Saturday 10/31

My apathy towards this season is growing.

12p Syracuse +15 +100 5x
1p Southern Mississippi +6.5 +101 3x
330p Wake Forest +6.5 +104 3x
330p Arizona State +6.5 -101 3x
330p Illinois +7 -101 3x
730p Vanderbilt +11.5 +102 3x

Good luck.

------

Really glad I didn't make Vandy a large play like I considered.

Friday 10/30

I waited too long on this game and got a poor price.

8p South Florida +3 -110 3x

Plays for tomorrow will be Cuse, SoMiss, Wake, Rizo St, Juice, and Vandy. No need for a whole post for that. Good luck.

Leans NFL Week 8/CFB Week 9

I'd like to just put a zero up for this post. At least the NFL looks relatively painless this week.

Definite Plays
8p USF +3 vs. WVU (Fri.)
12p Cuse +14.5 vs. Cincy
12p NCSU +9.5 @ FSU
1p SoMiss +6.5 @ Hou
330p Wake +7.5 vs. Miami
330p Ariz St +6.5 vs. Cal
330p Ill +7 vs. UM
730p Vandy +11.5 vs. GT

• All of these college plays may be too aggressive. I'm obviously going to investigate further throughout the week.
• I'll be glad to have Greg Paulus and Juice Williams back in my life Saturday. I missed you guys.
• I like fading overrated Florida teams. Unfortunately, that only applies to two of the three this week.
• If Wagerline's numbers are to be believed, the SoMiss/Hou is going to take in an absurd amount of action for a C-USA game.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
1220p Auburn +3.5 vs. Ole Miss
1230p Baylor +13.5 vs. Neb
130p Colo +3.5 vs. Mizzou
330p Fla -15 vs. UGa

1p BUF +3.5 vs. HOU
415p GB -3 vs. MIN
415p CAR +10 @ ARZ

• I initially thought that the Auburn/Ole Miss game would be a pass, but I forgot that Ole Miss has a pro style, SEC quarterback.
• Did the public miss Nebraska losing to Texas Tech and Iowa State the last two weeks?
• I actually like Florida as a side this week, which means I should pass.
• None of that NFL garbage looks appealing, though I'm sure some of it will spill over to make my Sunday miserable.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
330p CMU +5 @ BC
8p Minny +3.5 vs. Sparty

• Not that anyone has noticed, but the Chips are a pretty good football team this year.
• I was surprised to see the Minny line still posted after Decker's injury announcement today. I can't wait to back a completely neutered Gopher team.

Tuesday 10/27

When I woke up this morning and checked last night's score, I thought there wouldn't be anything I would want to do less today than update my record.

8p Memphis +5 +104 3x

Then this happened. Good luck.

CFB Week 9 Line Guess Results

Sham won again, but I pulled the margin closer, 2.53 to 3.03. Improvement is nice. Comments below.



am19psu: Clearly, I was on crack when I came up with the UNC/VT line. After putting up lines too large the last few weeks, I overadjusted this week on that game and the Indy/Iowa game. Any games you're pissed at yourself for? I mean, other than gambling at all on Sunday.

Sham: I did most my line guesses during halftime of the early games. Needless to say I was a bit upset and didn't put too much care into my guesses this week. I'm not really pissed about any of my guesses except for maybe Wyo/Utah and ULM/Troy just because I was so far off. A line that I found odd was Tulsa -17. I really didn't expect Tulsa to be that high, I see you believed the same.

19: I know Houston beat SMU by three touchdowns, but it wasn't that much higher than the spread. Are the books really implying that Tulsa is a point better Houston? It's not like GJ Kinne is in any way good.

In a similar vein, I guess the books have been impressed with the Beavers the last two weeks or unimpressed with UCLA. I just took the difference of their Stanford lines in Week 6 (+2, home) and Week 4 (+5, road) respectively and managed to be off by ten freaking points.

Sham: Did some checking and Bo Levi left the game early with a dislocated shoulder against Houston and is questionable for this week's game against Tulsa, that explains it.

I looked at Beavs & Bruins recent lines with UCLA being +9.5 against Arizona last week on the road. Now Arizona > Oregon St, but with Oregon State's close game against USC and UCLA not covering the number last week against Arizona I can see justification for it even though it does seem high.

Getting back to C-USA, Southern Miss is already down to +6.5 against Houston. Interesting, but not surprising.

19: I'm looking forward to potentially wagering on a quarterback named Martevious. It's not like sharps haven't been fading Houston every week (ref. ML).

Do you think we will end up on Florida Saturday in the TWLOCP (again, for some of us) and with Georgia's secondary, is this the week they finally look better than feces?

Sham: Georgia is more of a name than Arkansas and Mississippi State so it is a definite possibility given Florida has only been dominant against Troy and the first quarter against Kentucky. I'm looking forward to Tulane/LSU in a sadistic sort of way. I can't wait to see the Pelican offense march into Baton Rouge.

19: I don't think we'll be on the Pelican, but it was nice of Vegas to set a line that didn't make me immediately nauseous. Staying in the SEC, I guess we should thank Florida for keeping it somewhat close against Miss State. Otherwise, we'd probably be on them against Kentucky, after beating Auburn two weeks ago. Speaking of which, I think we'll both be happy to pass the Ole Miss/Auburn interception fest.

Sham: Interception fest? You must be confusing pro-style QB Jevan Snead and spread-option extraordinaire Chris Todd with some other mediocre QBs. Speaking of turnovers, Nebraska is -13.5 at Baylor. 4 points better than Okie St was last week? That's good to know because I want no part of either team right now.

19: I still don't think Nebraska is that bad. They're unlikely to replicate eight turnovers again and they outgained Texas Tech. Are they a possible Top 12 team like I thought two weeks ago? Doubtful, but it's not like they are garbage either.

Any chance we're on the Pokes this week? I'd like to fade Texas, but I get the feeling I'm not the only one with that opinion.

Sham: Pokes still look to be a sexy team plus the line isn't gross. I can see public rationale for taking Okie St +10 at home against a Texas team who hasn't done much this year (see 2-4-1 record ATS). One game that has definite written all over it is 'Cuse +15 versus Cincy. An odd game I'm interested in is Wazzu/ND, I'm sure Jimmy Heisman will have to engineer a comeback over another quality foe.

19: Yeah, I don't see any way around Cuse. I didn't need those five units anyway.

I wish the books would treat the Rams/Browns/Bucs like they've treated Wazzu the last two years. At least we never get involved with their games. I didn't look at any Heisman press this week. Is Jimmy H still considered a Top 3 contender? Can we just not award it this year? Couldn't you at least make an argument for CJ Spiller at this point? He's had a play over 60 yards in every game this year.

It's almost bed time for me. I think we might be looking at a public dog this week in Oregon. I can't see playing USC as road chalk, but I bet the split is 55/45 or worse on Oregon at Wagerline. Any other games you're interested in?

Sham: NC St is on the radar, I don't see how F$U doesn't put up 50 easy on them this week. Illinois, Vandy, Rizo St and Northwestern all make me groan when I think about playing them so they'll get looks as well. Then there's whatever garbage I dig up throughout the week.

19: Illinois and Syracuse pretty much sum up my life right now.

Anyway, that's it for me. Catch you next week.

Monday 10/26

I was planning on being in bed by 9p tonight before placing this wager. I see absolutely no reason to change my gameplan.

830p Washington +7.5 +105 3x

Good luck, I guess. Not like it matters.

CFB Week 9 Line Guesses

I actually took my time this week, so my error score might be halfway decent. Sham and I are really close on a lot of lines. The big differences are Indiana/Iowa, WMU/Kent, Real Miami/Wake, NMex/SDSU*, and Wyoming/Utah. We'll chat tomorrow and post the results in the evening, assuming I don't come down with SARS again or whatever I had last week.


* - Sham sent me an email and wanted SDSU to be the favorite. Duly noted.

Week 8 Mumme Poll Draft

TCU and Cincy finally gave me enough reason to knock Boise out of the Top 5. At this point, I think those two teams would be favored over anyone in the next seven on a neutral field, except USC.

Top Five
Florida
Alabama
Texas
TCU
Cincinnati

Next Seven
Boise State
Iowa
Georgia Tech
Virginia Tech
USC
Oregon
LSU

Teams 6-11 seem pretty solid to me in some order. I thought about lifting Penn State, Oklahoma State, or Pitt ahead of LSU, but I left it as is for continuity. I'm sure I'll address it again next week.

Sunday 10/25

I'm attempting to forget that last night happened. Donking off units is not a good way to become profitable.

Earlies
1p Kansas City +4.5 +106 3x
1p St. Louis +13.5 +107 8x
1p Cleveland +9 -109 5x
1p Tampa Bay +14.5 +106 5x

Middays
415p Miami +6 -103 5x
415p Dallas -5.5 +100 3x

Nightcap
820p ARZ/NYG u46.5 +108 3x

I opted to pass the side in favor of the total, which is more anti-public. I'm sure when the Giants win 35-31, I won't regret this decision at all. Good luck.

Saturday 10/24

Today is like the salad before the steak. This college card isn't very good and hopefully keeping things small will limit my losses.

First Half (12p-6p)
12p Virginia +5 +105 5x
1220p Mississippi -6.5 -104 3x
1230p Baylor +9.5 -103 3x
330p Clemson +4.5 -105 5x

Second Half (6p-12a)
7p Michigan State -2 +100 5x
1025p Arizona State +7 +100 3x

I don't know if Michigan State would have been a 5x play if the rest of the card didn't suck. The other three possibilities all had warts and I didn't feel like playing them.

So Goddamn angry at Sparty, so I played Sparky. Flip this.

Leans NFL Week 7/CFB Week 8 Revisited

Jesus, I am going broke on Sunday.

Definite Plays
12p UVa +5.5 vs. GT
1220p Ole Miss -6.5 vs. Arky
1230p Baylor +9.5 vs. Okie St
330p Clem +4.5 @ Miami
7p Sparty -1.5 vs. Iowa

1p KC +4.5 vs. SD
1p STL +13.5 vs. IND
1p CLE +9.5 vs. GB
1p TB +14.5 vs. NE
405p OAK +6 vs. NYJ
415p MIA +6 vs. NO
415p DAL -4 vs. ATL
820p ARZ +7 @ NYG
830p WAS +7 vs. PHL (Mon.)

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Indy +4.5 @ NW

1p PIT -4 vs. MIN

Borderline Volume Plays
7p Vandy +13.5 @ SCar
730p SMU +16 @ Hou
1015p Ariz St +6.5 @ Stan

I'm going to re-evaluate these later plays tomorrow evening. I'm not sure what combination, if any will make the card.

Friday 10/23

Pretty straightforward high volume spot. The line doesn't look totally ridiculous, but at the same time, consensus data has has been heavily weighted on the Knights, Scarlet Variety, all week.

8p Knights, Black Variety +10 +111 3x

Back with leans later. Good luck.

Thursday 10/22

Jonny pretty much summed up everything here. Even though it's a high volume spot, I just don't see enough to play North Carolina. Good luck if you are on the Heels.

Wednesday 10/21

I was waiting most of the afternoon for the Matchbook markets to get liquid for the alternative lines. Of course, the price moved four cents less than 5 minutes after I finally floated this.

8p UTEP +8 +101 3x

If the line hadn't pushed up during the afternoon today, this would have been a large play. Good luck.

Leans NFL Week 7/CFB Week 8

This college card is lackluster, but the NFL card is amazing. Vegas mentioned that he thinks this is the best card of the year. I agree with him and might take it a step further in that this is the best pro card I can remember.

Definite Plays
8p Army +10 vs. Rutgers (Fri.)
12p UVa +5.5 vs. GT
2p Baylor +9.5 vs. Okie St
330p Clem +4.5 @ Miami
7p Sparty -1 vs. Iowa

1p KC +4.5 vs. SD
1p STL +13 vs. IND
1p CLE +7 vs. GB
1p TB +14.5 vs. NE
415p MIA +6 vs. NO
835p WAS +7 vs. PHL (Mon.)

• Rutgers is definitely going to get me back for playing them against Pitt last Friday.
• Who's kidding who with those Virginia and Baylor lines?
• I assume the books knew that Clemson lost to Maryland when they set that line.
• The usual garbage suspects are there on the NFL card.
• Drew Brees lit up what some consider the best defense in the NFL for almost 50 points last week and they're laying less than a touchdown against Miami. Neat.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p UConn +7.5 @ WVU
7p Ole Miss -6.5 vs. Arky

1p PIT -4 vs. MIN
415p DAL -4 vs. ATL
820p ARZ +7 @ NYG

• I really can't find a whole lot to like about this college card. Neither of those college plays are terribly ugly.
• I'm not a huge fan of NFL chalk, but Dallas especially looks like a solid look against one loss Atlanta.

Borderline Volume Plays
730p SMU +16.5 @ Hou

• Are there any other small conference games that I should be watching?

Interestingly, even though their splits are large at Wagerline right now, there isn't a whole lot of action on Arizona State or Vandy right now. I'll look at those two further later in the week.

CFB Week 8 Line Guess Results

I've been out with the flu all week, so no commentary. I sucked again, but Sham is getting really good.

Monday 10/19

All day, I was fairly confident that I was going to be on Marmalard tonight. It seemed like a good time to fade the Broncos with a team that has underwhelmed so far. And then nothing came together. The consensus data is 55/45 on the Broncos at Wagerline and, even worse, 50/50 at SIA. Even the total looks fairly split. Looks like a solid pass. Good luck if you play anything.

Announcing: Contrarianville

I'd write more, but well, it's 5:30 AM and Moneyline already covered everything here. Anyway, go sign up.

CFB Week 8 Line Guesses

I spent like 15 minutes on the guesses this week. I have a feeling the results will bear that out.

Week 7 Mumme Poll Draft

The coaches' poll is such a joke. I can't wait to see what the Harris folks put out today.

Top Five
Florida
Alabama
Texas
Boise State
TCU

Next Seven
Cincinnati
Southern Cal
Virginia Tech
Miami
Georgia Tech
Iowa
LSU

I wanted to drop Boise out of the Top 5, but for whom? USC looked like garbage yesterday. Cincinnati and Iowa don't really impress me.

At the end of the ballot, you can make an argument for Oregon over LSU or Virginia Tech. VT is still a Top 12 team, at least by this year's standards, with losses to Bama and GT and beating a maybe decent Nebraska team while thumping everyone else.

Sunday 10/18

Another awful college day yesterday. Hopefully it doesn't bleed into the pro side.

Earlies
1p Tampa Bay +3 +108 3x
1p NYG/NO u47 +109 3x

Middays
415p Oakland +14 -104 5x

Nightcap
820p Chicago +3.5 +105 3x

I'll be on Oakland in the afternoon and maybe Chicago for SNF. Good luck.

Saturday 10/17

I'll be updating this throughout the day today, rather putting them all up at once.

Earlies
12p Oklahoma +3 -106 3x
12p Purdue +13.5 +102 5x
1220p Vanderbilt +7.5 +100 3x
1230p Middle Tennessee State +4.5 +102 3x

Middays
330p NC State +2.5 -106 3x
330p UCLA +3.5 -104 3x
330p Florida -24.5 +104 3x

Nightcaps
6p Georgia Tech +3 +108 3x
6p San Diego State +17 +102 3x
730p Central Florida +13 +103 3x

Don't forget about ML's chat today, starting at 11:50 EDT.

Leans NFL Week 6/CFB Week 7 Revisited

This college card is dangerous. I like a lot of the borderline plays you see below. I'll be quite content to only play 2 NFL games this weekend.

Definite Plays
12p Okla +3 vs. Tex
12p Pur +13.5 vs. tOSU
1220p Vandy +7.5 vs. UGa
1230p MTSU +4.5 vs. Miss St
330p UCLA +3.5 vs. Cal
330p NC St +2.5 @ BC
330p Fla -24.5 vs. Arky
6p GT +3 vs. VT

405p OAK +14 vs. PHL
830p SD -3.5 vs. DEN (Mon.)

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Wisky -2.5 vs. Iowa
330p Neb -10.5 vs. TTech
1015p Ariz St. -6.5 vs. Wash

1p TB +3 vs. CAR
1p WAS -6.5 vs. KC
820p CHI +3.5 @ ATL

Borderline Volume Plays
3p USU +8 vs. Nevada
330p Tulane +17 vs. Houston
6p SDSU +17 vs. BYU
8p SMU +7 vs. Navy

Friday 10/16

Tonight's game had some huge line movement, which usually flags a game for me. However, a lot of it was due to Dr. Bob, and I don't have a whole lot of respect for line moves set off by him. He had one great year three years ago and has been mediocre since.

8p Rutgers +6 -101 3x

Pitt's not overly public tonight, but I fail to see how this line is not representing value on Rutgers.

Good luck tonight.

Revisiting 2009 Cincinnati

When I previewed the Bearcats in the preseason, I had them around the 4th or 5th best team in the Big East. Clearly, they are much better than that. With last night's defeat of South Florida, the prospect of an undefeated Cincinnati team became much larger. I said on Twitter last night that I didn't think they would be less than a touchdown favorite the rest of the year except to Pitt. After consulting with Moneyline, here are the Bearcats' new expected spreads.



Pitt is the only team with better than a one in three shot of beating Cincy. I can't wait for ESPN touting the Wannstache if this scenario plays out.





The odds of an undefeated Big East team playing for the national title have gone up to around 21%. The media is going to have a field day with this.

Damn You And Your Daily Doubles, You Brigand

I like late 90s SNL way too much. Thank you, ESPN, for making people in their late 20s and early 30s happy tonight.



Youngsters, reference here.

Thursday 10/15

No work tomorrow = more boozy twitter tonight. Yay.

745p South Florida ML +116 3x

Wednesday 10/14

I love it when baseball starts winding down and ESPN decides to satisfy gamblers with seven nights of football per week. It's not like having a normal, healthy relationship is an attainable goal between September and March, anyway.

8p Tulsa +9.5 -105 5x
8p Boise/Tulsa u54.5 +100 3x

What's the EV on the total? I'd have to put it somewhere between -2.7x and -2.6x.

Good luck tonight.

Leans NFL Week 6/CFB Week 7

Hopefully, this week goes better than last. At first glance, the college card doesn't look too bad, while the NFL only has two obvious plays.

Definite Plays
8p Tulsa +8.5 vs. Boise (Wed.)
745p USF +3 vs. Cincy (Thu.)
8p Rutgers +3 vs. Pitt (Fri.)
12p Okla +3 vs. Tex (Neutral)
12p Pur +14 vs. tOSU
1220p Vandy +7.5 vs. UGa
330p UCLA +3.5 vs. Cal
330p UF -24.5 vs. Arky
6p GT +3 vs. VT

1p TB +3 vs. CAR
405p OAK +14 vs. PHL

• All three weeknight games seem like they would be playable on a Saturday, let alone on a high volume weeknight.
• When I first saw the OU line, I figured we be on them. What exactly has Texas done this year?
• Purdue has outgained their opponents this year, yet are 1-5, because they turn the ball over way too much. At least Ohio State doesn't beat teams with defense and special teams.
• Which loss from last week was worse: Vandy in West Point or Georgia getting Crompton'd?
• GT was going to be favored by three in their game with the Hokies in the preseason. Are the
• Florida is laying 24.5 against a team that beat a Top 25 team by 2 TDs last week. I'm not thrilled about laying that many.
• Hokies are getting too much credit for Nebraska giving a game away and beating Miami the slop?
• I might as well get used to playing the Bucs and Raiders.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Wisky -3 vs. Iowa
330p USC -10 @ ND
330p NCSU +2.5 @ BC
745p Bama -17 vs. SCar
1015p Ariz St -7 vs. Wash

1p HOU +4.5 @ CIN
1p CLE +14 @ PIT
415p BUF +10 @ NYJ
820p CHI +3 @ ATL
835p SD -4 vs. DEN (Mon.)

• Not too often you see an unranked team laying three to a borderline Top 10 team.
• I'd rather get kicked in the junk by a mule than play USC.
• NCSU just got rocked by Duke, which I think is worse than getting rocked by VT.
• Bama is a weaker version of UF.
• None of that NFL garbage excites me.

Borderline Volume Plays
1230p MTSU +4.5 vs. Miss St
330p Tulane +16.5 vs. Hou
730p Ariz -4.5 vs. Stan

• That's an awfully short line for a Sun Belt team versus an SEC team.
• Like Joe Kemp wasn't making this list, even though The Pelican has been steamed to hell since it opened.
• I don't really care about the Pac 10 game.

CFB Week 7 Line Guess Results

Sham is much better at this than I am. I just don't pay close enough attention to the smaller conferences. In any case, he was a full point better again, 2.57 vs. 3.75 points average error.



Sham: On both Big East weeknight games I was off, horribly. I went through my line guesses Sunday morning (which wasn't the best idea because the ending of Arizona/Washington led me to drinking) and I had planned to give them a second look. Though after the early NFL games had concluded I had no desire to even think about college lines. Both Big East dogs look decent and NO, "Thursday Night Home Dog" angle has no bearing on this.


am19psu: I'm not sure which is worse, doing them Sunday morning hungover, or doing them Sunday afternoon while watching the Raiders, Bucs, and Rams. I can't believe I didn't cause any property damage this weekend. Ah, maturity.

Is Pitt really regarded that highly? I may not be the best person to ask, because there isn't a single thing I like about that town or college, but I don't see it being that far off.


S: It was more of Rutgers being lightly regarded (I don't even think that's a phrase). Getting killed by Cincy, beating powerhouse FIU by 8 at home and closing as a dog to Maryland. I didn't take into account the extra week that Schiano has to prepare.

Getting back to a team I do know, Nebraska. Guess I wasn't the only one surprised by the opening line being set at -6.5, it's now up to -10. Someone(s) have been loving Nebraska since that ugly Va Tech game with lines shifting significantly in their previous two games and in their upcoming contest.


19: Absolutely. Nebraska is pretty good football team, at least from what we can tell against VT and Mizzou. I think it's safe to assume that the sharps agree. Could Nebraska be a short favorite Nov 7 at home against OU?

You're not a big fan of Cal, are you? I don't necessarily disagree with you, but I was surprised that you threw up UCLA as a favorite.


S: At this point I'd have Nebraska +4.5 against the Sooners on 11/7. Of course, this week's results will have a lasting effect on how each team is viewed going forward.

In regards to Cal, I'm still bitter after their performance against USC. That play was made in large part to two of the biggest squares I know loving USC in that game. Seriously though, Cal has not done much this year except for getting handled quite easily in their last two outings.

One game that I liked going through my line guesses was Wisky but they're now trading at -3.


19: I guess we're not the only ones unimpressed with Iowa. They haven't exactly looked stellar since knocking off Penn State. If that line drops to -2.5 at some point, I think I'll still have to play Wisky. I can handle a line move from pk to 2.5, but going to three takes a lot of the value away.

USC isn't going to be a play against Jimmy Heisman at home, are they? Notre Dame seems to be getting a lot of press for beating no one so far, plus Notre Dame > Washington > USC, right?


S: I didn't think USC would open as a double-digit fav against ND but it was set that high for a reason, I just have no idea why. I do love the square line of thinking that you described earlier, especially when the "better team" is a substantial underdog.

One thing I want to know is who are the assholes that have pushed Tulane down two points from the opening line against Houston?


19: Bob Toledo's family? I mean, that is really the only logical conclusion. Unless, of course, Joe Kemp came down with Lassa Fever or something and I missed it.

Last one - we're going to be on Purdue again. Purdue has outgained they're opponents this year and tOSU should not have covered last week. Any other games you're looking at?

S: Haven't looked at too much right now but in addition to what we've discussed I'm looking at Ga Tech & Rizo St. Also what's up with Florida, Bama & Penn St being anti-pub? Several other intriguing (questionable) chalk looks as well.


19: The oddsmakers really haven't been screwing around this year with the elite teams. I've been on UF twice already and South Carolina beat Ole Miss just like Bama did. I don't have a good reason for PSU being anti-pub other than only covering against the Fighting Zooks this season.

Catch you again next week. Let's see if you can increase your margin of victory again.

Monday 10/12

What's that? Another chance to lose my ass on a football game this week? Where do I sign up?

830p Miami +3 -105 3x
830p NYJ/MIA u36 +101 3x

I really don't like money.

CFB Week 7 Line Guesses

Commentary and results to come tomorrow when I am coherent after being drugged and raped by football this weekend.

Week 6 Mumme Poll Draft

This week's ballot is exactly like last week's ballot. What happened that would have changed my opinion? The only upset was Auburn, which was clearly overrated last week (#11 after only being favored 1.5 @ Tennessee?) and no team overperformed or underperformed expectations except Texas, who was obviously looking ahead to OU.

Top Five
Florida
Alabama
Texas
Virginia Tech
Boise State

Next Seven
TCU
Cincinnati
Miami (FL)
Ohio State
USC
Iowa
LSU

The only team I debated about moving up was Nebraska. Which team on my list are they better than though? Maybe Iowa or LSU, but Iowa is undefeated and LSU's loss is (slightly) better. If LSU lays an egg against inferior competition again, maybe I'll elevate Nebraska.

Let me know what you think in the comments.

Sunday 10/11

Next time I say on Monday, "wow, this college card isn't very good this week," someone stop me from playing 11 games like an idiot.

A special thank you to the Arizona Wildcats today. It takes a special kind of suck to blow a 33-21 lead with three minutes to go in the ball game.

All of these were floated last night, so that's why the prices might be different than what is currently available.

1p St. Louis +10 +105 5x
1p Tampa Bay +15.5 +101 3x
1p Oakland +15 +101 3x
1p Detroit +10.5 +101 3x
415p Denver +3 +103 5x
--------------------------
820p Tennessee +3 +115 8x
820p IND/TEN u44 -101 3x

I'll be on Tenny at least for a 5x play tonight when I get home from work. Good luck today.

Saturday 10/10

Thanks to Jonny for pointing out that my lean was PURDUE, not Minny. That would have been embarrassing.

As I mentioned last night, this card was easy to put together. I'll be interested to see how it differs from other cards in Contrarianville, because there isn't a whole lot of wiggle room for plays today.

Played Last Night
12p Syracuse +10 +102 3x
12p Illinois +4 +101 5x
12p Purdue +3 +105 3x
1220p Tennessee -1.5 +104 3x
330p Mississippi +4.5 -101 5x
330p Ohio State -16 +108 3x
330p UCLA +3.5 -105 3x
8p Florida -7 -106 3x
10p Arizona -3.5 +100 3x

I might add some games on later this afternoon. Good luck. We're going to need it.

Add-ons
8p Iowa -8 +103 3x
8p Florida -10 +100 2x
10p UNLV +17 -102 3x

Since I was 2-0 on my passes earlier, I'm sure these will each lose by two touchdowns.

Leans NFL Week 5/CFB Week 6 Revisited

I haven't struggled at all coming up with this week's card. It's about as clear as I can remember. Which means I'll be looking at -35x Tuesday morning.

Definite Plays
12p Illinois +4 vs. Sparty
12p Minny -3 vs. Purdue
12p Cuse +10 vs. WVU
1220p Tenny -1.5 vs. UGa
330p Ole Miss +4.5 vs. Bama
330p tOSU -16 vs. Wisky
330p UCLA +3.5 vs. Oregon
8p Florida -7 -106 3x vs. LSU
10p Ariz -3.5 @ Wash

1p TB +15.5 @ PHL
1p OAK +15 @ NYG
1p DET +10.5 vs. PIT
1p STL +10 vs. MIN
415p DEN +3 vs. NE
820p TEN +3.5 vs. IND
830p MIA +1 vs. NYJ (Mon.)

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p Arky +2.5 vs. Auburn
12p VT -13.5 vs. BC
8p Iowa -8 vs. Mich
8p FSU -3 vs. GT

1p BAL -9 vs. CIN

Borderline Volume Plays
6p Colo St +8 vs. Utah
10p UNLV +17 vs. BYU

For the games tomorrow, the most likely sides to get added are UNLV, Iowa, and FSU, in that order. I'll make the final decision on those in the afternoon.

Thursday 10/8

Thank you, Phillies, for having a home playoff game, allowing me to scoop tickets tonight's Flyers/Pens game for half off.

I was trying to find a way to get Nebraska on the card tonight, but it's split action everywhere. Plus, wanting to play a side is usually a bad sign.

Good luck tonight.

Millman on Placing Wagers Late

From Millman's latest column:

Bet early in the week and you are essentially betting against an oddsmaker who, with advice from some consultants and his staff, puts up what he considers to be the best number. Bet late in the week and you are betting against the collective IQ of hundreds of wise guys who pounded the value out of the number within the first 48 hours it was up. It's essentially like buying stock in Apple a week after the iPhone comes out, because you really want a chance to research it. Meanwhile, the pros on the Street made their money the first 24 hours and then cashed out.

Which I agree with for the most part. However, for the contrarian, the analogy fails. In the stock market, you don't have a bunch of people coming in and betting against the iPhone after it is released. If that were the case, you would create a market inefficiency between the true and perceived values of Apple. In the sports market, that inefficiency exists and can be leveraged if properly identified.

And that's why I believe contrarianism works. At least for now.

Saturday 10/10 A Little Early

There is little doubt in my mind this is going to blow up in my face.

8p Florida -7 -106 3x

The logic isn't too hard to follow here. Teblow -10 was going to be a play. There is some question whether Teblow is going to play, but indications from most Florida blogs/boards are that he's practicing with no contact, which makes me think he'll play (otherwise why practice at all), therefore UF -7 should be value. Of course, as a Penn State fan, I remember quite fondly Daryll Clark's concussed performance last year versus Iowa. Hopefully, the extra week will be enough for the Jesus Child to prepare for Death Valley.

Leans NFL Week 5/CFB Week 6

I did not think I would ever see a week where I have more definite plays in the pros as college. I suppose that's what happens when "after three weeks, we invariably know whether the season will be... relatively easy to figure out."

Definite Plays
12p Cuse +10 vs. WVU
12p Ill +4.5 vs. Sparty
1220p Tenny -2 vs. Aub
10p Ariz -2.5 vs. Wash

1p STL +10 vs. MIN
1p TB +13.5 @ PHL
1p OAK +16 @ NYG
415p DEN +3 vs. NE
820p TEN +3.5 vs. IND
835p MIA +1 vs. NYJ (Mon.)

• You think the books are reacting to the public sentiment that the league is "easy" this year? I might lose 25x on Sunday.

Borderline Contrarian Plays
9p Neb -3 @ Mizz (Thu.)
9p LaTech +10.5 @ Nev (Fri.)
12p Arky +3 vs. Aub
330p tOSU -16.5 vs. Wisky
330p UCLA +4 vs. Ore
8p FSU -2.5 vs. GT
8p UF -7.5 vs. LSU
8p Iowa -8 vs. Mich

1p KC +9 vs. DAL
1p CLE +6 @ BUF
1p BAL -9 vs. CIN

• Lots of garbage chalk out there on the college card.
• I'm not going to need to see a lot to pull the trigger on the Huskers or Bulldogs.
• I'm slightly surprised at the early Wagerline numbers for Arky/Aub. I thought Auburn would be obviously public with the press they are getting.
• If the UF line was -10 like it was when it opened, I would have it as a definite. Obviously, that's pending Teblow.
• Masoli is doubtful for Oregon. Not sure how that will play out this week with the public.
• I feel like all three of those borderline NFL leans would be obvious plays any other week.

Borderline Volume Plays
6p CSU +7.5 vs. Utah
10p UNLV +16.5 vs. BYU
11p Fresno -9.5 @ Hawaii

• After seeing what's happened to Florida State, isn't it possible that BYU sucks (and by extension, so does Oklahoma)?
• I haven't seen Hawaii getting that many on the island in a long time to a team that's not Boise.

I'm hating Sunday already.

CFB Week 6 Line Guess Results

Sham beat me by almost a full point (2.35 avg error vs. 3.24), though, as he points out, it's almost entirely due to me having no idea to how value a couple of lesser conference teams. I'm over it, since this exercise isn't for me to show how smart I am (or dumb, as it were), but to learn how to properly value teams, so I don't think stupid things like "PSU should be favored by 18 on the road against Illinois." Discussion follows.



Sham: I'll start with my most egregious error, listing Texas as only a 24-point favorite at home against Colorado. In week 3 Texas was favored by 19.5 at home against my favorite coach's squad, Texas Tech. Clearly, Texas Tech would be more than a single-digit favorite at home against Colorado. I'll blame that one on my sinuses.

am19psu: Dude, trust me, you have nothing to be ashamed of. Look at some of the misses I made in the shitty conferences. Also, WTF was with my tOSU line.

Sham: There were a few missteps in the shittier conferences, but in those particular games what are the chances that those games will be anti-public sides? Very few. If you look at games that will attract more attention (money) I think you did a better job of nailing those.

A line that surprised me was Arizona/Washington. Washington played LSU tough at home and beat USC. Arizona should be no problem. I think back to a couple of weeks ago when Arizona opened as a fav at Oregon St before the huge line movement put the Beavs as favorites. Looks like the oddsmakers like Arizona a bit more than everyone else.

am19psu: Agreed about the lesser conferences and about UW/UA. I don't think we were the only ones surprised either.

I was a little unhappy about the Nebraska line. We both had it opening higher. If we were right, we would definitely be on them Thursday night. As it is, I probably will be anyway.

Sham: I think I nailed the Nebraska line (-2.5), now it's at 3 which is encouraging. I mean they haven't won a game on the road against a ranked squad since 1997. The only other team who can say that is the football powerhouse in Durham. As long as the consensus #s aren't skewed in Nebraska's favor I'll have a tough time not making a homer play.

Is it me or is this card completely underwhelming? Initial looks are Nebraska, Arizona, Colorado St., Illinois & Tenny. Not thrilled about the last two for whatever reason. I'm sure come Saturday I'll have double-digits plays though.

am19psu: Oh wow, it's up to 2.5 now? It opened at 1 last night at the Greek. Guess the sharps thought the same we did. I hate to agree with Stewie, but Nebraska is an underrated football team right now.

I agree with all of your leans, minus Colo St (based only on low volume), but plus UF and maybe tOSU (-16, really?).

Do you think there's any chance we end up on the Bulldogs on another weeknight shitfest?

Sham: 1? I'm a bit surprised by that, but it's good that the sharps have faith in Nebraska, who should by all accounts be undefeated.

I could see Florida rounding into a play on a weak card with the injury to Tebow and LSU winning on this past week at Georgia, but last year Florida whipped LSU. At this point I'm hesitant to pull the trigger.

One thing that concerns me with La Tech is their inability to take advantage of Nevada's less than steller secondary. tOSU is down to -14, FWIW.

am19psu: I'll be interested to see if the public remembers that Nevada stinks this year or if they will just remember the last two weeks.

I think this was good enough for a first run through. Let's see what it looks like this week and decide how to adjust going forward.

Monday 10/5

No real surprise here. Time to ruin what has been an otherwise outstanding week.

845p GB/MIN u46 +101 3x

Good luck.

CFB Week 6 Line Guesses

This is the first installment with Sham as an opponent. We were off on quite a few games, mostly because I was plum retarded about a few teams. Discussion and results will be posted tomorrow night.

Week 5 Mumme Poll

I'm participating in the Mumme Poll this year. This week's ballot is a dry run and doesn't actually count. I'm going to post a draft of my ballot on Sunday afternoons to make sure I didn't screw anything up. Monday night, I'll submit my final ballot before the 9p deadline.

Top Five
Florida
Alabama
Texas
Virginia Tech
Boise State

The Rest
Southern Cal
Iowa
Ohio State
LSU
Miami
TCU
Cincinnati

Note: order doesn't matter and I didn't take any time to separate the above into an ordered 1-5 and 6-12. I would imagine the biggest gripe will be leaving undefeated LSU out of the Top 5 while having Boise and VT in. My rationale is that LSU is going to be a double digit dog at home against Florida next week if Tebow plays, and I don't think that would be true for Tech or Boise.

Feel free to tell me where you think I am wrong in the comments.

Sunday 10/4

Busy again today. I hope I'm back in time to check out the late games.

Earlies
1p Jacksonville +3 +109 3x
1p Cleveland +6.5 +100 3x
1p Kansas City +8 +103 3x

Late Games
405p Miami -1 -109 3x
415p St. Louis +9.5 -108 3x
415p Denver +2.5 +103 3x

These late games are ugly as hell.

Nightcap
820p Pittsburgh -6 +107 5x

Here is where the day goes from mediocre to awful.

Saturday 10/3

Some of these prices are different than what is currently available because I put all of these in last night.

12p Syracuse +6.5 +100 5x
12p Minnesota -2.5 -107 3x
12p Duke +16.5 +103 5x
12p Michigan State -3.5 -104 3x
1220p Kentucky +15.5 +103 3x
330p Notre Dame -12.5 +105 3x
745p Tennessee -3 +113 3x

At the least, I can see myself adding on UTEP tonight. We'll see about anything else.

9p UTEP +14.5 -110 3x

Good luck today.

Leans NFL Week 4/CFB Week 5 Revisited

Not much change this week. I'm not excited about laying this much chalk, but all of them look pretty ugly, so it's at least justifiable.

Definite Plays
12p Sparty -3.5 vs. Mich
12p Duke +16.5
12p Cuse +6.5 vs. USF
12p Minny -2.5 vs. Wisky
330p ND -11.5 vs. Wash
745p Tenny -2.5 vs. Auburn

1p CLE +5.5 vs. CIN
1p KC +9 vs. NYG
1p JAX +3 vs. TEN
820p PIT -6.5 vs. SD

Borderline Contrarian Plays
12p UMd +12.5 vs. Clem
12p UVa +13 @ UNC
330p BC +3.5 vs. FSU
330p Stan -5 vs. UCLA

1p NE -1 vs. BAL
405p NO -7 vs. NYJ
405p MIA +1 vs. BUF
415p STL +9.5 vs. SF

Borderline Volume Plays
4p UNLV +5.5 @ Nevada
9p UTEP +14 vs. Houston

415p DEN +3 vs. DAL

I really don't see a way around UTEP.

Friday 10/2

Remarkably, I'm passing both the Aggies and the Cardinals. This looks like split action to me on both teams. I certainly don't think there is enough of an edge that the books are shading the line, despite the likely higher volume. Leans coming later tonight. Good luck if you play either.

Thursday 10/1

Well, last night was so easy, let's see how tonight can cockpunch me.

8p UAB +10 +100 3x

There are two reasons to pass this game: Deandre Brown and Damion Fletcher are out tonight and the line pushed down to 9 earlier today but is back up to the open of 10.5 currently. Neither of those was enough to keep me away from this game, though, at least not on a Thursday night.