North sacrifice to OU/UT in Jerry's New House.



I think it's also safe to assume they would be the favorite to win the Sun Belt. Nebraska's only probable losses are OU and VT, with a winnable game in Lawrence, which is the only other game they will be a dog. Subjectively, Nebraska has one of the lower standard deviations of teams I've run through, with only 1.4 wins separating E(Worst) and E(Best).





In Vegas, 80-1 was the best price you could get on the Huskers, so it doesn't look like much value there, unless you are really high on them. There is probably a little bit of value in the under for their win total of 8.5, but I doubt it is worth tying money up for the next four months.

2009 CFB Preview: Big XII

Jonny and I were talking about Texas when the win expectancy calculations were being worked out a few weeks ago. The numbers seemed to show that Texas might actually have some value, despite being the fourth team on the board. The Big XII numbers bear that out.



Note that Oklahoma is the favorite to win the Big XII strictly by futures odds. Otherwise, there are no real surprises with Oklahoma State as the third most likely and Kansas and Nebraska battling it out for the North title.



Once getting to the spreads though, Texas is considered a few points better. The schedules are also working against OU, who has to travel to Nebraska and Kansas, while Texas misses the Huskers and gets the Jayhawks in Austin. Nebraska also likely has some futures value, though probably not as much as Texas.



The win expectancies aren't particularly surprising. Texas should have a better win expectation than OU. The rest of the conference falls in line accordingly. A few weeks ago, I'd hinted that I thought Texas would be better than OU and the numbers show it. Oklahoma has to replace a lot on both lines and most squares are only going to be looking at the skill position players they bring back. Bradford has barely been touched the last two years, which has been a huge part of their success. The Sooners are (currently) on my short list of early season fades.