tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post1384390118551391860..comments2023-07-14T07:50:35.876-04:00Comments on You guessed it, Frank Stallone: Where The Value LiesUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-36853658203222790182009-05-12T04:18:00.000-04:002009-05-12T04:18:00.000-04:00Oh, and I should also say to keep up the good work...Oh, and I should also say to keep up the good work. I really enjoy reading your stuff here.LMQhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03926740756095077865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-69500308126735805962009-05-12T04:16:00.000-04:002009-05-12T04:16:00.000-04:00What you're saying makes perfect sense and I compl...What you're saying makes perfect sense and I completely agree that there is no reason to exclude that game.<br /><br />I probably wasn't as direct as I should have been earlier, but my real point is that the smaller the sample of games, the less meaningful the results. I guess my earlier question should have been more along the lines of "how much does removing ANY one game affect a team's under/overratedness?"<br /><br />To put it another way, I'm saying that the information presented in this post is more valuable now, after a month plus of games than if the same study had been done a week into the season.LMQhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03926740756095077865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-61881264661686182072009-05-11T20:49:00.000-04:002009-05-11T20:49:00.000-04:00Look at it another way: you can roll '6' a bunch o...Look at it another way: you can roll '6' a bunch of times in a row on a fair die. Also, there is a probability that the Indians could have strung together that many hits/walks in a row to score 22 in a game. You wouldn't remove the sample of rolling fifteen '6's in a row just because it was improbable when calculating the EV of the die.<br /><br />Does that make more sense?am19psuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18441351103470970374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-57732658188564266632009-05-11T20:32:00.000-04:002009-05-11T20:32:00.000-04:00Hypothetically, say that removing that one game mo...<I>Hypothetically, say that removing that one game moved Cleveland from being underrated to being overrated. Don't you think that piece of information would be worth knowing?</I><BR><BR>Only if removing the game gets the calculation closer to the true expected value, which is impossible to know without a population or having a legitimate reason for removing the point.<br /><br />In any case, I have to imagine, given the calculation for the first order record, that the point is moot.am19psuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18441351103470970374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-21761090988018977312009-05-11T20:25:00.000-04:002009-05-11T20:25:00.000-04:00I didn't say I wanted it removed from the record (...I didn't say I wanted it removed from the record (or really anything close to that). I was really just curious how much that one game affected their "underratedness."<br /><br />Hypothetically, say that removing that one game moved Cleveland from being underrated to being overrated. Don't you think that piece of information would be worth knowing?LMQhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03926740756095077865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-28443744833920821302009-05-11T19:46:00.000-04:002009-05-11T19:46:00.000-04:00"I think LMQ wants that game removed the record en..."I think LMQ wants that game removed the record entirely, so they wouldn't get credit for any of the baserunners/EqR/baseruns/etc."<br /><br />Which is, of course, going to give you a much less realistic depiction of how they've played than if you included that game.Vegas Watchhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02353166004125421683noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-48079025487443241632009-05-11T18:51:00.000-04:002009-05-11T18:51:00.000-04:00Yes, 20 runs is not that common, but the Indians h...<I>Yes, 20 runs is not that common, but the Indians had a ton of baserunners/total bases that day, so its not like they didn't deserve to score a ton of runs.</I><BR><BR>I agree, but I think LMQ wants that game removed the record entirely, so they wouldn't get credit for any of the baserunners/EqR/baseruns/etc.am19psuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18441351103470970374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-87978181384205746962009-05-11T18:47:00.000-04:002009-05-11T18:47:00.000-04:00As far as second order runs go, they would still b...As far as second order runs go, they would still be about the same. Yes, 20 runs is not that common, but the Indians had a ton of baserunners/total bases that day, so its not like they didn't deserve to score a ton of runs. Without going through my record, I'm pretty sure the Indians had over 20 using the baseruns formula, which means that game is pretty irrelevant to their over/underratedness.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-16509059319263100812009-05-11T17:37:00.000-04:002009-05-11T17:37:00.000-04:00I'd be interested to whether and by how much the I...<I>I'd be interested to whether and by how much the Indians would be underrated if you removed the 22-4 Yankees game.</I><BR><BR>Looking at first order records, the Indians projected winning percentage falls from .423 to .364. Their first order difference falls from -2.6 to -1.3, so they are still underrated, but they would be the 6th most underrated team.<br /><br />Frankly, I don't have the time to figure out the adjusted equivalent runs to get the third order difference.<br /><br />Of course, this whole exercise is pointless anyway, since you just can't take points out of a sample without reason. Yes, Wang was hurt, but that 22-4 beatdown is part of the Indians' resume. It's not like we (or computer rankings, to be more analogous) discount Texas Tech's drubbing by Oklahoma because the rest of their resume looked so good.am19psuhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18441351103470970374noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-26457069472165016532009-05-11T14:58:00.000-04:002009-05-11T14:58:00.000-04:00I'd be interested to whether and by how much the I...I'd be interested to whether and by how much the Indians would be underrated if you removed the 22-4 Yankees game.LMQhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03926740756095077865noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20098524.post-88416271223519540592009-05-11T08:36:00.000-04:002009-05-11T08:36:00.000-04:00Don't some cricket matches take days?Don't some cricket matches take days?Jim D.noreply@blogger.com