You guessed it, Frank Stallone

Live Betting Live Chat 4/30

2010-04-30T18:30:00.001-04:00

Frank Calls It A Day

2010-03-13T00:15:00.000-05:00

I've been contemplating ending the blog experience for a while now. Some time during last football season, I decided I wanted this to be a place where I could put down all of my crazy ideas and play with numbers to see if I could get better at sports gambling (note: that worked well). I wanted it to be more than a list of my picks and leans. As it stands now, thanks to more responsibility at my real job, I just don't have enough time or energy to do any of the R&D stuff that made me want to have a blog.

I'm not done gambling. I'll still be over in Contrarianville all the time and I'll maintain my record there, plus there is still my twitter account where I can make unfunny comments about games. If for whatever ungodly reason you actually want to follow my picks, I have my own thread pinned to the top of the Picks Forum. I'll continue posting leans in the relevant threads. Sham will host the line guesses for the rest of football season. I'm going to continue doing everything I've always done in terms of preparing for each day/week of gambling. It's just not going to be done here.

There is some decent research in some of the old posts, so I'm not going to ditch the archive. Good luck wagering. I'll be around.

-Adam

2010 Conference Tourney Friday Live Blog

2010-03-12T09:53:00.000-05:00

2010 CT Friday

2010 Conference Tourney Thursday Live Blog

2010-03-11T07:56:00.000-05:00

2010 CT Thursday

MNC Live Blog

2010-01-07T20:25:00.001-05:00

Cville BCS MNC Chat

CFB Week 11 Line Guess Results

2009-11-09T21:15:00.001-05:00

Sham wins, but we both did worse this week, 2.23 vs. 3.67.

Sham: Let's start with this weekday's all too plentiful MAC crapfests. I have to say I'm legitimately surprised by the splits in favor of Buffalo on Tuesday night. Toledo and their horrid defense will get a look on Wednesday. The cream of the MAC Conference (Fake Miami and Crakron) will get looks later in the week as well. Thoughts about any potential plays during the week?

am19psu: Wow, I totally forgot about this. My real life needs to calm down.

My first thought about the weeknight games are: does the MAC really think they are getting that much more exposure by scheduling all of these weeknight games?

I guess Fake Miami and their 1-9 record will get my attention the most this week. I'm not really excited about any of them to be totally honest. I was looking at the volume of these games at Wagerline the last few weeks and it is well below average.

Both Big East games look unplayable as well.

S: The almost automatic Houston opponent lean is led this week by the UCF Knights. This time instead of being steamed down, Houston has actually gone up, I'm trying not to look too much into that.

19: Just what my life needs, more George O'Leary. That was one of those lines that I completely screwed up this week. Looking into it a bit further, the Knights really aren't bad for a CUSA team. They were in the game in both their league losses and looked semi-respectable against Texas for a half.

Going to another conference we rarely bet on, I was surprised by the Troy/Arky line. My guess was absurdly wrong, but I didn't realize any team in the Sun Belt was three touchdowns better than winless Eastern Michigan. I really need to pay better attention to the small conferences. Think the Hogs will attract enough action for a play?

S: I'm not sure how much action this game will attract but on the surface I like Troy in this one. It fits perfectly with square circular reasoning as Florida beat Troy 56-6 at home and Arkansas played Florida tough on the road before falling 23-20. I'm sure you'll see squares cite these two scores as justification for a play on the Razorbacks who by their estimates is about 47 points better than Troy, 14.5 should be no problem.

Let's focus on a team that is actually good, TCU. Will Utah +17 entice the casual bettor?

19: Yeah, Sun Belt team only getting two TDs on the road against an ESS-EE-SEE school ought to do the trick, let alone the transitive property you mentioned.

It's not often you see #4 -17.5 vs. #16 in the MWC. TCU is pretty clearly the side if there is one, but the way the Frogs have been rolling teams the last four weeks, I'm not sure Utes will be all that public.

This card generally sucks. Nothing else really jumps out at me except Nebraska only -4 against Kansas. Reesing has looked like garbage the last few weeks, but it's not like Nebraska's offense has been lighting it up either. Can you bring yourself to fade the Huskers?

S: I've done it before this year with Arky St (didn't work out so well). I was surprised to see the line this low and I'm legitimately worried about a letdown after the defense single-handedly defeated OU. It's a situation where I would normally be all over KU but I'll take a wait-and-see approach.

Any chance Penn St sneaks onto your card with so few options this week?

19: I doubt it. I'm already disappointed in this team. I don't need to be a drag on everyone in State College if they don't cover the three TDs.

I just looked over at Wagerline. Wow, there is a lot of ACC nonsense this week, isn't there?

S: That's for sure. Duke looks almost automatic against the Ramblin' Wreck. The continuous fading of Real Miami will most likely continue as well. NC St and Virginia will get a looks as well.

I was surprised by USC opening up as a double-digit fave against Stanford. You had other thoughts, care to elaborate?

19: I couldn't do math in my head after work yesterday? I added an extra four points of HFA to that line. Was it really that surprising though? Stanford closed at +6.5 at home against Oregon, flip that around to +13.5-14.5 on the road and Oregon was a three point dog to USC at home. Obviously some adjustment was necessary, since both teams are closer to USC in current power rankings, but it was clearly a double digit game to me. I just wish Stanford would have lost to Oregon. I don't think we're going to get much of a chance to play it, especially after Barkley's stinker on Saturday. It looks like you adjusted it too far and I didn't go quite far enough.

Last one, and I'll leave the commentary to you: how much of a dog does Iowa open as if Stanzi healthy?

S: I believe a healthy Stanzi puts Iowa at +10.5. Wow, just looked up this line and it has moved from the opener of 13.5 to 17.

OU is on my radar, but that line is trending upwards and I wouldn't be surprised to see it go past 21. Wake was a lean before Ponder went down with his season-ending injury. Notre Dame appears playable against a Top 10 Pitt team (didn't feel right typing that). ISU intrigues me as well, for whatever reason. Yeah, this card blows.

19: I would rather self castrate with a rusty spoon than back Jimmy Heisman. Until next week.

Week 10 Mumme Poll Draft

2009-11-08T20:51:00.002-05:00

Top Five
Florida
Alabama
Texas
TCU
Cincinnati

Next Seven
Boise State
Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh
LSU
Ohio State
USC
Oregon

I think the Top 7 were fairly easy to place. I guess Pitt is a legit Top 12 team now. Watch them lay an egg to Jimmy Heisman this week. LSU, Ohio State, USC, Oregon round out the tail end of my ballot because they would be favored over any team behind them. Please don't give me Houston or Utah. Houston was a one point favorite over Tulsa and TCU opened at -17.5 over Utah. Who else can you argue to put in? Miami sucks. Iowa really sucks. Penn State really really sucks against decent teams. Maybe Arizona, but they lost to Iowa. Go Frogs.

CFB Week 11 Line Guesses

2009-11-08T20:02:00.000-05:00

As usual, commentary tomorrow.

Sunday 11/8

2009-11-08T08:32:00.005-05:00

I'm probably getting too cute with this card today. I'm sure when neither total covers, I'll be in a perfectly logical state of mind to play the Spartans tonight.

1p HOU/IND u49 +110 3x
1p Washington +9 -107 3x
1p Tampa Bay +9.5 +101 3x
1p MIA/NE u46.5 +104 3x

I won't be playing anything at 4 o'clock, however the SNF under and SJSU might be on tap for the late night. Good luck.

---------------------

This is a good way to ruin a great week.

8p San Jose State +13.5 +103 5x
820p DAL/PHL u49 +108 3x

Good luck.

Saturday 11/7

2009-11-07T09:44:00.004-05:00

Headed out to watch The Most Boring Football Game Ever brought to you by the Big Ten^TM. Here is everything today. This has 2-6 written all over it.

12p Virginia +13.5 +104 3x
12p Purdue +6 +103 3x
130p Colorado +3 +101 3x
330p Iowa State +7 +107 3x
330p Stanford +7 +103 5x
730p Tulsa +1.5 +103 3x
8p Nebraska +4 +113 5x
8p Arizona State +10 +103 3x

My life feels incomplete without Juice or Paulus. Good luck.

Leans NFL Week 9/CFB Week 10 Revisited

2009-11-06T18:37:00.000-05:00

Definite Plays
12p Pur +6 @ Mich
12p UVa +13.5 @ Miami
130p Colo +3 vs. aTm
330p Stan +7 vs. Ore
330p Iowa St +7.5 vs. Okie St
730p Tulsa +1 vs. Hou
8p Neb +4 vs. OU
8p Ariz St +10 vs. USC
8p SJSU +13.5 vs. Nevada (Sun.)

1p WAS +10 @ ATL
1p TB +9.5 vs. GB

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Ill +7 @ Minny
12p Cuse +21 @ Pitt
12p Wyo +13 vs. BYU

835p DEN +3 vs. PIT (Mon.)

Borderline Volume Plays
1p UMd +6.5 @ NCSU
2p Baylor +14 @ Mizzou
4p SDSU +24.5 vs. TCU

Friday 11/6

2009-11-06T16:53:00.001-05:00

I floated this three hours ago then took a nap. There are much, much better prices available now.

8p Boise/LaTech u50 +110 3x

I'll throw up some leans later. Good luck.

Leans NFL Week 9/CFB Week 10

2009-11-03T19:03:00.003-05:00

Lots of weird line movement this week on the college side. I'm going to need to re-evaluate these much more closely later in the week. In the NFL, the card looks light again. Two to three plays a week was what I was shooting for at the beginning of the season, and it's worked out fairly well so far, except for Week Freaking Seven.

Definite Plays
8p LaTech +21 vs. Boise (Fri.)
12p Cuse +21.5 @ Pitt
12p Ill +6.5 @ Minny
330p Iowa St +7.5 vs. Okie St
330p Stan +6.5 vs. Ore
8p Neb +5.5 vs. OU

1p WAS +10 @ ATL
1p TB +10 vs. GB

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Purdue +6 @ Mich
1230p K-St +2.5 vs. Kansas
130p Colo +3 vs. aTm
8p Ariz St +10 vs. USC

Borderline Volume Plays
2p Wyo +13 vs. BYU
4p SDSU +24.5 vs. TCU
8p SJSU +14 vs. Nev (Sun.)

I expect a few games to slide off this list and a few to get added by Friday. The line movement is such a mind flip.

CFB Week 10 Line Guess Results

2009-11-02T20:21:00.006-05:00

Sham wins again, 2.13 to 3.13.

am19psu: Any thoughts on this week's lines, other than the amount of money we are going to lose on Stanford?

Sham: That game already has big play written all over it, line is definitely set to induce a play on the Trojan-slaying Ducks. It will be interesting to see how USC responds to being dominated for the first time in ages. Respect accrued from previous seasons seems to be gone as well seeing that USC is only -10.5 against ASU.

19: I'm not really all that surprised by the USC line. It's been obvious the last three weeks that this is not the same USC team of the last 7 years. Now the bookmakers have decided to adjust accordingly.

The short line that did surprise me was Houston. We touched on it last week a little bit, but the books (and apparently sharps) have zero respect for Houston versus the rest of C-USA, even with Kinne questionable after getting concussed against SMU.

S: Line was a surprise to me as well. Touching on the Houston/USM game for a bit. I feel bad for those who got down on USM +6.5 and don't have a local who jacks up his lines, in this case 7.5 (I'm trying to get everyone to hate me).

Getting to a non-BCS team that doesn't get their lines steamed every game, The Saw's favorite team, TCU. I've gone against them once this year when they played Clemson, but this week SDSU will get a look.

19: Count me on the TCU bandwagon, too. I mean, they're clearly not the best team in the country because of their talent deficit, but if you were a fan of say, I don't know, Penn State, would you want to face them in a BCS bowl?

In terms of this week's game, I'm not sure that game will have enough of a handle for me to play it, but it's obviously worth watching, especially considering the way TCU has destroyed the competition the last few weeks.

Let's get back to the BCS conferences. Earlier this season, the books put UF -10 @ LSU. We speculated on Saturday that Bama is 3-4 points worse than UF on a neutral field. You nailed the line, so has LSU gone up in your eyes, Bama/Florida dropped or a little of both?

S: I think the way LSU shut down a dynamic Pelican attack this past Saturday, limiting them to less than 3.8 ypp raises their profile in the eyes of many. Seriously though, I think LSU has shown a little improvement but people now have concerns over Bama, specifically their QB play. Roll Tide hasn't had a dominant victory since September against Arkansas. I think it's a little overblown and presents a decent look for Bama this week. As for Florida, I think their perception has dropped as well but they're still going to be favored over anyone on a neutral field.

Big game in my neck of the woods is OU -5.5 at Nebraska. Can I get your non-biased thoughts on this?

19: If Nebraska had a competent quarterback, they could be one of the best teams in the country. I watched maybe 10 plays in the game against Baylor Saturday, but one of them was an awful, telegraphed pick six from Lee. I hope Green starts for them on Saturday.

In terms of betting, I imagine if there is going to be a public side, it will be OU. Their losses were to BYU, Tha U, and UT, versus VT, TTech, and Iowa State for Nebraska. Plus, I have to think the perception of the Big 12 North is complete garbage. Is that what you were thinking?

S: *Green started last week for Lee, either way both are sub-standard

Exactly, add to the fact that it's the Saturday night game on ABC (along with USC/ASU) and I think the public sides with Oklahoma. Speaking of high-profile primetime games, it looks as though we'll be on the other side of coaching genius Chris Ault on Sunday night.

19: The Spartans are going to be one the most anti-public sides at Wagerline this week. Hopefully, the volume is low and we can pass it. Or, I can just donk off some late night units like I did on Arizona State two weeks ago.

Which QB are you looking forward to backing least on Saturday: Juice +6.5 or Paulus +21?

S: Ugh, don't make me choose. It's looking like my least favorite Duke guard turned Cuse QB will get the nod over Juice. Although in a perfect world both lines would get steamed and I wouldn't have to play either one.

There's not too much on the weekday docket except for La Tech, maybe a total will work its way in. I'm not even sure I could fade Temple even though they are facing a wretched Fake Miami squad.

19: How dare you, sir! Rules of Contrarianville implicitly state that fading Temple is strictly prohibited. Seriously, though, I think LaTech will end up being a play and I'll end up wasting a Friday night watching that garbage.

For the other "big" matchup of the weekend, I don't see much of an angle in the tOSU/PSU game. The under will probably be public, but I doubt we'll play a Saturday afternoon total.

Looking through the rest of the BCS lines, not a whole lot jumps out at me. Is the public aware Reesing got benched last week? Will Michigan be public after losing to Juice? Is anyone respecting Duke yet? Oregon State vs. Cal?

S: There's not much in terms of BCS Conference action. I've cooled off Wake against GT and Rizo vs Wazzu but those will be revisited later in the week. I like Clemson as a chalk look against an all offense no defense F$U squad. Any parting thoughts for the week?

19: That game seemed like a pass to me. The Dabos have been on a roll since losing to Maryland a few weeks back.

Parting thought: Stanford is a large play or a max play for you? I'm leaning large right now. If the game was on Thursday night or Saturday night, it would be a max.

S: Right now it stands as a large play, I don't see it going to a max.

19: At least our cards will somewhat small for another week. That is, until you get ambitious on Sunday morning again. Good luck this week.

CFB Week 10 Line Guesses

2009-11-01T20:00:00.000-05:00

Here are the guesses. Commentary tomorrow.

Week 9 Mumme Poll Draft

2009-11-01T16:31:00.002-05:00

Top Five
Alabama
Florida
Texas
TCU
Cincinnati

Next Seven
Oregon
Boise State
Iowa
Georgia Tech
LSU
Penn State
Pitt

Putting Pitt in the Top 12 bothers me, because both Ohio State and USC would be favored over them, but at this point I am valuing having one loss to NC State over having two losses to USC/Purdue or Washington/Oregon.

Sunday 11/1

2009-11-01T11:18:00.005-05:00

There is nothing I really like about the NFL.

1p Buffalo +3.5 -103 3x
1p SF/IND u44.5 +106 3x
415p Carolina +9 +112 3x

Saturday 10/31

2009-10-31T10:16:00.008-04:00

My apathy towards this season is growing.

12p Syracuse +15 +100 5x
1p Southern Mississippi +6.5 +101 3x
330p Wake Forest +6.5 +104 3x
330p Arizona State +6.5 -101 3x
330p Illinois +7 -101 3x
730p Vanderbilt +11.5 +102 3x

Good luck.

------

Really glad I didn't make Vandy a large play like I considered.

Friday 10/30

2009-10-30T18:51:00.003-04:00

I waited too long on this game and got a poor price.

8p South Florida +3 -110 3x

Plays for tomorrow will be Cuse, SoMiss, Wake, Rizo St, Juice, and Vandy. No need for a whole post for that. Good luck.

Leans NFL Week 8/CFB Week 9

2009-10-27T19:11:00.003-04:00

I'd like to just put a zero up for this post. At least the NFL looks relatively painless this week.

Definite Plays
8p USF +3 vs. WVU (Fri.)
12p Cuse +14.5 vs. Cincy
12p NCSU +9.5 @ FSU
1p SoMiss +6.5 @ Hou
330p Wake +7.5 vs. Miami
330p Ariz St +6.5 vs. Cal
330p Ill +7 vs. UM
730p Vandy +11.5 vs. GT

All of these college plays may be too aggressive. I'm obviously going to investigate further throughout the week.
I'll be glad to have Greg Paulus and Juice Williams back in my life Saturday. I missed you guys.
I like fading overrated Florida teams. Unfortunately, that only applies to two of the three this week.
If Wagerline's numbers are to be believed, the SoMiss/Hou is going to take in an absurd amount of action for a C-USA game.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
1220p Auburn +3.5 vs. Ole Miss
1230p Baylor +13.5 vs. Neb
130p Colo +3.5 vs. Mizzou
330p Fla -15 vs. UGa

1p BUF +3.5 vs. HOU
415p GB -3 vs. MIN
415p CAR +10 @ ARZ

I initially thought that the Auburn/Ole Miss game would be a pass, but I forgot that Ole Miss has a pro style, SEC quarterback.
Did the public miss Nebraska losing to Texas Tech and Iowa State the last two weeks?
I actually like Florida as a side this week, which means I should pass.
None of that NFL garbage looks appealing, though I'm sure some of it will spill over to make my Sunday miserable.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
330p CMU +5 @ BC
8p Minny +3.5 vs. Sparty

Not that anyone has noticed, but the Chips are a pretty good football team this year.
I was surprised to see the Minny line still posted after Decker's injury announcement today. I can't wait to back a completely neutered Gopher team.

Tuesday 10/27

2009-10-27T18:51:00.002-04:00

When I woke up this morning and checked last night's score, I thought there wouldn't be anything I would want to do less today than update my record.

8p Memphis +5 +104 3x

Then this happened. Good luck.

CFB Week 9 Line Guess Results

2009-10-26T20:50:00.005-04:00

Sham won again, but I pulled the margin closer, 2.53 to 3.03. Improvement is nice. Comments below.

am19psu: Clearly, I was on crack when I came up with the UNC/VT line. After putting up lines too large the last few weeks, I overadjusted this week on that game and the Indy/Iowa game. Any games you're pissed at yourself for? I mean, other than gambling at all on Sunday.

Sham: I did most my line guesses during halftime of the early games. Needless to say I was a bit upset and didn't put too much care into my guesses this week. I'm not really pissed about any of my guesses except for maybe Wyo/Utah and ULM/Troy just because I was so far off. A line that I found odd was Tulsa -17. I really didn't expect Tulsa to be that high, I see you believed the same.

19: I know Houston beat SMU by three touchdowns, but it wasn't that much higher than the spread. Are the books really implying that Tulsa is a point better Houston? It's not like GJ Kinne is in any way good.

In a similar vein, I guess the books have been impressed with the Beavers the last two weeks or unimpressed with UCLA. I just took the difference of their Stanford lines in Week 6 (+2, home) and Week 4 (+5, road) respectively and managed to be off by ten freaking points.

Sham: Did some checking and Bo Levi left the game early with a dislocated shoulder against Houston and is questionable for this week's game against Tulsa, that explains it.

I looked at Beavs & Bruins recent lines with UCLA being +9.5 against Arizona last week on the road. Now Arizona > Oregon St, but with Oregon State's close game against USC and UCLA not covering the number last week against Arizona I can see justification for it even though it does seem high.

Getting back to C-USA, Southern Miss is already down to +6.5 against Houston. Interesting, but not surprising.

19: I'm looking forward to potentially wagering on a quarterback named Martevious. It's not like sharps haven't been fading Houston every week (ref. ML).

Do you think we will end up on Florida Saturday in the TWLOCP (again, for some of us) and with Georgia's secondary, is this the week they finally look better than feces?

Sham: Georgia is more of a name than Arkansas and Mississippi State so it is a definite possibility given Florida has only been dominant against Troy and the first quarter against Kentucky. I'm looking forward to Tulane/LSU in a sadistic sort of way. I can't wait to see the Pelican offense march into Baton Rouge.

19: I don't think we'll be on the Pelican, but it was nice of Vegas to set a line that didn't make me immediately nauseous. Staying in the SEC, I guess we should thank Florida for keeping it somewhat close against Miss State. Otherwise, we'd probably be on them against Kentucky, after beating Auburn two weeks ago. Speaking of which, I think we'll both be happy to pass the Ole Miss/Auburn interception fest.

Sham: Interception fest? You must be confusing pro-style QB Jevan Snead and spread-option extraordinaire Chris Todd with some other mediocre QBs. Speaking of turnovers, Nebraska is -13.5 at Baylor. 4 points better than Okie St was last week? That's good to know because I want no part of either team right now.

19: I still don't think Nebraska is that bad. They're unlikely to replicate eight turnovers again and they outgained Texas Tech. Are they a possible Top 12 team like I thought two weeks ago? Doubtful, but it's not like they are garbage either.

Any chance we're on the Pokes this week? I'd like to fade Texas, but I get the feeling I'm not the only one with that opinion.

Sham: Pokes still look to be a sexy team plus the line isn't gross. I can see public rationale for taking Okie St +10 at home against a Texas team who hasn't done much this year (see 2-4-1 record ATS). One game that has definite written all over it is 'Cuse +15 versus Cincy. An odd game I'm interested in is Wazzu/ND, I'm sure Jimmy Heisman will have to engineer a comeback over another quality foe.

19: Yeah, I don't see any way around Cuse. I didn't need those five units anyway.

I wish the books would treat the Rams/Browns/Bucs like they've treated Wazzu the last two years. At least we never get involved with their games. I didn't look at any Heisman press this week. Is Jimmy H still considered a Top 3 contender? Can we just not award it this year? Couldn't you at least make an argument for CJ Spiller at this point? He's had a play over 60 yards in every game this year.

It's almost bed time for me. I think we might be looking at a public dog this week in Oregon. I can't see playing USC as road chalk, but I bet the split is 55/45 or worse on Oregon at Wagerline. Any other games you're interested in?

Sham: NC St is on the radar, I don't see how F$U doesn't put up 50 easy on them this week. Illinois, Vandy, Rizo St and Northwestern all make me groan when I think about playing them so they'll get looks as well. Then there's whatever garbage I dig up throughout the week.

19: Illinois and Syracuse pretty much sum up my life right now.

Anyway, that's it for me. Catch you next week.

Monday 10/26

2009-10-26T18:25:00.002-04:00

I was planning on being in bed by 9p tonight before placing this wager. I see absolutely no reason to change my gameplan.

830p Washington +7.5 +105 3x

Good luck, I guess. Not like it matters.

CFB Week 9 Line Guesses

2009-10-25T17:34:00.003-04:00

I actually took my time this week, so my error score might be halfway decent. Sham and I are really close on a lot of lines. The big differences are Indiana/Iowa, WMU/Kent, Real Miami/Wake, ~~NMex/SDSU~~*, and Wyoming/Utah. We'll chat tomorrow and post the results in the evening, assuming I don't come down with SARS again or whatever I had last week.

* - Sham sent me an email and wanted SDSU to be the favorite. Duly noted.

Week 8 Mumme Poll Draft

2009-10-25T14:49:00.002-04:00

TCU and Cincy finally gave me enough reason to knock Boise out of the Top 5. At this point, I think those two teams would be favored over anyone in the next seven on a neutral field, except USC.

Top Five
Florida
Alabama
Texas
TCU
Cincinnati

Next Seven
Boise State
Iowa
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
USC
Oregon
LSU

Teams 6-11 seem pretty solid to me in some order. I thought about lifting Penn State, Oklahoma State, or Pitt ahead of LSU, but I left it as is for continuity. I'm sure I'll address it again next week.

Sunday 10/25

2009-10-25T11:04:00.006-04:00

I'm attempting to forget that last night happened. Donking off units is not a good way to become profitable.

Earlies
1p Kansas City +4.5 +106 3x
1p St. Louis +13.5 +107 8x
1p Cleveland +9 -109 5x
1p Tampa Bay +14.5 +106 5x

Middays
415p Miami +6 -103 5x
415p Dallas -5.5 +100 3x

Nightcap
820p ARZ/NYG u46.5 +108 3x

I opted to pass the side in favor of the total, which is more anti-public. I'm sure when the Giants win 35-31, I won't regret this decision at all. Good luck.

Saturday 10/24

2009-10-24T10:22:00.007-04:00

Today is like the salad before the steak. This college card isn't very good and hopefully keeping things small will limit my losses.

First Half (12p-6p)
12p Virginia +5 +105 5x
1220p Mississippi -6.5 -104 3x
1230p Baylor +9.5 -103 3x
330p Clemson +4.5 -105 5x

Second Half (6p-12a)
7p Michigan State -2 +100 5x
1025p Arizona State +7 +100 3x

I don't know if Michigan State would have been a 5x play if the rest of the card didn't suck. The other three possibilities all had warts and I didn't feel like playing them.

So Goddamn angry at Sparty, so I played Sparky. Flip this.

Leans NFL Week 7/CFB Week 8 Revisited

2009-10-23T19:14:00.003-04:00

Jesus, I am going broke on Sunday.

Definite Plays
12p UVa +5.5 vs. GT
1220p Ole Miss -6.5 vs. Arky
1230p Baylor +9.5 vs. Okie St
330p Clem +4.5 @ Miami
7p Sparty -1.5 vs. Iowa

1p KC +4.5 vs. SD
1p STL +13.5 vs. IND
1p CLE +9.5 vs. GB
1p TB +14.5 vs. NE
405p OAK +6 vs. NYJ
415p MIA +6 vs. NO
415p DAL -4 vs. ATL
820p ARZ +7 @ NYG
830p WAS +7 vs. PHL (Mon.)

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Indy +4.5 @ NW

1p PIT -4 vs. MIN

Borderline Volume Plays
7p Vandy +13.5 @ SCar
730p SMU +16 @ Hou
1015p Ariz St +6.5 @ Stan

I'm going to re-evaluate these later plays tomorrow evening. I'm not sure what combination, if any will make the card.

Friday 10/23

2009-10-23T18:47:00.002-04:00

Pretty straightforward high volume spot. The line doesn't look totally ridiculous, but at the same time, consensus data has has been heavily weighted on the Knights, Scarlet Variety, all week.

8p Knights, Black Variety +10 +111 3x

Back with leans later. Good luck.

Thursday 10/22

2009-10-22T18:15:00.002-04:00

Jonny pretty much summed up everything here. Even though it's a high volume spot, I just don't see enough to play North Carolina. Good luck if you are on the Heels.

Wednesday 10/21

2009-10-21T18:14:00.003-04:00

I was waiting most of the afternoon for the Matchbook markets to get liquid for the alternative lines. Of course, the price moved four cents less than 5 minutes after I finally floated this.

8p UTEP +8 +101 3x

If the line hadn't pushed up during the afternoon today, this would have been a large play. Good luck.

Leans NFL Week 7/CFB Week 8

2009-10-21T17:40:00.005-04:00

This college card is lackluster, but the NFL card is amazing. Vegas mentioned that he thinks this is the best card of the year. I agree with him and might take it a step further in that this is the best pro card I can remember.

Definite Plays
8p Army +10 vs. Rutgers (Fri.)
12p UVa +5.5 vs. GT
2p Baylor +9.5 vs. Okie St
330p Clem +4.5 @ Miami
7p Sparty -1 vs. Iowa

1p KC +4.5 vs. SD
1p STL +13 vs. IND
1p CLE +7 vs. GB
1p TB +14.5 vs. NE
415p MIA +6 vs. NO
835p WAS +7 vs. PHL (Mon.)

Rutgers is definitely going to get me back for playing them against Pitt last Friday.
Who's kidding who with those Virginia and Baylor lines?
I assume the books knew that Clemson lost to Maryland when they set that line.
The usual garbage suspects are there on the NFL card.
Drew Brees lit up what some consider the best defense in the NFL for almost 50 points last week and they're laying less than a touchdown against Miami. Neat.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p UConn +7.5 @ WVU
7p Ole Miss -6.5 vs. Arky

1p PIT -4 vs. MIN
415p DAL -4 vs. ATL
820p ARZ +7 @ NYG

I really can't find a whole lot to like about this college card. Neither of those college plays are terribly ugly.
I'm not a huge fan of NFL chalk, but Dallas especially looks like a solid look against one loss Atlanta.

Borderline Volume Plays
730p SMU +16.5 @ Hou

Are there any other small conference games that I should be watching?

Interestingly, even though their splits are large at Wagerline right now, there isn't a whole lot of action on Arizona State or Vandy right now. I'll look at those two further later in the week.

CFB Week 8 Line Guess Results

2009-10-21T13:39:00.003-04:00

I've been out with the flu all week, so no commentary. I sucked again, but Sham is getting really good.

Monday 10/19

2009-10-19T18:55:00.001-04:00

All day, I was fairly confident that I was going to be on Marmalard tonight. It seemed like a good time to fade the Broncos with a team that has underwhelmed so far. And then nothing came together. The consensus data is 55/45 on the Broncos at Wagerline and, even worse, 50/50 at SIA. Even the total looks fairly split. Looks like a solid pass. Good luck if you play anything.

Announcing: Contrarianville

2009-10-19T05:53:00.001-04:00

I'd write more, but well, it's 5:30 AM and Moneyline already covered everything here. Anyway, go sign up.

CFB Week 8 Line Guesses

2009-10-18T19:38:00.003-04:00

I spent like 15 minutes on the guesses this week. I have a feeling the results will bear that out.

Week 7 Mumme Poll Draft

2009-10-18T14:24:00.004-04:00

The coaches' poll is such a joke. I can't wait to see what the Harris folks put out today.

Top Five
Florida
Alabama
Texas
Boise State
TCU

Next Seven
Cincinnati
Southern Cal
Virginia Tech
Miami
Georgia Tech
Iowa
LSU

I wanted to drop Boise out of the Top 5, but for whom? USC looked like garbage yesterday. Cincinnati and Iowa don't really impress me.

At the end of the ballot, you can make an argument for Oregon over LSU or Virginia Tech. VT is still a Top 12 team, at least by this year's standards, with losses to Bama and GT and beating a maybe decent Nebraska team while thumping everyone else.

Sunday 10/18

2009-10-18T11:11:00.005-04:00

Another awful college day yesterday. Hopefully it doesn't bleed into the pro side.

Earlies
1p Tampa Bay +3 +108 3x
1p NYG/NO u47 +109 3x

Middays
415p Oakland +14 -104 5x

Nightcap
820p Chicago +3.5 +105 3x

I'll be on Oakland in the afternoon and maybe Chicago for SNF. Good luck.

Saturday 10/17

2009-10-17T09:00:00.006-04:00

I'll be updating this throughout the day today, rather putting them all up at once.

Earlies
12p Oklahoma +3 -106 3x
12p Purdue +13.5 +102 5x
1220p Vanderbilt +7.5 +100 3x
1230p Middle Tennessee State +4.5 +102 3x

Middays
330p NC State +2.5 -106 3x
330p UCLA +3.5 -104 3x
330p Florida -24.5 +104 3x

Nightcaps
6p Georgia Tech +3 +108 3x
6p San Diego State +17 +102 3x
730p Central Florida +13 +103 3x

Don't forget about ML's chat today, starting at 11:50 EDT.

Leans NFL Week 6/CFB Week 7 Revisited

2009-10-16T18:58:00.002-04:00

This college card is dangerous. I like a lot of the borderline plays you see below. I'll be quite content to only play 2 NFL games this weekend.

Definite Plays
12p Okla +3 vs. Tex
12p Pur +13.5 vs. tOSU
1220p Vandy +7.5 vs. UGa
1230p MTSU +4.5 vs. Miss St
330p UCLA +3.5 vs. Cal
330p NC St +2.5 @ BC
330p Fla -24.5 vs. Arky
6p GT +3 vs. VT

405p OAK +14 vs. PHL
830p SD -3.5 vs. DEN (Mon.)

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Wisky -2.5 vs. Iowa
330p Neb -10.5 vs. TTech
1015p Ariz St. -6.5 vs. Wash

1p TB +3 vs. CAR
1p WAS -6.5 vs. KC
820p CHI +3.5 @ ATL

Borderline Volume Plays
3p USU +8 vs. Nevada
330p Tulane +17 vs. Houston
6p SDSU +17 vs. BYU
8p SMU +7 vs. Navy

Friday 10/16

2009-10-16T15:56:00.002-04:00

Tonight's game had some huge line movement, which usually flags a game for me. However, a lot of it was due to Dr. Bob, and I don't have a whole lot of respect for line moves set off by him. He had one great year three years ago and has been mediocre since.

8p Rutgers +6 -101 3x

Pitt's not overly public tonight, but I fail to see how this line is not representing value on Rutgers.

Good luck tonight.

Revisiting 2009 Cincinnati

2009-10-16T12:53:00.006-04:00

When I previewed the Bearcats in the preseason, I had them around the 4th or 5th best team in the Big East. Clearly, they are much better than that. With last night's defeat of South Florida, the prospect of an undefeated Cincinnati team became much larger. I said on Twitter last night that I didn't think they would be less than a touchdown favorite the rest of the year except to Pitt. After consulting with Moneyline, here are the Bearcats' new expected spreads.

Pitt is the only team with better than a one in three shot of beating Cincy. I can't wait for ESPN touting the Wannstache if this scenario plays out.

The odds of an undefeated Big East team playing for the national title have gone up to around 21%. The media is going to have a field day with this.

Damn You And Your Daily Doubles, You Brigand

2009-10-15T19:47:00.003-04:00

I like late 90s SNL way too much. Thank you, ESPN, for making people in their late 20s and early 30s happy tonight.

Youngsters, reference here.

Thursday 10/15

2009-10-15T18:02:00.001-04:00

No work tomorrow = more boozy twitter tonight. Yay.

745p South Florida ML +116 3x

Wednesday 10/14

2009-10-14T17:58:00.003-04:00

I love it when baseball starts winding down and ESPN decides to satisfy gamblers with seven nights of football per week. It's not like having a normal, healthy relationship is an attainable goal between September and March, anyway.

8p Tulsa +9.5 -105 5x
8p Boise/Tulsa u54.5 +100 3x

What's the EV on the total? I'd have to put it somewhere between -2.7x and -2.6x.

Good luck tonight.

Leans NFL Week 6/CFB Week 7

2009-10-13T19:17:00.005-04:00

Hopefully, this week goes better than last. At first glance, the college card doesn't look too bad, while the NFL only has two obvious plays.

Definite Plays
8p Tulsa +8.5 vs. Boise (Wed.)
745p USF +3 vs. Cincy (Thu.)
8p Rutgers +3 vs. Pitt (Fri.)
12p Okla +3 vs. Tex (Neutral)
12p Pur +14 vs. tOSU
1220p Vandy +7.5 vs. UGa
330p UCLA +3.5 vs. Cal
330p UF -24.5 vs. Arky
6p GT +3 vs. VT

1p TB +3 vs. CAR
405p OAK +14 vs. PHL

All three weeknight games seem like they would be playable on a Saturday, let alone on a high volume weeknight.
When I first saw the OU line, I figured we be on them. What exactly has Texas done this year?
Purdue has outgained their opponents this year, yet are 1-5, because they turn the ball over way too much. At least Ohio State doesn't beat teams with defense and special teams.
Which loss from last week was worse: Vandy in West Point or Georgia getting Crompton'd?
GT was going to be favored by three in their game with the Hokies in the preseason. Are the
Florida is laying 24.5 against a team that beat a Top 25 team by 2 TDs last week. I'm not thrilled about laying that many.
Hokies are getting too much credit for Nebraska giving a game away and beating Miami the slop?
I might as well get used to playing the Bucs and Raiders.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Wisky -3 vs. Iowa
330p USC -10 @ ND
330p NCSU +2.5 @ BC
745p Bama -17 vs. SCar
1015p Ariz St -7 vs. Wash

1p HOU +4.5 @ CIN
1p CLE +14 @ PIT
415p BUF +10 @ NYJ
820p CHI +3 @ ATL
835p SD -4 vs. DEN (Mon.)

Not too often you see an unranked team laying three to a borderline Top 10 team.
I'd rather get kicked in the junk by a mule than play USC.
NCSU just got rocked by Duke, which I think is worse than getting rocked by VT.
Bama is a weaker version of UF.
None of that NFL garbage excites me.

Borderline Volume Plays
1230p MTSU +4.5 vs. Miss St
330p Tulane +16.5 vs. Hou
730p Ariz -4.5 vs. Stan

That's an awfully short line for a Sun Belt team versus an SEC team.
Like Joe Kemp wasn't making this list, even though The Pelican has been steamed to hell since it opened.
I don't really care about the Pac 10 game.

CFB Week 7 Line Guess Results

2009-10-12T19:15:00.001-04:00

Sham is much better at this than I am. I just don't pay close enough attention to the smaller conferences. In any case, he was a full point better again, 2.57 vs. 3.75 points average error.

Sham: On both Big East weeknight games I was off, horribly. I went through my line guesses Sunday morning (which wasn't the best idea because the ending of Arizona/Washington led me to drinking) and I had planned to give them a second look. Though after the early NFL games had concluded I had no desire to even think about college lines. Both Big East dogs look decent and NO, "Thursday Night Home Dog" angle has no bearing on this.

am19psu: I'm not sure which is worse, doing them Sunday morning hungover, or doing them Sunday afternoon while watching the Raiders, Bucs, and Rams. I can't believe I didn't cause any property damage this weekend. Ah, maturity.

Is Pitt really regarded that highly? I may not be the best person to ask, because there isn't a single thing I like about that town or college, but I don't see it being that far off.

S: It was more of Rutgers being lightly regarded (I don't even think that's a phrase). Getting killed by Cincy, beating powerhouse FIU by 8 at home and closing as a dog to Maryland. I didn't take into account the extra week that Schiano has to prepare.

Getting back to a team I do know, Nebraska. Guess I wasn't the only one surprised by the opening line being set at -6.5, it's now up to -10. Someone(s) have been loving Nebraska since that ugly Va Tech game with lines shifting significantly in their previous two games and in their upcoming contest.

19: Absolutely. Nebraska is pretty good football team, at least from what we can tell against VT and Mizzou. I think it's safe to assume that the sharps agree. Could Nebraska be a short favorite Nov 7 at home against OU?

You're not a big fan of Cal, are you? I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I was surprised that you threw up UCLA as a favorite.

S: At this point I'd have Nebraska +4.5 against the Sooners on 11/7. Of course, this week's results will have a lasting effect on how each team is viewed going forward.

In regards to Cal, I'm still bitter after their performance against USC. That play was made in large part to two of the biggest squares I know loving USC in that game. Seriously though, Cal has not done much this year except for getting handled quite easily in their last two outings.

One game that I liked going through my line guesses was Wisky but they're now trading at -3.

19: I guess we're not the only ones unimpressed with Iowa. They haven't exactly looked stellar since knocking off Penn State. If that line drops to -2.5 at some point, I think I'll still have to play Wisky. I can handle a line move from pk to 2.5, but going to three takes a lot of the value away.

USC isn't going to be a play against Jimmy Heisman at home, are they? Notre Dame seems to be getting a lot of press for beating no one so far, plus Notre Dame > Washington > USC, right?

S: I didn't think USC would open as a double-digit fav against ND but it was set that high for a reason, I just have no idea why. I do love the square line of thinking that you described earlier, especially when the "better team" is a substantial underdog.

One thing I want to know is who are the assholes that have pushed Tulane down two points from the opening line against Houston?

19: Bob Toledo's family? I mean, that is really the only logical conclusion. Unless, of course, Joe Kemp came down with Lassa Fever or something and I missed it.

Last one - we're going to be on Purdue again. Purdue has outgained they're opponents this year and tOSU should not have covered last week. Any other games you're looking at?

S: Haven't looked at too much right now but in addition to what we've discussed I'm looking at Ga Tech & Rizo St. Also what's up with Florida, Bama & Penn St being anti-pub? Several other intriguing (questionable) chalk looks as well.

19: The oddsmakers really haven't been screwing around this year with the elite teams. I've been on UF twice already and South Carolina beat Ole Miss just like Bama did. I don't have a good reason for PSU being anti-pub other than only covering against the Fighting Zooks this season.

Catch you again next week. Let's see if you can increase your margin of victory again.

Monday 10/12

2009-10-12T17:41:00.001-04:00

What's that? Another chance to lose my ass on a football game this week? Where do I sign up?

830p Miami +3 -105 3x
830p NYJ/MIA u36 +101 3x

I really don't like money.

CFB Week 7 Line Guesses

2009-10-11T18:25:00.001-04:00

Commentary and results to come tomorrow when I am coherent after being drugged and raped by football this weekend.

Week 6 Mumme Poll Draft

2009-10-11T17:00:00.003-04:00

This week's ballot is exactly like last week's ballot. What happened that would have changed my opinion? The only upset was Auburn, which was clearly overrated last week (#11 after only being favored 1.5 @ Tennessee?) and no team overperformed or underperformed expectations except Texas, who was obviously looking ahead to OU.

Top Five
Florida
Alabama
Texas
Virginia Tech
Boise State

Next Seven
TCU
Cincinnati
Miami (FL)
Ohio State
USC
Iowa
LSU

The only team I debated about moving up was Nebraska. Which team on my list are they better than though? Maybe Iowa or LSU, but Iowa is undefeated and LSU's loss is (slightly) better. If LSU lays an egg against inferior competition again, maybe I'll elevate Nebraska.

Let me know what you think in the comments.

Sunday 10/11

2009-10-11T09:39:00.007-04:00

Next time I say on Monday, "wow, this college card isn't very good this week," someone stop me from playing 11 games like an idiot.

A special thank you to the Arizona Wildcats today. It takes a special kind of suck to blow a 33-21 lead with three minutes to go in the ball game.

All of these were floated last night, so that's why the prices might be different than what is currently available.

1p St. Louis +10 +105 5x
1p Tampa Bay +15.5 +101 3x
1p Oakland +15 +101 3x
1p Detroit +10.5 +101 3x
415p Denver +3 +103 5x
--------------------------
820p Tennessee +3 +115 8x
820p IND/TEN u44 -101 3x

I'll be on Tenny at least for a 5x play tonight when I get home from work. Good luck today.

Saturday 10/10

2009-10-10T10:18:00.012-04:00

Thanks to Jonny for pointing out that my lean was PURDUE, not Minny. That would have been embarrassing.

As I mentioned last night, this card was easy to put together. I'll be interested to see how it differs from other cards in Contrarianville, because there isn't a whole lot of wiggle room for plays today.

Played Last Night
12p Syracuse +10 +102 3x
12p Illinois +4 +101 5x
12p Purdue +3 +105 3x
1220p Tennessee -1.5 +104 3x
330p Mississippi +4.5 -101 5x
330p Ohio State -16 +108 3x
330p UCLA +3.5 -105 3x
8p Florida -7 -106 3x
10p Arizona -3.5 +100 3x

I might add some games on later this afternoon. Good luck. We're going to need it.

Add-ons
8p Iowa -8 +103 3x
8p Florida -10 +100 2x
10p UNLV +17 -102 3x

Since I was 2-0 on my passes earlier, I'm sure these will each lose by two touchdowns.

Leans NFL Week 5/CFB Week 6 Revisited

2009-10-09T19:54:00.004-04:00

I haven't struggled at all coming up with this week's card. It's about as clear as I can remember. Which means I'll be looking at -35x Tuesday morning.

Definite Plays
12p Illinois +4 vs. Sparty
12p Minny -3 vs. Purdue
12p Cuse +10 vs. WVU
1220p Tenny -1.5 vs. UGa
330p Ole Miss +4.5 vs. Bama
330p tOSU -16 vs. Wisky
330p UCLA +3.5 vs. Oregon
8p Florida -7 -106 3x vs. LSU
10p Ariz -3.5 @ Wash

1p TB +15.5 @ PHL
1p OAK +15 @ NYG
1p DET +10.5 vs. PIT
1p STL +10 vs. MIN
415p DEN +3 vs. NE
820p TEN +3.5 vs. IND
830p MIA +1 vs. NYJ (Mon.)

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Arky +2.5 vs. Auburn
12p VT -13.5 vs. BC
8p Iowa -8 vs. Mich
8p FSU -3 vs. GT

1p BAL -9 vs. CIN

Borderline Volume Plays
6p Colo St +8 vs. Utah
10p UNLV +17 vs. BYU

For the games tomorrow, the most likely sides to get added are UNLV, Iowa, and FSU, in that order. I'll make the final decision on those in the afternoon.

Thursday 10/8

2009-10-08T17:03:00.000-04:00

Thank you, Phillies, for having a home playoff game, allowing me to scoop tickets tonight's Flyers/Pens game for half off.

I was trying to find a way to get Nebraska on the card tonight, but it's split action everywhere. Plus, wanting to play a side is usually a bad sign.

Good luck tonight.

Millman on Placing Wagers Late

2009-10-07T19:29:00.001-04:00

From Millman's latest column:

Bet early in the week and you are essentially betting against an oddsmaker who, with advice from some consultants and his staff, puts up what he considers to be the best number. Bet late in the week and you are betting against the collective IQ of hundreds of wise guys who pounded the value out of the number within the first 48 hours it was up. It's essentially like buying stock in Apple a week after the iPhone comes out, because you really want a chance to research it. Meanwhile, the pros on the Street made their money the first 24 hours and then cashed out.

Which I agree with for the most part. However, for the contrarian, the analogy fails. In the stock market, you don't have a bunch of people coming in and betting against the iPhone after it is released. If that were the case, you would create a market inefficiency between the true and perceived values of Apple. In the sports market, that inefficiency exists and can be leveraged if properly identified.

And that's why I believe contrarianism works. At least for now.

Saturday 10/10 A Little Early

2009-10-06T19:34:00.004-04:00

There is little doubt in my mind this is going to blow up in my face.

8p Florida -7 -106 3x

The logic isn't too hard to follow here. Teblow -10 was going to be a play. There is some question whether Teblow is going to play, but indications from most Florida blogs/boards are that he's practicing with no contact, which makes me think he'll play (otherwise why practice at all), therefore UF -7 should be value. Of course, as a Penn State fan, I remember quite fondly Daryll Clark's concussed performance last year versus Iowa. Hopefully, the extra week will be enough for the Jesus Child to prepare for Death Valley.

Leans NFL Week 5/CFB Week 6

2009-10-06T18:53:00.002-04:00

I did not think I would ever see a week where I have more definite plays in the pros as college. I suppose that's what happens when "after three weeks, we invariably know whether the season will be... relatively easy to figure out."

Definite Plays
12p Cuse +10 vs. WVU
12p Ill +4.5 vs. Sparty
1220p Tenny -2 vs. Aub
10p Ariz -2.5 vs. Wash

1p STL +10 vs. MIN
1p TB +13.5 @ PHL
1p OAK +16 @ NYG
415p DEN +3 vs. NE
820p TEN +3.5 vs. IND
835p MIA +1 vs. NYJ (Mon.)

You think the books are reacting to the public sentiment that the league is "easy" this year? I might lose 25x on Sunday.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
9p Neb -3 @ Mizz (Thu.)
9p LaTech +10.5 @ Nev (Fri.)
12p Arky +3 vs. Aub
330p tOSU -16.5 vs. Wisky
330p UCLA +4 vs. Ore
8p FSU -2.5 vs. GT
8p UF -7.5 vs. LSU
8p Iowa -8 vs. Mich

1p KC +9 vs. DAL
1p CLE +6 @ BUF
1p BAL -9 vs. CIN

Lots of garbage chalk out there on the college card.
I'm not going to need to see a lot to pull the trigger on the Huskers or Bulldogs.
I'm slightly surprised at the early Wagerline numbers for Arky/Aub. I thought Auburn would be obviously public with the press they are getting.
If the UF line was -10 like it was when it opened, I would have it as a definite. Obviously, that's pending Teblow.
Masoli is doubtful for Oregon. Not sure how that will play out this week with the public.
I feel like all three of those borderline NFL leans would be obvious plays any other week.

Borderline Volume Plays
6p CSU +7.5 vs. Utah
10p UNLV +16.5 vs. BYU
11p Fresno -9.5 @ Hawaii

After seeing what's happened to Florida State, isn't it possible that BYU sucks (and by extension, so does Oklahoma)?
I haven't seen Hawaii getting that many on the island in a long time to a team that's not Boise.

I'm hating Sunday already.

CFB Week 6 Line Guess Results

2009-10-05T18:15:00.004-04:00

Sham beat me by almost a full point (2.35 avg error vs. 3.24), though, as he points out, it's almost entirely due to me having no idea to how value a couple of lesser conference teams. I'm over it, since this exercise isn't for me to show how smart I am (or dumb, as it were), but to learn how to properly value teams, so I don't think stupid things like "PSU should be favored by 18 on the road against Illinois." Discussion follows.

Sham: I'll start with my most egregious error, listing Texas as only a 24-point favorite at home against Colorado. In week 3 Texas was favored by 19.5 at home against my favorite coach's squad, Texas Tech. Clearly, Texas Tech would be more than a single-digit favorite at home against Colorado. I'll blame that one on my sinuses.

am19psu: Dude, trust me, you have nothing to be ashamed of. Look at some of the misses I made in the shitty conferences. Also, WTF was with my tOSU line.

Sham: There were a few missteps in the shittier conferences, but in those particular games what are the chances that those games will be anti-public sides? Very few. If you look at games that will attract more attention (money) I think you did a better job of nailing those.

A line that surprised me was Arizona/Washington. Washington played LSU tough at home and beat USC. Arizona should be no problem. I think back to a couple of weeks ago when Arizona opened as a fav at Oregon St before the huge line movement put the Beavs as favorites. Looks like the oddsmakers like Arizona a bit more than everyone else.

am19psu: Agreed about the lesser conferences and about UW/UA. I don't think we were the only ones surprised either.

I was a little unhappy about the Nebraska line. We both had it opening higher. If we were right, we would definitely be on them Thursday night. As it is, I probably will be anyway.

Sham: I think I nailed the Nebraska line (-2.5), now it's at 3 which is encouraging. I mean they haven't won a game on the road against a ranked squad since 1997. The only other team who can say that is the football powerhouse in Durham. As long as the consensus #s aren't skewed in Nebraska's favor I'll have a tough time not making a homer play.

Is it me or is this card completely underwhelming? Initial looks are Nebraska, Arizona, Colorado St., Illinois & Tenny. Not thrilled about the last two for whatever reason. I'm sure come Saturday I'll have double-digits plays though.

am19psu: Oh wow, it's up to 2.5 now? It opened at 1 last night at the Greek. Guess the sharps thought the same we did. I hate to agree with Stewie, but Nebraska is an underrated football team right now.

I agree with all of your leans, minus Colo St (based only on low volume), but plus UF and maybe tOSU (-16, really?).

Do you think there's any chance we end up on the Bulldogs on another weeknight shitfest?

Sham: 1? I'm a bit surprised by that, but it's good that the sharps have faith in Nebraska, who should by all accounts be undefeated.

I could see Florida rounding into a play on a weak card with the injury to Tebow and LSU winning on this past week at Georgia, but last year Florida whipped LSU. At this point I'm hesitant to pull the trigger.

One thing that concerns me with La Tech is their inability to take advantage of Nevada's less than steller secondary. tOSU is down to -14, FWIW.

am19psu: I'll be interested to see if the public remembers that Nevada stinks this year or if they will just remember the last two weeks.

I think this was good enough for a first run through. Let's see what it looks like this week and decide how to adjust going forward.

Monday 10/5

2009-10-05T17:49:00.001-04:00

No real surprise here. Time to ruin what has been an otherwise outstanding week.

845p GB/MIN u46 +101 3x

Good luck.

CFB Week 6 Line Guesses

2009-10-04T20:04:00.001-04:00

This is the first installment with Sham as an opponent. We were off on quite a few games, mostly because I was plum retarded about a few teams. Discussion and results will be posted tomorrow night.

Week 5 Mumme Poll

2009-10-04T16:36:00.005-04:00

I'm participating in the Mumme Poll this year. This week's ballot is a dry run and doesn't actually count. I'm going to post a draft of my ballot on Sunday afternoons to make sure I didn't screw anything up. Monday night, I'll submit my final ballot before the 9p deadline.

Top Five
Florida
Alabama
Texas
Virginia Tech
Boise State

The Rest
Southern Cal
Iowa
Ohio State
LSU
Miami
TCU
Cincinnati

Note: order doesn't matter and I didn't take any time to separate the above into an ordered 1-5 and 6-12. I would imagine the biggest gripe will be leaving undefeated LSU out of the Top 5 while having Boise and VT in. My rationale is that LSU is going to be a double digit dog at home against Florida next week if Tebow plays, and I don't think that would be true for Tech or Boise.

Feel free to tell me where you think I am wrong in the comments.

Sunday 10/4

2009-10-04T11:03:00.007-04:00

Busy again today. I hope I'm back in time to check out the late games.

Earlies
1p Jacksonville +3 +109 3x
1p Cleveland +6.5 +100 3x
1p Kansas City +8 +103 3x

Late Games
405p Miami -1 -109 3x
415p St. Louis +9.5 -108 3x
415p Denver +2.5 +103 3x

These late games are ugly as hell.

Nightcap
820p Pittsburgh -6 +107 5x

Here is where the day goes from mediocre to awful.

Saturday 10/3

2009-10-03T10:14:00.004-04:00

Some of these prices are different than what is currently available because I put all of these in last night.

12p Syracuse +6.5 +100 5x
12p Minnesota -2.5 -107 3x
12p Duke +16.5 +103 5x
12p Michigan State -3.5 -104 3x
1220p Kentucky +15.5 +103 3x
330p Notre Dame -12.5 +105 3x
745p Tennessee -3 +113 3x

At the least, I can see myself adding on UTEP tonight. We'll see about anything else.

9p UTEP +14.5 -110 3x

Good luck today.

Leans NFL Week 4/CFB Week 5 Revisited

2009-10-02T20:38:00.003-04:00

Not much change this week. I'm not excited about laying this much chalk, but all of them look pretty ugly, so it's at least justifiable.

Definite Plays
12p Sparty -3.5 vs. Mich
12p Duke +16.5
12p Cuse +6.5 vs. USF
12p Minny -2.5 vs. Wisky
330p ND -11.5 vs. Wash
745p Tenny -2.5 vs. Auburn

1p CLE +5.5 vs. CIN
1p KC +9 vs. NYG
1p JAX +3 vs. TEN
820p PIT -6.5 vs. SD

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p UMd +12.5 vs. Clem
12p UVa +13 @ UNC
330p BC +3.5 vs. FSU
330p Stan -5 vs. UCLA

1p NE -1 vs. BAL
405p NO -7 vs. NYJ
405p MIA +1 vs. BUF
415p STL +9.5 vs. SF

Borderline Volume Plays
4p UNLV +5.5 @ Nevada
9p UTEP +14 vs. Houston

415p DEN +3 vs. DAL

I really don't see a way around UTEP.

Friday 10/2

2009-10-02T16:32:00.001-04:00

Remarkably, I'm passing both the Aggies and the Cardinals. This looks like split action to me on both teams. I certainly don't think there is enough of an edge that the books are shading the line, despite the likely higher volume. Leans coming later tonight. Good luck if you play either.

Thursday 10/1

2009-10-01T18:07:00.003-04:00

Well, last night was so easy, let's see how tonight can cockpunch me.

8p UAB +10 +100 3x

There are two reasons to pass this game: Deandre Brown and Damion Fletcher are out tonight and the line pushed down to 9 earlier today but is back up to the open of 10.5 currently. Neither of those was enough to keep me away from this game, though, at least not on a Thursday night.

Programming Note

2009-09-30T18:57:00.002-04:00

No, I won't be asking you to select features of my wardrobe. Sham is replacing Moneyline in the CFB line guessing contest due to time constraints on the latter. I'll put the guesses up on Sunday night and grade them on Monday. Then everyone can laugh when Sham beats my error score by two points.

Wednesday 9/30

2009-09-30T18:43:00.003-04:00

I'm surprised this came together the way it did this afternoon.

8p Louisiana Tech -5.5 +100 3x
8p Hawaii/LaTech u55 +107 3x

The total seemed like the right play all day. The side became a play because Hawaii has become more public throughout the afternoon, the line moved toward LaTech, and because it's a weeknight. If I really believe my idea about volume, then I should be pushing what I believe to be small edges on weeknight games. Anyway, good luck tonight.

Leans NFL Week 4/CFB Week 5

2009-09-29T17:45:00.004-04:00

I'm not really impressed with either card this week. Tebow getting hurt and LSU getting the attention of the pundits for sucking really screws up my UF -12 play for next week, too.

Definite Plays
9p USU +24 @ BYU (Fri.)
12p Cuse +6.5 vs. USF
1230p Kentucky +16.5 vs. Bama
330p Duke +16.5 vs. VT
330p Sparty -2 vs. Mich

1p JAX +3 vs. TEN
1p KC +9 vs. NYG
1p CLE +5.5 vs. CIN

Utah State is the gratuitous game I wouldn't play if it were on a Saturday.
Sparty starting 1-3 and facing an overrated Michigan team seems like a good contrarian spot, especially if Forcier plays.
The other three college games are pretty much slam dunks, I would think.
Why are the Bengals giving 5.5 points in any situation?

Borderline Contrarian Plays
745p WVU -17.5 vs. Colo (Thu.)
8p Lville +6.5 vs. Pitt (Fri.)
12p Minny -2.5 vs. Wisky
330p ND -13.5 vs. UW
7p Stan -6 vs. UCLA
730p aTm -1 vs. Arky
730p Tenny -2 vs. Aub

405p NO -7 vs. NYJ
415p DEN +3 vs. OAK
415p STL +9.5 @ SF
820p PIT -6.5 vs. SD

Louisville is much more likely to be the weeknight Big East representative on the card.
The rest of those games are chalk that I'm not a fan of, but could be persuaded into playing if the trends are good this week.
Do any of those NFL games look all that ugly to you?
I don't care what the consensus sites say, I'm not fading TB and DET this week, with WAS and CHI. Does that make any sense?

Borderline Volume Plays
12p Marsh +2.5 vs. ECU
12p NW +7 @ Pur
12p UMd +13.5 vs. Clem
12p Buff +9.5 vs. CMU
4p UNLV +3.5 @ Nev
9p UTEP +16 vs. Hou

I really don't have much insight for these games other than they looked ugly. On the other hand, I'm not really looking to mix it up in CUSA or the WAC much anymore, either.

Week 5 Line Guesses

2009-09-28T17:09:00.003-04:00

Error down marginally this week to 3.41 points off per game. I still had a few big misses. It should have been better, but I was out all day yesterday and scrambled to put it together before the lines came out at 6:45.

I can't believe I overvalued Colorado by a touchdown.
Duke has had basically no lines for me to make a reasonable guess.
I'm consistently overvaluing Northwestern and undervaluing Purdue. Sooner or later (Week 12), I'll get it right.
I'm not sure why I thought Ohio State was 11 points better than Michigan, though I'm a bit surprised that the margin between the Big Two is down to 4.
Vandy was a stupid miss. LSU and Ole Miss are roughly the same team and Vandy was favored by 8.5 over Mississippi State when the game was played in Nashville.
Arkansas was favored by 13.5 in the preseason against Texas A&M. Did the Aggies get good and I somehow missed it? Because I'm pretty sure Arkansas is who we thought they were.

Sunday 9/27

2009-09-27T08:42:00.007-04:00

Lots of stuff to do today that doesn't involve watching football.

1p Jacksonville +3.5 -106 3x
1p Tampa Bay +6.5 -105 3x
1p St. Louis +6.5 -103 3x
4p Buffalo +5.5 104 3x

Good luck.

---------------------------

This is probably incredibly stupid, but I can't find a good contrarian reason to pass it, other than I suck at totals.

Adding the Colts, too. Because I don't like money.

820p IND/ARZ u48.5 -101 3x
820p Indianapolis +3 +102 3x

Hopefully, it's 27-20 at half so I can go to bed early.

Saturday 9/26

2009-09-26T11:06:00.009-04:00

I still have a headache from the Nevada loss.

Earlies (12p-329p)
12p Southern Mississippi +13.5 +100 3x
12p South Florida +14 +104 3x

Just the standard contrarian fare at noon.

Middays (330p-659p)
330p Illinois +13.5 +100 3x
330p Oregon +5.5 +100 3x
330p NC State -1 +103 3x
330p Virginia Tech +2.5 +102 3x

This is everything I put in last night. Adding on is likely throughout the day. Good luck.

Passing Bama and Clemson at 330. The Crimson Tide are a strong pass, but I can't see myself paying for three extra points.

Nightcaps (7p-12a)
7p Bowling Green +16 +103 3x
9p Stanford -9 +100 3x
1015p USC -45 -101 3x

I can see arguments for passing Stanford, but these games that move 1-2 points against the public had value last year. I generally think those games still have value, if they don't move too much more, like Bama did today.

Leans NFL Week 3/CFB Week 4 Revisited

2009-09-25T18:40:00.002-04:00

A lot of things moved during the week. Only one college game that looked definite Tuesday remains there tonight. That's usually not a good thing.

Definite Plays
12p USF +14 @ FSU
12p SoMiss +13 vs. KU
330p VT +3 vs. Miami
330p Ore +5.5 vs. Cal
330p NC St -1 vs. Pitt
330p Illy +13.5 vs. tOSU

1p JAX +3.5 @ HOU
1p TB +6.5 vs. NYG
1p STL +6.5 vs. GB
405p SEA +1 vs. CHI
405p BUF +6 vs. NO

I can't see any of the college plays being above a standard. I'm just hoping to escape them at .500. Tampa and the Rams looks like good candidates for above average plays on the pro side.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p NW +1 vs. Minny
12p Ind +20 vs. Mich
1220p Miss St +11 vs. LSU
330p Clem -2.5 vs. TCU
330p Bama -17.5 vs. Arky
8p Purdue +6.5 vs. ND
915p Hou -1 vs. TTech

1p WAS -6.5 vs. DET
415p CIN +3.5 vs. PIT

No chance I'm playing the Cats with that line movement. Mississippi State is borderline, but 3.5 points is a lot to give up. I'm surprised Purdue isn't more anti-pub. Bama and Houston still have a better than average chance of making the card.

There is no way I am legitimately fading Detroit.

Borderline Volume Plays
7p BGSU +16.5 vs. Boise
9p Stan -8 vs. Wash
1015p USC -45.5 vs. Wazzu

All three of these could end up on the card, as well, but I'd like to wait and see how tomorrow plays out.

Friday 9/25

2009-09-25T18:19:00.002-04:00

Like last night, there was never a question whether I would bet this game, only how much.

9p Nevada +7 +106 8x

In this case, I can find no reason not to go all out with an ocho. Seeing that it is my first ocho, it's sure to lose. Sorry, Contrarianville.

I'll put a leans post up later. Good luck tonight.

Thursday 9/24

2009-09-24T18:10:00.002-04:00

It was never a question whether I would bet on this game, only how much.

745p South Carolina +4 +102 5x

I opted to shy away from the personal max because of all the "Thursday Night Home Dog" chicken garbage floating around on the internet. It's still a solid play because there is no reason any square can give for taking it other than TNHD, but not enough to go for the ocho.

Good luck tonight.

The Real Top 25

2009-09-23T18:47:00.005-04:00

In order to value these rankings, your poll has to based off who has the best chance to win the national title, not a power ranking where the strength a particular team is judged. Also, these are somewhat market driven, so some of the Coaches' poll will bleed into this, if bettors are rational. Regardless, here is where 5Dimes thinks the teams stand through Week 3.

1. Florida	+190
2. Texas	+500
3. Alabama	+550
4. Penn State	+1000
t-5. Miami Florida	+1200
t-5. Mississippi	+1200
7. Southern Cal	+1600
8. California	+2200
9. LSU	+2500
10. Cincinnati	+2800
11. Oklahoma	+3000
t-12. North Carolina	+4000
t-12. Michigan	+4000
t-14. Ohio State	+5000
t-14. Boise State	+5000
16. Kansas	+5500
17. Notre Dame	+6000
t-18. Iowa	+6600
t-18. Auburn	+6600
t-20. Clemson	+7500
t-20. South Florida	+7500
t-20. TCU	+7500
t-20. Wisconsin	+7500
t-20. Florida State	+7500
t-25. Pittsburgh	+8000
t-25. UCLA	+8000

Leans NFL Week 3/CFB Week 4

2009-09-22T18:00:00.003-04:00

I have a feeling the first ocho of the season will be broken out early this week, and possibly twice. There are a couple obvious, must plays in both college and pro, and then a few more marginal games. Some of the more marginal games are going to make it onto my college card. Hopefully, I can show some restraint on the pro side.

Definite Plays
745p SoCar +3 vs. Ole Miss (Thu.)
9p Nevada +7.5 vs. Mizzou (Fri.)
12p NW -2.5 vs. Minny
6p NC State -1.5 vs. Pitt
915p Hou -2 vs. TTech

1p TB +6.5 vs. NYG
1p STL +6.5 vs. GB
405p BUF +5 vs. NO

Both weeknight games scream big action.
Northwestern's line doesn't make a ton of sense given both their lines against improved Syracuse, especially since the Cats lost to them.
I think everyone knows Houston knocked off Oklahoma State, but I doubt Joe Q thought they would be favored against last year's cinderella.
All three of the pro lines make me want to vomit. I mean, New Orleans has put up eleventy billion points in the last two weeks and they are only giving 5 in Buffalo?

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Illy +14 @ tOSU
12p Fresno +16.5 @ Cincy
1230p Miss St +12.5 vs. LSU
330p Bama -17 vs. Arky
630p Stan -7 vs. Wash
730p VT +3 vs. Miami
8p Pur +7 vs. ND

1p JAX +3.5 @ HOU
1p CLE +13 @ BAL
405p SEA +1 vs. CHI
415p CIN +4 vs. PIT
415p OAK -1 vs. DEN
820p ARZ -1 vs. IND

Illy and Fresno are marginal. Those lines are bigger than I thought they would be.
Miss St and Alabama represent an interesting dichotomy. Before the season, the books had Bama/Ole Miss/LSU about the same. Clearly, Bama has pulled far ahead in the books' eyes. I'm not sure the difference is as large for the public.
I'll be shocked if I don't end up on Stanford. Washington is an obvious let down spot.
So is Miami in Blacksburg.
Purdue just got beat by a MAC school and now only getting a touchdown against America's Team?
Cincy seems like the best bet out of those to make the pro card.
What am I missing in JAX/HOU? That didn't seem like the uber-public game that the consensus numbers make it out to be.

Borderline Volume Plays
12p UMd +2.5 vs. Rutgers
12p BGSU +16.5 vs. Boise
2p SoMiss +14 @ Kansas
10p USC -45 vs. Wazzu

Maryland sucks.
I think fading Boise is going to at least end up as a lean every week.
Southern Miss is actually a good CUSA outfit this year. That's like winning a silver medal in the Special Olympics.
I think I might end up on Southern Cal on principle. They could only put up 13 last week in Seattle and now they are favored by 45. Awesome.

Monday 9/21

2009-09-21T18:22:00.001-04:00

I was dangerously close to making this a 5x.

835p Miami +3 +103 3x

Then I remembered I suck at betting on the NFL.

CFB Week 4 Line Guesses

2009-09-21T17:49:00.004-04:00

More improvement again this week, dropping the average error to 3.49. However, outliers are known to skew means and I had a huge one this week. If you take out the Western Kentucky/Navy miss, it dropped even further. Just a retarded miss on my part.

I was particularly happy that I nailed the ridiculous contrarian lines of the week, which also happen to be the weeknight games this week. More on that tomorrow with leans, I suppose.

Here are some of the big misses this week:

Obviously, the preseason GOY lines should be taking less precedence now, but I am surprised that Bama is four points better in Vegas' eyes now.
Wake and Purdue continue to baffle me. You'd think more data would help. You'd be wrong.
Nebraska got better in the books' eyes over the last few weeks. They were only favored by 24 against FAU and 21 against Arky State, both whom are worse than Laffy Taffy. Note, Nebraska + 0.5 = LSU on a neutral field.
I guess last week's big difference between the actual and GOY line wasn't all due to Cincy being more impressive. The Oregon St/Rizo line is off nine points from preseason.
Rice sucks. I thought for sure that line would be higher, especially after being 32.5 dogs last week to Pokie State, though 18 was too big of a swing.
The books are not impressed with the Huskies yet. Stanford is favored by the same amount as preseason. Seems like a good letdown spot this week.
There's really not a lot to talk about with the Navy/W Ky line. I was huffing glue when I came up with that line.

I'm really looking forward to forecasting the Penn State/Illinois line next week. Nothing I love more than seeing an 'L' before it happens.

Sunday 9/20

2009-09-20T10:24:00.007-04:00

There was nothing that went right yesterday. Which only means I'm looking at 0-3 today.

Plays
1p Houston +7 +102 3x
1p New York Jets +3.5 -115 3x
1p Philadelphia +2.5 +110 3x
415p Chicago +2.5 +107 3x

I dropped Detroit from my card because outside of Wagerline, the consensus numbers weren't all that spectacular. The Jets got added because outside of Wagerline, the consensus numbers were all in favor of the Pats, especially considering SIA never moved their line off 4.

Saturday 9/19

2009-09-19T09:55:00.010-04:00

No live blog today, at least not here. I'll be running around all afternoon. I suppose everyone will just have to get their hate out on Twitter or RMMB.

Plays
12p Minnesota +13.5 -101 3x
12p Duke +24 -103 1.8ish-x
12p Duke +23.5 +102 1.2ish-x
330p Florida -29.5 -105 3x
330p Oregon -5 +104 3x
745p Arkansas -2.5 +103 3x
10p Kansas State +12 +100 3x

Angry Add-ons
645p Oregon State +1 +100 3x
10p Kansas State +11 +105 2x

That's way too much chalk.

Good luck today. Here's to 1-4.

Leans NFL Week 2/CFB Week 3 Revisited

2009-09-18T21:11:00.003-04:00

Consensus numbers have changed quite a bit over the last three days for a few of the games I was looking at, particularly NEB/VT and FSU/BYU.

Definite Plays
12p Minny +13.5 vs. Cal
12p Duke +24 @ Kansas
330p Oregon -5 vs. Utah
330p Florida -29.5 vs. Tenny
745p Arky -2.5 vs. Georgia
1015p K-State +12 @ UCLA

1p HOU +6.5 @ TEN
1p DET +10 vs. MIN
415p CHI +1 vs. PIT
830p MIA +3 vs. IND (Mon.)

That's going to be my college card tomorrow, unless something changes. The most likely add would be ULM.

Even though I am being tighter with my plays this week, four games still made it on to the card. There is just not much to argue with the consensus numbers on any of those plays.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Clemson -7 vs. BC
12p ECU +7.5 @ UNC
330p Neb +5 @ VT
330p ND -10 vs. Mich St
645p Ore St +1 vs. Cincy
7p FSU +8 @ BYU

Oregon State would still be a play if not for Quizz Rodgers' status. Nothing else stands out in the NFL. It's one of those deals where if I played one more game, I'd end up on 5 more.

Borderline Volume Plays
330p MTSU +7 @ UMd
5p Baylor -10.5 vs. UConn
10p ULM +20 @ Ariz St

Sorry, Adam, but Maryland is flipping terrible.

Friday 9/18

2009-09-18T20:37:00.002-04:00

I definitely thought I would get my price matched when I left for dinner. Instead, I just filled someone else's order.

9p Fresno State +7.5 -106 5x

Leans coming up momentarily.

Schedule Change

2009-09-17T19:19:00.002-04:00

Since I am old and rarely go to bars on Friday nights anymore, I think I am going to revisit leans on Fridays. It makes sense to do it then because I can go right from updating leans to floating bets at Matchbook for Saturday, particularly since I end up doing work most weekend mornings.

Despite my long term Wreck position, I'm not against fading GT this season, but neither of these last two Thursday games have exactly been slam dunk contrarian spots.

I Am Confused

2009-09-16T19:48:00.005-04:00

This game appeared to be the best look on the board, at least thinly sliced:

Arkansas -1.5 vs. Georgia

Wagerline: 37%/63%
SIA: 22%/78%
Carib: 35%/65%
Sportsbook: 59%/41%
5Dimes: 65%/35%

The second best lean, in my opinion, was this:

Fresno St +7 vs. Boise St

Wagerline: 31%/69%
SIA: 24%/76%
Carib: 26%/74%
Sportsbook: 9%/91%
5Dimes: 43%/57%

Is there something about 5Dimes' clientele I'm not understanding? Or am I misdiagnosing the games that should be public? The rest of the contrarian games don't seem that far off, at least once you grasp the normal spread of the percentages.

Leans NFL Week 2/CFB Week 3

2009-09-15T18:42:00.004-04:00

Things are going to be loosened up a little bit in college football, but this week's card isn't overwhelming with contrarian spots. At the very least, I should break out a 5x play or two for this first time this season. On the pro side, I'm planning on actually taking my own advice and keeping things close to the vest.

Definite Plays
9p Fresno +7 vs. Boise (Fri.)
12p Duke +22.5 @ Kansas
330p Oregon -4 vs. Utah
330p Nebraska +4 @ VT
645p Ore St -1 vs. Cincy
745p Arky -1.5 vs. UGa
1015p K-State +12 @ UCLA

1p HOU +6.5 @ TEN
1p DET +9.5 vs. MIN
415p CHI +3 vs. PIT

The one spot that doesn't seem totally obvious here is Oregon State, but I'm basing this off the preseason line of 10 (along with consensus numbers). I can't believe that opinions of these two teams have changed so much in two months just because Cincy crushed Rutgers in Week 1 and Oregon State looked lackluster against UNLV last week.

I'm kind of repulsed by playing the Bears because I've never been blown away by Cutler like everyone else, but it's kind of hard to argue with the consensus numbers at the moment.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p EMU +24 @ Mich
12p Minny +14 vs. Cal
12p Clem -6.5 vs. BC
330p Wash +20.5 vs. USC
330p ND -10 vs. Mich St
5p Baylor -10.5 vs. UConn
7p FSU +7.5 @ BYU
745p WVU +7 @ Aub

1p NYJ +4 vs. NE
1p CIN +9.5 @ GB
1p PHL -1 vs. NO
1p CAR +6.5 @ ATL
1p JAX -3 vs. ARZ

There are arguments for any of these college leans here, but none of them are that strong, except maybe Minny. The thought of only getting 14 with the Gophers is nauseating, since they were one of those teams that seemed to luck their way to a winning season last year, and therefore due to return back to earth this year. Maybe that means it should be play.

None of the other NFL games really interest me all that much, except maybe fading the Falcons.

Borderline Volume Plays
12p No Ill +13 @ Purdue
330p Akron -4.5 vs. Indiana
330p MTSU +6 @ UMd
5p SMU -7 @ Wazzu
10p ULM +19 @ Ariz St

For whatever reason, these late night Pac 10 tilts have been receiving a lot of action, probably from drunk squares chasing. They are only suspicions at this point, but I'm starting to question if there isn't something to exploit there.

CFB Week 3 Line Guesses

2009-09-14T19:23:00.007-04:00

Moneyline is still experiencing technical difficulties, so no contest yet. I did much better this week than last, with an average error 3.65 points. That's still not great, but I'm getting better. Same format as last week, games where I was off two points or less are in green (Good), six or more in orange (Gorilla Math).

The lines were taken from 5Dimes last night around 6:30p, except the Sun Belt nonsense, which I didn't grab until tonight.

There were a few games where I was way off:

I clearly had no idea how what to make of Marshall. Maybe if I hadn't equated Missouri (-20 vs. BGSU, preseason unranked) and Virginia Tech (-19.5 vs. Marshall, #7 preseason) in my mind, I would have done better.
Apparently garbage SEC teams are still almost a touchdown better on a neutral field than Steve Kragthorpe. This game would have been way better in 2006.
I continue to give Tulsa no credit. Maybe I can lose a few more units fading them before I convince myself.
The books are way more impressed with Cincy than they were in the preseason. That line was sitting at 10 at Sportsbook when I did the team previews.
I am much higher on Northwestern than the books, though some of that probably comes down to the books liking Paulus a bit more. I didn't think that line would open shorter than Minny/Cuse.
I flipped up on the ECU/UNC line. UNC is slightly better than WVU, who was favored by 5.5 against ECU. I was trying to factor in the the UNC/UConn line and just screwed up my HFA math, which also reared its head in the UConn/Baylor game.
Really? Wazzu can't even be favored at home against SMU? Going to have take a bigger swing at the Cougs next week.

All of the other misses were MAC, CUSA, or Sun Belt fails. I can live with that. Moneyline is still going to thump me whenever the contest gets started.

Sunday 9/13

2009-09-13T07:09:00.003-04:00

Time to give back all of yesterday's profits, which I'll get to enjoy losing from the office.

1p Cleveland +3.5 +104 3x
1p Tampa Bay +5.5 -106 3x
1p Detroit +13 +115 3x

I'm sure I'll be in a great mood when I get home after these games are over.

Contrarianville CFB Week 2 Live Chat

2009-09-12T11:40:00.000-04:00

Contrarianville CFB Week 2

Saturday 9/12

2009-09-12T10:44:00.012-04:00

I got a few of my plays matched yesterday, so that's why the juice might be slightly off what's available right now.

12p Connecticut +4 +105 3x
330p Tulane +18.5 -106 3x
330p Louisiana Tech +7.5 -104 3x
330p Houston +15.5 -107 3x
8p Ohio State +7 -105 3x
1030p San Jose State +13.5 +100 3x

I'd be playing more games if it were later in the season. I don't want to dig a deep hole early. If that means leaving some EV on the table, so be it.

Live blog up at 11:45.

Question for Readers

2009-09-11T17:21:00.002-04:00

TheFiancee is going out of town tomorrow, which leaves me here with the four televisions.

Would you be interested in participating in a Live Blog tomorrow?(polls)

Friday 9/11

2009-09-11T15:59:00.002-04:00

Nothing sounds more exciting for a Friday night than taking 3.5 with a MAC team versus a BCS school.

9p Toledo +3.5 -105 3x

Is anyone else becoming totally disinterested in Streak besides me?

No Trips To The First State

2009-09-11T11:11:00.002-04:00

Delaware's sports lottery rules have been set. The only way I can see it being worthwhile is if there is a lot of line movement between Thursday and Sunday and the half point parlays actually have value, but that would take a lot of line movement.

Leans NFL Week 1/CFB Week 2 Revisited

2009-09-11T09:58:00.003-04:00

This post will ordinarily be completed on Thursdays, but since I spent 9 hours at airports yesterday for a three hour meeting, I didn't get it done.

Analysis of the leans are already elsewhere on the internet, so don't expect much in the way of commentary.

Definite Plays
9p Toledo +3.5 vs. Colo (Fri.)
12p UConn +3.5 vs. UNC
330p Hou +15.5 @ Okla St
330p LaTech +7 @ Navy
330p Tulane +17.5 vs. BYU
8p tOSU +6.5 vs. USC

1p CLE +4 vs. MIN

Not sure how I missed Houston last time through. LaTech made the leap because, at least according to Wagerline, there is a lot of action on that game.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
1221p Troy +36 @ Florida
130p Marshall +19 @ VT
330p UVa +11 vs. TCU
330p Wyo +31.5 vs. Texas
4p UCLA +10 @ Tenny
1015p Ore -12 vs. Purdue

1p DET +13 @ NO
1p TB +6 vs. DAL
415p SF +6 @ ARZ
1015p OAK +9 vs. SD (Mon.)

I'm not particularly excited about laying big numbers with crappy schools against big name teams. If it was later in the season, I would likely play these games. But right now, I think they are looking like passes.

UCLA bothers me because it moved a point. I don't know if one point makes a ton of difference in terms of what whales/sharps are thinking, but it did move onto a semi-key number.

All of the NFL games except Oakland are well supported by the new FO numbers. Sunday may be more of a bloodbath than I was expecting.

Borderline Volume Plays
730p UTEP +12.5 vs. Kansas
1030p SJSU +13.5 vs. Utah

These two stand the best chance of making it on the card tomorrow. I like both of these spots, but that's usually a bad thing.

Leans NFL Week 1/CFB Week 2

2009-09-08T17:05:00.004-04:00

As with last week, I'm trying to keep everything small. In previous years, I think I would play about 10-12 games on the college side, but trying to keep to higher volume games is going to eliminate some plays.

Given that my selection criteria have changed, I'm going to change the way the leans posts are itemized. I'm sure you'll be able to figure it out.

Definite Plays
9p Toledo +3.5 vs. Colo (Fri.)
12p UConn +4 vs. UNC
330p Tulane +17.5 vs. BYU
8p tOSU +6.5 vs. USC

1p CLE +4 vs. MIN

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p CMU +14 @ Sparty
4p UCLA +9 @ Tenny
1015p Oregon -12 vs. Purdue

1p DET +13 @ NO
1p TB +6 vs. DAL
415p SF +6.5 @ ARZ
1015p OAK +9 vs. SD (Mon.)

Borderline Volume Plays
330p LaTech +7 @ Navy
330p UVa +10.5 vs. TCU
730p UTEP +11.5 vs. Kansas
8p N Mex +18 vs. Tulsa
1030p SJSU +14 vs. Utah
11p UNLV +7 vs. Ore St

I'm not sure it's possible for NFL games to end up in the Borderline Volume list. Those games are college games that would have been auto-plays last year, but make me question whether they will attract enough action that the Books feel the need to shade the line. The Borderline Contrarian list is kind of like last year's Moderate Leans.

CFB Week 2 Line Guesses

2009-09-07T18:00:00.005-04:00

Moneyline and I are going to be doing something to similar to the contest he and Vegas Watch ran for college hoops last winter. With it being a holiday weekend invented solely for drinking, ML was a little behind, so we'll start the contest next week. However, I managed to put together my guesses before the lines were released yesterday.

Green indicates a good job, orange line differences would get me fired. I would obviously be getting fired.

My ongoing problems with Purdue and Minnesota in the BigTen screwed up the line with Oregon and the Cuse/PSU line.

Considering the preseason VT/UVa line was only 7.5 in Charlottesville, it's safe to say the loss to Bill and Mary affected the book's opinion of the Hoos significantly.

I horribly underestimated the difference between Auburn and Mississippi State. That was just an oversight on my part, since I had the Ole Miss lines for both teams.

I guess the books are more confident in Pitt than I am. Buffalo is a decent MAC team, which Pitt has shown the ability to lose to before.

The other big misses involved teams where there was zero guidance available, so I'm not terribly concerned with them. With the Week 1 and Week 2 data, I expect next week I'll drop my average miss down significantly from the 4.43 points I accrued this week.

Streakin 9/7

2009-09-07T09:46:00.006-04:00

There is no reason to mess around with the CFB nonsense today, but I need to start paying attention to Streak again.

11a R. Soderling over. N. Davydenko
4p Rutgers vs. Cincinnati
8p First score is a touchdown
Current Streak: 1

I'll take Rutgers at 4, then wait to see what the 2H total is for FSU/Miami.

Instant Reactions - Week 1 (Updated)

2009-09-05T22:32:00.004-04:00

Next Week: Tulane +23 3x
Next Week: Virginia +3 3x
September 19: Florida State +3.5 5x

-----------------------------------

After looking at my line guesses for next week, tOSU, Cuse, and Tulane look like sure things, with Oregon and Virginia on the "kinda looks gross" list.

Contrarianville Week 1 Live Chat

2009-09-05T11:35:00.000-04:00

Contrarianville CFB Week 1

Saturday 9/5

2009-09-05T08:34:00.008-04:00

Only two games for me today. I decided to pass Cal because a) it was questionable to begin with, b) I wanted to play it, and c) SIA showed Cal getting 60% of the action.

Plays
12p Syracuse +6.5 +111 3x
1030p Washington +17 +117 3x

I floated some excellent prices last night and got them matched. Hopefully that continues into the season.

I'll be running a live blog here starting at 1145a if anyone wants to join in the misery. Otherwise, good luck today.

Streak for the Cash
330p Oklahoma State vs. Georgia
8p Alabama 1H (win only) vs. Virginia Tech
Current Streak: 0

Alabama 1H later.